tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
. 2021 Dec 7;118(49):e2108395118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2108395118.
How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology
Naomi R Waterlow[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Edwin van Leeuwen[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Nicholas G Davies[SUP] 2 [/SUP], CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Stefan Flasche[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Rosalind M Eggo[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronaviruses; cross-protection; immunity.
. 2021 Dec 7;118(49):e2108395118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2108395118.
How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology
Naomi R Waterlow[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Edwin van Leeuwen[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Nicholas G Davies[SUP] 2 [/SUP], CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Stefan Flasche[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Rosalind M Eggo[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34873059
- DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2108395118
Abstract
We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronaviruses; cross-protection; immunity.