Post-pandemic store of value and exchange medium

[GaudiaRay]

(moved from gold thread)

The stores of value and medium of exchange, post-pandemic.

I'm concerned. You should be too.

It's one thing for us, as humans living within our respective nation-state societies, to trust the fiat controlled by and manipulable by the current political regime. This is our individual responsibility to be aware of the store of value we acquire, as we so do, and that's not really a topic for this mono-interest board.

It's another thing to look at post-disaster outcomes with an eye towards creation of an well-tested arena and a concentrated warehouse thought on a particular topic which may serve those surviving.

If the pandemic is mild, the efforts here will have been for nought. However, if the pandemic's measure is an R0 that's meaningful and a CFR in the range of 1918 or, heaven forbid, large population pockets during 1918, like Philadelphia or the Kansas army compounds, the damage to the economic infrastructure would leave the populace dependent on the remnants of their local politico's, who, in slim probability, will have been prepared to address this outcome.

Now, it may be greedy to attempt to protect personal fisc, and it may be disturbing to posit major disruption caused by a mere possibility of a pandemic of this range of intensity, and it may also be pig-headed, and foolish to fail to wade where it is politically inexpedient at this time.

Whichever interpretation be the case, this thread will open the topic, candidly, unrestrictedly, responsibly, and with participation by those who believe they understand and can bring color to a currently obscure and unfocused area which at that time will be of high priority and relevance.

In advance, thank you to each who contribute your thoughts. I ask the mods here to pull and redirect any off-topic posts so this thread can be quickly located, the arguments perused, and the best then-relevant ideas be pulled and brought to the discussion table of those who will then be faced with options. (Yes, this is arrogant of me to believe that anonymous posters may have impact; however, the alternative will be more limited in initial understanding and no worse than what we portend to manifest.)

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[GaudiaRay]

Re: Post-pandemic store of value and exchange medium

This topic deserves an outline as it's broad.

Topic #1: What will post-pandemic society look like?

AlaskaDenise today posted a precis of a new book, Influenza 1918, by Esyllt Jones. It can be found here. The author thinks her book to be the first to discuss post pandemic societal impact. Rather than fidrie the fidrekopf (sp!), immediately below is AD's post, repeated:

http://www.therapeuticsdaily.com/new...e&channelID=31

A new book by Esyllt Jones, Influenza 1918, links the 1919 General Strike, the most significant event in Winnipeg's economic history, with the Spanish influenza epidemic, the worst pandemic of the 20th century. In this excerpt, she argues that a curb on public meetings, ostensibly to stop the spread of the flu bug, galvanized the Trades and Labour Council as workers saw the ban arbitrarily applied. Jones is an assistant professor in the Department of History at St. John's College, University of Manitoba.

By Esyllt Jones
IN the months and weeks leading up to the General Strike, flu intensified ... (remainder of article by subscription)
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From Amazon.com:

Book Description


The influenza pandemic of 1918?1919 killed as many as fifty million people worldwide and affected the vast majority of Canadians. Yet the pandemic, which came and left in one season, never to recur in any significant way, has remained difficult to interpret. What did it mean to live through and beyond this brief, terrible episode, and what were its long-term effects? Influenza 1918 uses Winnipeg as a case study to show how disease articulated and helped to re-define boundaries of social difference. Esyllt W. Jones examines the impact of the pandemic in this fragmented community, including its role in the eruption of the largest labour confrontation in Canadian history, the Winnipeg General Strike of 1919. Arguing that labour historians have largely ignored the impact of infectious disease upon the working class, Jones draws on a wide range of primary sources including mothers? allowance and orphanage case files in order to trace the pandemic?s affect on the family, the public health infrastructure, and other social institutions. This study brings into focus the interrelationships between epidemic disease and working class, gender, labour, and ethnic history in Canada. Influenza 1918 concludes that social conflict is not an inevitable outcome of epidemics, but rather of inequality and public failure to fully engage all members of the community in the fight against disease.


From the Back Cover

?Influenza 1918 argues that historians have ignored the long-term consequences of short-term but serious health crises such as the influenza epidemic of 1918. By focusing on Winnipeg, Esyllt W. Jones traces the familiar repercussions of losing a loved one and how it impinged on the social welfare responsibilities of the city for many years. This is a well written, engaging, and timely study that should appeal to anyone interested in the history of the working class, women, medicine, and family.?

-Wendy Mitchinson, Department of History, University of Waterloo and Canada Research Chair in Gender and Medical History

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Post-pandemic store of value and exchange medium

So, what we need before answering the question are assumption parameters, from the most horrific to the least impactful, and then to embellish those. The outcome may be less murky than one may think, or at least we can so hope.

