Sally Furniss
Well-known member
Predicted Impacts on Rural Livelihoods in SNNPR (Ethiopia)
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1 Background & Objectives of the Study ?????????????????. 6
1.2 The Poultry Sector in Ethiopia ??????????????????????.. 6
1.3 Methodology ? Measuring Livelihood Impacts ????????????.?. 8
2. Predicted Livelihood Impacts of Avian Flu in SNNPR
2.1 Types of predicted Impacts ? Three Scenarios ?????????????. 10
2.2 Two Views ?????????????????????????????????. 10
2.3 The Best Case Scenario ? Southern Special Woredas ??????.??... 11
2.4 Moderate Scenario a ? Wolayita Maize and Root Crop Zone ?..?..?.. 13
2.5 Moderate Scenario b ? Sidama Lowland Maize Belt ?????.??...? 16
2.6 Conclusions ????????????????????????.????..??? 19
3. Predicted Income Impacts of Avian Flu on Women
3.1 Poultry Income is Women?s Income ??????????????.????. 21
3.2 What Women Earn ?????????????.??????.????????. 21
3.3 What Women Buy ????????????????????.???????? 23
3.4 Options for making up poultry income losses ???.?????.????? 25
3.5 Conclusions ??????????????????????.???.?????? 27
4. Predicted Impacts of Avian Flu on Commercial Poultry Farms and
Poultry Traders
4.1 Commercial Poultry Farms ???????????????..??..?????.. 28
4.2 Poultry Traders ??????????????????.????????.???.. 30
5. Predicted Health Impacts of Poultry Losses
5.1 Poultry and egg consumption in rural SNNPR ?????????????.. 32
5.2 Predicted nutrition impacts of poultry losses ???????????.??? 33
6. Predicted Livelihood Impacts of a Human Avian Flu Pandemic
6.1 Prevailing disease prevalence in SNNPR ???????????????? 34
6.2 The health system and coverage in rural SNNPR ???????????. 35
6.3 Discussion of likely impacts of a AI human pandemic ? Worst Case Scenario
6.4 Conclusion ????????????????????????????????? 39
7. Conclusions and Recommendations
7.1 Conclusions ????????????????????????????????... 40
7.2 The Incentive Package ??????????????????????????? 41
7.3 Protecting Health Protects Livelihoods ?????????????????? 41
7.4 Recovery ? Is there a future for backyard poultry production? ????? 42
References ????????????????????????????????????. 43
Annexes
Annex 1 - Itinerary & People Consulted ????????????????????.. 45
Annex 2 - Village interviews ??????????????????????????? 46
Annex 3 - Sample pages from the SNNPR Livelihood Baseline ???????.. 50
Annex 4 - Terms of Reference ?????????????????????????.. 51
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1 Background & Objectives of the Study ?????????????????. 6
1.2 The Poultry Sector in Ethiopia ??????????????????????.. 6
1.3 Methodology ? Measuring Livelihood Impacts ????????????.?. 8
2. Predicted Livelihood Impacts of Avian Flu in SNNPR
2.1 Types of predicted Impacts ? Three Scenarios ?????????????. 10
2.2 Two Views ?????????????????????????????????. 10
2.3 The Best Case Scenario ? Southern Special Woredas ??????.??... 11
2.4 Moderate Scenario a ? Wolayita Maize and Root Crop Zone ?..?..?.. 13
2.5 Moderate Scenario b ? Sidama Lowland Maize Belt ?????.??...? 16
2.6 Conclusions ????????????????????????.????..??? 19
3. Predicted Income Impacts of Avian Flu on Women
3.1 Poultry Income is Women?s Income ??????????????.????. 21
3.2 What Women Earn ?????????????.??????.????????. 21
3.3 What Women Buy ????????????????????.???????? 23
3.4 Options for making up poultry income losses ???.?????.????? 25
3.5 Conclusions ??????????????????????.???.?????? 27
4. Predicted Impacts of Avian Flu on Commercial Poultry Farms and
Poultry Traders
4.1 Commercial Poultry Farms ???????????????..??..?????.. 28
4.2 Poultry Traders ??????????????????.????????.???.. 30
5. Predicted Health Impacts of Poultry Losses
5.1 Poultry and egg consumption in rural SNNPR ?????????????.. 32
5.2 Predicted nutrition impacts of poultry losses ???????????.??? 33
6. Predicted Livelihood Impacts of a Human Avian Flu Pandemic
6.1 Prevailing disease prevalence in SNNPR ???????????????? 34
6.2 The health system and coverage in rural SNNPR ???????????. 35
6.3 Discussion of likely impacts of a AI human pandemic ? Worst Case Scenario
6.4 Conclusion ????????????????????????????????? 39
7. Conclusions and Recommendations
7.1 Conclusions ????????????????????????????????... 40
7.2 The Incentive Package ??????????????????????????? 41
7.3 Protecting Health Protects Livelihoods ?????????????????? 41
7.4 Recovery ? Is there a future for backyard poultry production? ????? 42
References ????????????????????????????????????. 43
Annexes
Annex 1 - Itinerary & People Consulted ????????????????????.. 45
Annex 2 - Village interviews ??????????????????????????? 46
Annex 3 - Sample pages from the SNNPR Livelihood Baseline ???????.. 50
Annex 4 - Terms of Reference ?????????????????????????.. 51