Niko
Editor, Senior Moderator
Preparations for a Flu Pandemic
The New York Times
Editorial
October 28, 2006
The World Health Organization?s new plan for ramping up the production of flu vaccine is a measure of how unprepared the world is to cope with an onslaught of pandemic influenza. The plan, conceived by a group of more than 120 experts, lays out a sensible path toward vaccine sufficiency? but it will take years to complete and cost up to $10 billion.
There are no signs yet that the influenza strain causing the greatest concern ? a virulent form of avian flu ? is ready to sweep through human populations. So far it has infected only 256 people in 10 countries ? mostly people in close contact with chickens in Asia ? but the highly lethal pathogen has killed some 60 percent of those.
Fortunately, it has not yet developed the ability to spread easily from one person to another, the critical transition for unleashing a pandemic. But if this strain or another does, it will move so rapidly there will be little chance of containing it ? unless we start preparing now.
This week, the W.H.O. warned that if a flu pandemic were to occur, the global vaccine supply would fall several billion doses short. It recommended three overlapping responses: increasing the use of vaccines in the normal flu season so that manufacturers are encouraged to expand capacity; new techniques to raise production yields; and development of more potent vaccines that could provide broad and long-lasting immunity.
The price tag would be $3 billion to $10 billion for a global effort that might yield results in three to five years, provided action started now. The Bush administration?s pledge of $10 million to W.H.O. to help other countries develop vaccines and manufacturing capacity is prompt but woefully short.
The administration has also invested substantially in vaccine research, including $1 billion to develop new cell-based technologies that would allow rapid expansion of production in an emergency. Although those investments are primarily for our own benefit, the knowledge generated is likely to help others around the world.
Still, both the American and global efforts ought to be intensified. The administration?s goal of being able to make enough vaccine quickly to protect all Americans is also probably four to five years away. Neither America nor the rest of the world is yet ready to handle a worst-case pandemic.
Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/28/opinion/28sat4.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
The New York Times
Editorial
October 28, 2006
The World Health Organization?s new plan for ramping up the production of flu vaccine is a measure of how unprepared the world is to cope with an onslaught of pandemic influenza. The plan, conceived by a group of more than 120 experts, lays out a sensible path toward vaccine sufficiency? but it will take years to complete and cost up to $10 billion.
There are no signs yet that the influenza strain causing the greatest concern ? a virulent form of avian flu ? is ready to sweep through human populations. So far it has infected only 256 people in 10 countries ? mostly people in close contact with chickens in Asia ? but the highly lethal pathogen has killed some 60 percent of those.
Fortunately, it has not yet developed the ability to spread easily from one person to another, the critical transition for unleashing a pandemic. But if this strain or another does, it will move so rapidly there will be little chance of containing it ? unless we start preparing now.
This week, the W.H.O. warned that if a flu pandemic were to occur, the global vaccine supply would fall several billion doses short. It recommended three overlapping responses: increasing the use of vaccines in the normal flu season so that manufacturers are encouraged to expand capacity; new techniques to raise production yields; and development of more potent vaccines that could provide broad and long-lasting immunity.
The price tag would be $3 billion to $10 billion for a global effort that might yield results in three to five years, provided action started now. The Bush administration?s pledge of $10 million to W.H.O. to help other countries develop vaccines and manufacturing capacity is prompt but woefully short.
The administration has also invested substantially in vaccine research, including $1 billion to develop new cell-based technologies that would allow rapid expansion of production in an emergency. Although those investments are primarily for our own benefit, the knowledge generated is likely to help others around the world.
Still, both the American and global efforts ought to be intensified. The administration?s goal of being able to make enough vaccine quickly to protect all Americans is also probably four to five years away. Neither America nor the rest of the world is yet ready to handle a worst-case pandemic.
Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/28/opinion/28sat4.html?_r=1&oref=slogin