Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

[tropical]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Anne Z:
Does the process by which a pandemic strain is arrived at affect probability.
Recombination?
Random mutations?

It does, essentialy. Main input variables for the probability equation.
Naturaly or not, recombination or random, ...

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Anne Z:
Does the process by which a pandemic strain is arrived at affect probability.
Recombination?
Random mutations?

It does, essentialy. Main input variables for the probability equation.
Naturaly or not, recombination or random, ...

Is it easier to calcluate for recombination?

 

[tropical]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Is it easier to calcluate for recombination?

If the process is random, you have probably more "free grades" than if it is not.

 

[tropical]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

With respect,
I have to agree with a previous comment by gsg that we don't have the depth of experts willing to participate in this FT debate in order to come up with some reasonable probabilities.
That's not meant to dissuade participation or comment; however, it is a general request for an analytical framework when considering probabilities.
It just seems to my limited mind that the opinions of the populace on the liklihood of a pandemic involves a completely different research methodology than the question of H5N1's ability or inability to mutate towards pandemic potential.
I would like to see the social scientist who read FT to delve into the question of estimating and expressing through some number, index or indicator (doomsday clock ?) our fears or indiference about a pandemic.
At the same time I would like to understand from the mathematical, natural science and epidemiolocal worlds whether probability estimates could be generated for the various biological changes necessary, and the animal interactions necessary, for pandemic development.

I agreed that this will put some real points.
The WHO have/not have (?), officialy to deliver such an estimate?
If we realy want to see this info (not in this thread - it is proclamed to be an idividual sensitive opinion), an real scientific estimate about an human pandemic (not only for 5 years, but 3 or 6 months, 1 or 2 years),
maybe is necessary to found a formal way to ask the public scientific experts (WHO, CDC, etc.) to publicate on an scientific journal (Nature, ...) their result of this analytical framework of pandemic probabilities.

And even from the financial/economic worlds, where business and stock cycles, and the social/psych basis for them, have been studied ad infinitum, how would they model and estimate the probability for a pandemic?

The media reported an fin./ec. study result taken at G8. The study is classified, or for public (?) maybe somebody have this info.

We can calculate the expected number of accidents due to the curvature in highway cloverleafs; we can predict when a tiger is going to strike ("Life of Pi"); we can write complex programs to make money; and we can survey the populance with an accuracy of 19 times out of 20.

So what are the experts thinking about the probability of a lethal, influenza pandemic?

Good point to start.
Here are some news from "FluWiki", how last month, a collaboration of European and Asian researchers launched a new attack against the deadly bird flu virus, harnessing the combined power of more than 40,000 computers across 45 countries to boost the pace of anti-viral drug discovery.

Chinese University Uses EGEE to Battle Bird Flu
From "GridToday":
http://www.gridtoday.com/grid/1817079.html

Breaking News:
Chinese University Uses EGEE to Battle Bird Flu

BUDAPEST, Hungary, Oct. 4 -- Last month, a collaboration of European and Asian researchers launched a new attack against the deadly bird flu virus, harnessing the combined power of more than 40,000 computers across 45 countries to boost the pace of anti-viral drug discovery.

Called Enabling Grids for E-sciencE, the computing grid connects ordinary PCs to form a super-sized supercomputer that is being used during this challenge to analyze the potential of more than 500,000 drug-like molecules over the next few weeks.

This effort comes as new data released last week by Peking University in Beijing, China, shows that the H5N1 bird flu virus can pass through the placenta of pregnant women to the unborn fetus, and can infect organs other than the lungs in adults. A rapid response to any pandemic outbreak of the virus would be essential to its control.

Dr. Ying-Ta Wu, biologist at the Genomics Research Center of the Academia Sinica, says computing grids like EGEE are the fastest and cheapest way to discover new drug leads.

“We are using EGEE to find new molecules that can inhibit the activities of the influenza virus,” explained Wu. “During previous challenges using the EGEE grid we discovered about 200 molecules with the potential to become drugs against bird flu.”

