Gert van der Hoek
In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
google translated
Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck (Institute of Virology)
Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute for Clinical Chemistry and Clinical
Pharmacology, spokesman for the Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2
)
Prof. Dr. Martin Exner (Institute for Hygiene and Public Health)
Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute for Medical Biometry, Computer Science and
Epidemiology)
University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, April 9, 2020
Background:
The community of Gangelt is one of the strongest in Germany
COVID19 affected places in Germany. It is believed that
Infection events due to a carnival meeting on February 15, 2020
is because several people tested SARSCoV2 positive after this session
were. The carnival session and the outbreak of the session is currently underway
examined more closely. It became a representative sample from the community
Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) moved to the district of Heinsberg. The
World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol that varies depending on
expected prevalence randomly 100 to 300 households are examined.
This sample was coordinated with its representativeness with Prof. Manfred
G?llner (Forsa).
Goal:
The goal of the study is to keep the level of going through and still
SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected) taking place in the community
Gait to determine. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2
Immunity can be determined.
Method:
A form letter was sent to approximately 600 households. Overall took
approx. 1000 inhabitants from approx. 400 households took part in the study. There were questionnaires
collected, throat swabs taken and blood for the presence of antibodies (IgG,
IgA) tested. The intermediate results and go into this first evaluation
Inferences from approx. 500 people.
Preliminary result:
An existing immunity of approx. 14% (antiSARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method>, 99%) was determined. About 2% of the
Individuals had a current SARS-CoV-2 determined using the PCR method
Infection on. The infection rate (current infection or already gone through) was
a total of approx. 15%. The lethality (case fatality rate) based on the total number of
Infected in the community of Gangelt is based on the preliminary data from this
Study about 0.37%. Currently in Germany from Johns-Hopkins University
calculated lethality is 1.98% and is 5 times higher. The
Mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.06%.
Preliminary conclusion: the 5- calculated by Johns-Hopkins University
The mortality rate, which is several times higher than in this study in Gangelt, is explained by
different reference size of the infected. This study is getting going
all infected people in the sample, including those with asymptomatic and
mild gradients. Gangelt is the proportion of the population that is already
Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has developed approximately 15%. This means that yourself
15% of the population in Gangelt can no longer be infected with SARS-CoV-2, and
the process is already in place until herd immunity is reached. This
15 percent of the population reduces the speed (net number of reproductions R in epidemiological models) of a further spread of
SARS-CoV-2 accordingly.
By adhering to stringent hygiene measures, it can be expected that the
Virus concentration during an infection event of a person can be reduced so far
may result in less severe illness with simultaneous training of immunity. These favorable conditions are with
an exceptional outbreak event (superspreading event, e.g. carnival session, apres ski bar Ischgl) is not possible. With hygiene measures are thereby
favorable effects with regard to all-cause mortality can also be expected.
We therefore strongly recommend the proposed four-phase strategy
To implement German Society for Hospital Hygiene (DGKH). This
provides the following model:
Phase 1: Social quarantine with the aim of containment
and slowing the pandemic and avoiding overloading the
critical supply structures, in particular the
Health care system
Phase 2: Beginning withdrawal of quarantine with simultaneous
Ensuring hygienic framework conditions and behavior.
Phase 3: Removal of the quarantine while maintaining the
hygienic framework
Phase 4: State of public life as before the COVID-19 pandemic
(Status quo ante).
(DGKH statement can be found here:
https://www.krankenhaushygiene.de/ccUpload/upload/files/2020_03_31_DGKH_Einl
adug_Lageeinschaendung.pdf)
Note: These results are preliminary.
Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck (Institute of Virology)
Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute for Clinical Chemistry and Clinical
Pharmacology, spokesman for the Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2
)
Prof. Dr. Martin Exner (Institute for Hygiene and Public Health)
Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute for Medical Biometry, Computer Science and
Epidemiology)
University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, April 9, 2020
Background:
The community of Gangelt is one of the strongest in Germany
COVID19 affected places in Germany. It is believed that
Infection events due to a carnival meeting on February 15, 2020
is because several people tested SARSCoV2 positive after this session
were. The carnival session and the outbreak of the session is currently underway
examined more closely. It became a representative sample from the community
Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) moved to the district of Heinsberg. The
World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol that varies depending on
expected prevalence randomly 100 to 300 households are examined.
This sample was coordinated with its representativeness with Prof. Manfred
G?llner (Forsa).
Goal:
The goal of the study is to keep the level of going through and still
SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected) taking place in the community
Gait to determine. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2
Immunity can be determined.
Method:
A form letter was sent to approximately 600 households. Overall took
approx. 1000 inhabitants from approx. 400 households took part in the study. There were questionnaires
collected, throat swabs taken and blood for the presence of antibodies (IgG,
IgA) tested. The intermediate results and go into this first evaluation
Inferences from approx. 500 people.
Preliminary result:
An existing immunity of approx. 14% (antiSARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method>, 99%) was determined. About 2% of the
Individuals had a current SARS-CoV-2 determined using the PCR method
Infection on. The infection rate (current infection or already gone through) was
a total of approx. 15%. The lethality (case fatality rate) based on the total number of
Infected in the community of Gangelt is based on the preliminary data from this
Study about 0.37%. Currently in Germany from Johns-Hopkins University
calculated lethality is 1.98% and is 5 times higher. The
Mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.06%.
Preliminary conclusion: the 5- calculated by Johns-Hopkins University
The mortality rate, which is several times higher than in this study in Gangelt, is explained by
different reference size of the infected. This study is getting going
all infected people in the sample, including those with asymptomatic and
mild gradients. Gangelt is the proportion of the population that is already
Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has developed approximately 15%. This means that yourself
15% of the population in Gangelt can no longer be infected with SARS-CoV-2, and
the process is already in place until herd immunity is reached. This
15 percent of the population reduces the speed (net number of reproductions R in epidemiological models) of a further spread of
SARS-CoV-2 accordingly.
By adhering to stringent hygiene measures, it can be expected that the
Virus concentration during an infection event of a person can be reduced so far
may result in less severe illness with simultaneous training of immunity. These favorable conditions are with
an exceptional outbreak event (superspreading event, e.g. carnival session, apres ski bar Ischgl) is not possible. With hygiene measures are thereby
favorable effects with regard to all-cause mortality can also be expected.
We therefore strongly recommend the proposed four-phase strategy
To implement German Society for Hospital Hygiene (DGKH). This
provides the following model:
Phase 1: Social quarantine with the aim of containment
and slowing the pandemic and avoiding overloading the
critical supply structures, in particular the
Health care system
Phase 2: Beginning withdrawal of quarantine with simultaneous
Ensuring hygienic framework conditions and behavior.
Phase 3: Removal of the quarantine while maintaining the
hygienic framework
Phase 4: State of public life as before the COVID-19 pandemic
(Status quo ante).
(DGKH statement can be found here:
https://www.krankenhaushygiene.de/ccUpload/upload/files/2020_03_31_DGKH_Einl
adug_Lageeinschaendung.pdf)
Note: These results are preliminary.