The EGEE computing grid powers drug discovery software that allows researchers to compute the probability that a drug-like molecule will dock with active sites on the virus and thus inhibit its action. Using the results of such in silico screening, researchers can predict which compounds are most effective at blocking the virus. This accelerates the discovery of novel potent inhibitors by minimizing the non-productive trial-and-error approach in a laboratory.

“Asian flu remains a threat to world health and we are well aware that any pandemic could quickly spread throughout Europe," said Viviane Reding, European commissioner for Information Society and Media. "I am pleased that the European project EGEE has found such an important application for computer grid technology as speeding-up drug discovery against neglected and emerging diseases. Collaboration between Europe and Asia is essential if we are to address world wide threats to public health."

At the EGEE’07 conference in Budapest, Ulf Dahlsten, director of Emerging Technologies and Infrastructures in the Information Society and Media Directorate-General of the European Commission, used the example of EGEE’s success with bird flu to illustrate the potential contributions of e-Infrastructures to science. "Computer grids have achieved a productivity increase of more than 6,000 percent in the identification of potential new drugs," he said. "300,000 molecules have already been screened using the EGEE grid. Of these, 123 potential inhibitors were identified, of which seven have now been shown to act as inhibitors in in-vitro laboratory tests. This is a 6 percent success rate compared to typical values of around 0.1 percent using classical drug discovery methods."

About EGEE

The Enabling Grids for E-sciencE (EGEE) project is funded by the European Commission. The project aims to provide researchers in both academia and industry with access to major computing resources, independent of their geographic location. For more information see http://www.eu-egee.org/

Source: EGEE

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Laidback Al, tropical, you won't write these 100% thingies in my probability thread
without me objecting...
There is some chance, that mankind will die before the next pandemic comes.
We might be able to beat flu-viruses in some decades, so we can prevent
flu-pandemics.

Annez, it isn't really calculated, more estimated.
You could split it into independent events/questions and answer them separately
and estimate their probabilities. That should increase the reliability of the estimate.

pandemic from an existing, known, unchanged strain
pandemic through point-mutations only
pandemic from a reassorted virus
pandemic from a virus recombined from reasonably different other viruses

and then split these again etc.

and then ask the experts for their estimates on each of the sub-questions,
and watch where they disagree most and let them discuss that.

 

[tropical]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Laidback Al, tropical, you won't write these 100% thingies in my probability thread without me objecting...

If you read carefully, we didn't write anywhere texts of 100% probabilyties that it will happen in 1, 2, 10, or 50 years. Quite the oposite.

Laidback Al statement
This is worth repeating. It is 100% certain that there will be another pandemic. We just don't know when. So planning for it just makes good practical sense.

This 100% event is an math apstraction, because is stated without an time dimension. Like "it is 100% certain that the great piramides will fall in dust", yes, but when?

The 100% here is because we know that during the human history were few flu pandemic for sure. Than, mathematicaly, there are no reasons why this events must stop now, and because of this, some kind of flu pandemic will 100% certainly came, but for this thread discussion probabilities it is unknown when.

From me:
<TABLE class=tborder style="BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 103511" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Cindie</TD><TD class=alt2>I voted 90 to 100% and think at this point I would have voted the same in a 2 year pole. ...
...
_____
If 100%, than I must get some answers


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I wrote:
<TABLE class=tborder style="BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 103502" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>AnneZ</TD><TD class=alt2>Does the probability of a pandemic increase over time?
Mathematicaly speaking: if this is natural matter, than the imput variables are enaugh mixed that nobody knows for shure...
A free shot: the probability must increase...


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

If somebody here have the power, I think the times are mature for:
(*)
is necessary to found a formal way to ask the public scientific experts (WHO, CDC, etc.) to publicate on an scientific journal (Nature, ...) their result of this analytical framework of pandemic probabilities.

There is some chance, that mankind will die before the next pandemic comes. ...

Many mass extinctions possibilities exists, indeed.

Annez, it isn't really calculated, more estimated.

You can get the "calculated %" only from an scientific research publication.
Like wroted in (*).

If this is unaceptable, then FT must form one multidisciplinar team for "scientific calculations of pandemic probabilities", an equipe of eminent researchers, and than you maybe got an detailed answer.
Is it possible on FT?
This will be the hardly way of doing estimates here...

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

I think, the experts should do it, not FT.
As the CDC-panels in 1976.

would you also consider another cholera pandemic as 100% ?
Plague ? Advacing science can eliminate diseases,
no matter about history.

 

[tropical]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

I think, the experts should do it, not FT.
As the CDC-panels in 1976.

would you also consider another cholera pandemic as 100% ?
Plague ? Advacing science can eliminate diseases,
no matter about history.

:yinyang:
Obviously it is better that WHO experts should do it, but you put your commentaryes on a FT thread of subjective post of private opinions!



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Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?
<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Please make a subjective post on your opinion as to the probability of a H5N1 pandemic occuring in the next 5 years.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Cholera and plague are not flu viruses!

Now you negate the possibility of an flu pandemic at all, or near...
WHO warnings are illusions? Than prove it!
I think that yours want to be an anti-preparedness statement.
Why your perseverance of downplaying the risk of a novel flu?

Is it so important the % number of a probability?
If somebody calculate that is 100%, something can change, and there will be no pandemic.
If somebody calculate 0%, something can change, and the pandemic will starts.

Prepared the health, and other sectors without doing the preps years before an pandemic is not possible. It's logic, you don't need calculations.
For that reason, the start of this preparations must coming from the official establishments, not from citizens!

This FT thread is "for citizens", and about their:
"subjective post on your opinion as to the probability ... "
_____

And now I think is time to leave the wires and enjoy the nature during the weekend...:tiphat:

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

I just found an interesting survey by Fischhoff, why experts
are reluctant to give probability estimates.
http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/fischhoff/IST Communicating Uncertainty.pdf


Fischhoff and Brilliant had asked 15 experts and 15 "experts"
in late 2005 for their estimates
http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewtopic.php?t=29&mforum=fluwiki2


about Fischhoff:
http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/people/faculty/baruch-fischhoff.html



summary, comments

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
headlines:

BARUCH FISCHHOFF
Communicating Uncertainty , Fulfilling the Duty to Inform
==============================================================
Scientists are often hesitant to share their uncertainty with decisionmakers
who need to know it. With an understanding of the reasons for their
reluctance, decisionmakers can create the conditions needed to facilitate
better communication.
----------------------------------------------
Reasons for reluctance:
Experts see uncertainty as misplaced imprecision.
Experts do not expect uncertainties to be understood.
Experts anticipate being criticized for communicating uncertainty.
Experts do not know how to express their uncertainties
-------------------------------------------------
Explanation of uncertainty terms in intelligence analysis
What we mean when we say: An explanation of estimative language
----------------------------------------------------
The decisionmakers’ role
If experts see little value in expressing their uncertainty,show how decisions depend on it
If experts fear being misunderstood, insist that they trust their audience
If experts anticipate being punished for candor, stand by them
If experts are unsure how to express themselves, provide standard means.

FIGURE 1
Judgments of “the probability that H5N1 will become an efficient
human-to-human transmitter (capable of being propagated through
at least two epidemiological generations of humans) some time
during the next 3 years.

TABLE 1
Brier Score Decomposition for evaluating probabilistic forecasts
* Knowledge
* Resolution
* Calibration

TABLE 2
Boundary conditions on experimental tasks studying
decisionmaking performance

FIGURE 3
Recommended box plot for expressing uncertainty

TABLE 3
FAQ for experts worried about providing subjective probability judgments
Concern 1: People will misinterpret them, inferring greater precision than I intended
Concern 2: People cannot use probabilities.
Concern 3: My credible intervals will be used unfairly in performance evaluations

Recommended reading
B. Fischhoff, N. Brewer, and J. S. Downs, eds., Communicating Risks and
Benefits: An Evidence-Based User’s Guide (Washington, DC: U.S. Food
and Drug Administration, 2011).
B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds., Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and
Social Science Foundations (Washington, DC: National Academies Press,2011).
B. Fischhoff and J. Kadvany, Risk: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 2011).
R. Gregory, L. Failing, M. Harstone, G. Long, T. McDaniels, and D. Ohlson,
Structured Decisionmaking (Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012).
M. G. Morgan, B. Fischhoff, A. Bostrom, and C. Atman, Risk
Communication: A Mental Models Approach (New York: Cambridge
University Press, 2002).
A. H. Murphy and R. L. Winkler, “Probability Forecasting in Meteorology,”
Journal of the American Statistical Association 79 (1984): 489–500.
National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow (Washington,
DC: National Academies Press, 2011).
R. A. Nickerson, “How We Know—and Sometimes Misjudge—What Others Know:
Imputing Our Own Knowledge to Others,” Psychological Bulletin 125 (1999): 737–759.
A. O’Hagan et al., Uncertain Judgments: Eliciting Expert Probabilities
(Chichester, UK: Wiley, 2006).
P. E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We
Know? (Princ eton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006).

 

[gsgs]

Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

searching google blogs for Fischhoff and H5N1 gives 14 hits:

Mental Health Considerations During a Pandemic Influenza Outbreak
ispub.com/.../mental-health-considerations-during-a...‎
29.12.2009 - Communities may be facing a similar set of circumstances with the H5N1
virus or the recurrent H1N1. Past pandemics and other disasters indicate that ....
De Bruin W, Fischhoff B, Brilliant L, et al.: Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks.

US Unlikely to Have Enough Vaccines to Stop Avian Flu | Cap ...
capphantom.org/war/us-unlikely.../index.plane‎ von swznd
14.09.2010 - ?The medical experts' estimates suggest this is a bigger risk than anything
else we are facing,? said Baruch Fischhoff, a study co-author and the Howard Heinz
University Professor of Social and Decision Sciences and Engineering and Public Policy
at Carnegie Mellon. Both the medical and the ... ?I suspect we're going to see further
spread of H5N1 into other countries,? he said, referring to the deadly and virulent strain
of the virus. ?This is very similar to the virus that ...

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www.domkredytowy24.pl/.../tomato-plant-home-de... von admin
25.03.2013 - Health doctors worry what's going to be the highly rated pathogenic H5N1
avian influenza being infected that re-emerged on Asia all over the 2003 along so that
you have spread largely to learn more about much in the way much more ....
?The medical experts' estimates it's this can be the case an all in one larger risk than
anything a lot more a number of us are facing,? said Baruch Fischhoff,a multi functional
spend some time studying co-author and going to be the ...

Flu Wiki Forum:: Leadership and Moral Courage 2 - Dear Secy Leavitt
www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1338‎ von susanc
13.06.2007 - Fischhoff's questioning in Nov.2005: (IMO the questions were badly formulated,
we already have h2h already). ---------------------------------- Question: what is the probability that
H5N1 will become an efficient human-to-human ...

White House Predict Over 62 Million US Bird Flu Deaths | Soandso ...
www.soandso.org/.../white-house-predict-over-62-...‎ von Mark Nicco
30.05.2012 - The H5N1 virus has killed at least 300 people out of 600 known human
cases and ravaged poultry stocks. The 1918-19 ?Spanish influenza? pandemic ...
?The medical experts' estimates suggest this is a bigger risk than anything else we
are facing,? said Baruch Fischhoff, a study co-author and the Howard Heinz University
Professor of Social and Decision Sciences and Engineering and Public Policy at
Carnegie Mellon. Both the medical and the non-medical experts ...

A Journey Through The World of Pandemic Influenza: Credibility ...
birdflujourney.typepad.com/.../credibility-and.html‎ Im von sophiazoe
29.06.2008 - Significant news on the PanFlu and H5N1 front has been rather slow,
mostly just more of the same. More plans coming out, ... Not knowing whom or what
to believe can make risk decisions seem intractable (Fischhoff, 1992).

MIT - Coorporation: Indonesia 'failed in its response to bird flu'
basri-ict.blogspot.com/.../indonesia-failed-in-its-resp...‎von basriblog
19.04.2009 - Unlike many city dwellers who can choose not to be exposed to live
poultry -- the main carrier of the H5N1 virus -- for many people in developing nations
it is a luxury they cannot afford. Suhadi, 71, and his wife ...... Many of the suggestions
below will also help in other emergency situations. (The original checklist can be found at http://pandemicflu.gov/plan/businesschecklist.html.) Modeling: Visualizing Your
Vulnerabilities by Baruch Fischhoff Valuable as it is as an ...

Bird Flu News: Medical Experts: US Unlikely To Have Enough ...
birds-flu-news.blogspot.com/.../medical-experts-us-...‎ von blogger
16.04.2011 - Although the federal government has expressed a commitment to open
communication about these risks, its messages have not yet been scientifically evaluated,
according to Fischhoff. The survey results were co-authored by Larry Brilliant with the
Google Foundation and Denise Caruso with the ... Possible Future Avian Influenza
Pandemic May Be Ea... Female Farmer Had H5N1 Bird Flu Infection, China C...
Sanofi Pasteur Begins Shipments Of Influenza Vacci.

Little Malcolm's Swimming Pool: Nuclear Waste - Public Mistrust
littlemalcolms.blogspot.com/.../nuclear-waste-public...‎von Little Malcolm's Swimming Pool
14.08.2010 - Eugene A. Rosa, Seth P. Tuler, Baruch Fischhoff, Thomas Webler,
Sharon M. Friedman, Richard E. Sclove, Kristin Shrader-Frechette, Mary R. English,
Roger E. Kasperson, Robert L. Goble, Thomas M. Leschine, William ...

Bio-Tremplins : la biologie vit et ?volue. L'enseignement aussi ...
tecfa-bio-news.blogspot.com/.../h1n1-pourquoi-une...‎ von lombardf
28.11.2009 - Et qu'ils r?duisent en se vaccinant le risque d'une recombinaison H5N1 ?
tueuse mais peu contagieuse ? avec H1N1 ? contagieuse mais peu tueuse ? qui pourrait
causer une ?pid?mie catastrophique. Bio-Tremplins (8nov. .... Mandavilli Apoorva (2007)
Unreasonable doubt http://www.nature.com/news/2007/070615/full/news070611-13.html;
Nature 15 June 2007| doi:10.1038/news070611-13; Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein,
S. (1980). Facts and fears: ...

T?i ơi, đừng sợ! | Tin tức mới trong ng?ywww.dhm-hnou.edu.vn/giao-duc/toi-ơi-dừng-sợ/‎
07.02.2012 - Paul Slovic v? Baruch Fischhoff đ? nhận diện rất nhiều yếu tố t?m l? t?c
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sợ c?m A/H1N1 (c?m heo) nhưng kh?ng ?t người người qu?n rằng c?m A/H5N1 (c?m g?)
v?i năm trước đ? c?n đ?ng sợ hơn. Thật vậy, trong khi tỷ lệ tử vong khi mắc c?m A/H5N1
l? hơn 50% th? tỷ lệ tử vong do c?m A/H1N1 ...

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26.03.2013 - Health physicians worry so how do you the highly rated pathogenic
H5N1 avian influenza disease that re-emerged upon Asia all over the 2003 along
to have spread extensively to learn more about much in the way significantly more ....
of us are facing,? said Baruch Fischhoff,an all in one spend time researching co-author
and the Howard Heinz Collage Professor of Social together leaving Decision Sciences
and Anatomist and Public Policy within Carnegie Mellon.

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24.03.2013 - Health experts worry how the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird influenza
virus that re-emerged in Asia in 2003 along with spread widely to much more than
60 countries has now mutated all of which spread between people, sparking the ...
?The medical experts' estimates suggest this can be a bigger risk than anything
more we are facing, ? said Baruch Fischhoff, a study co-author and the Howard
Heinz Collage Professor of Social together with Decision Sciences and ...

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