My musings on the observations of the book, above:
Populist thinking apparently will prevail, as in mob-rule, as in boorish leadership, like the recent, repeated failures by the Bush Administration (not all failures, just the blatant obvious and comical buffoonery like at Katrina and aftermath).

It's important for us to recollect apriori that the mob will rule. Roman soldiers probably assaulted and killed many; the recent public housing hearing in New Orleans just a day or so ago is a red flag...is hundreds of red flags...waiving furiously that appear as echoes to 1919 General Strike in Canada.

I as an entrepreneur will wear my "profit from this" visor as I look at this; and as a citizen within a greater social fabric, will also ask what can be pre-thought and strategized to act responsibly [doubtful...as the hoarding of sequence information, and most recently, the hoarding of chain of infection / communicabity time-line in Oct-Dec '07 cluster in Pakistan) even as late as the post-event scenario with its attendant drama] when necessary.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Post-pandemic store of value and exchange medium

Can we assume:

1) Attack rate will be similar to other pandemics.

2) CFR will probably be > 1918, but (hopefully) < current rate of 60+%.
(5% to, say, 30%)

3) Exchange medium will change depending on demand/supply of basic goods & services.

4) Store-of-value may mirror 1918, when housing and land values plummeted. Some consider that pandemic to be "the great leveler" of wealth.

5) The developed countries population may not possess the skills/knowledge to survive, as well as underdeveloped coutries.

6) There will be widespread urban unrest.

7) Duration of pandemic environment is a major issue. If the virus mutates frequently, sufficient vaccines cannot be produced quickly, & economic activity has great difficulty in recovering; that would be one very difficult situation. Rememer, early estimates said it would take 3 years before the new strain would loose significant virulence. Duration difficulty could be anywhere from 1 year to ???5 years.

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[sharon sanders]

Re: Post-pandemic store of value and exchange medium

Can we assume:

1) Attack rate will be similar to other pandemics.

2) CFR will probably be > 1918, but (hopefully) < current rate of 60+%.
(5% to, say, 30%)

3) Exchange medium will change depending on demand/supply of basic goods & services.

4) Store-of-value may mirror 1918, when housing and land values plummeted. Some consider that pandemic to be "the great leveler" of wealth.

5) The developed countries population may not possess the skills/knowledge to survive, as well as underdeveloped coutries.

6) There will be widespread urban unrest.

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I think these are reasonable.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Post-pandemic store of value and exchange medium

AD,
The medium of exchange now is fiat (currency). It represents a store of value "held" by the nation as a whole, and symbolized by the ruling government. And therein lies the future outcome, measured in one word, "trust".

Even in barter environments, there must be trust. If not, self-help will be the rule of the day; and that is the least socially desired. (Think gangs both domestic and in ugly places making news now like Gaza, Nigeria, etc; and worse, think of the ramifications if ordinary citizens experience fear and seek the shelter of those who are armed. ) This is not good.

So, we can say that the, not just "a", major political goal is the maintenance of deference to the ruling governmental authorities.

Based on 1918's ministerial behavior, the public was deceived nearly continuously throughout the pandemic, and in the majority of geographic locations. In this upcoming pandemic, the internet, where functioning, will educate many more among the intelligencia than ever before. Hurray for the internet. There yet will be those who are fearful, the doubters, and those who will be indifferent; we know this to be human nature.

What is unclear is how the populous communicate their needs and hopes and fears and how the governments will be able to respond. Based on the events watched over the past 3 years, the length of my interest in this topic, I've seen repeated failures, most of the time, for the politico's to be prepared and capable to respond in a way that assures and assuages the residents. This is a topic separate from this thread, yet one of major import. (The current "problems" faced by the Pakistani government after the Bhutto assassination is an example of the difficulty to govern, maintain peace, when passions are inflamed.) The "advantage pandemia has is that associations of more than small numbers of people, once rampant, will be shunned by many, and be the death rattle of those who are then disenfranchised, as in hungry, and without store of value or the medium of exchange. Ouch, this is a thorny topic.

Much more on this, later.

Because AD's points I believe are consensus conclusions of this forum, I repeat them.

1) Attack rate will be similar to other pandemics.

2) CFR will probably be > 1918, but (hopefully) < current rate of 60+%.
(5% to, say, 30%)

3) Exchange medium will change depending on demand/supply of basic goods & services.

4) Store-of-value may mirror 1918, when housing and land values plummeted. Some consider that pandemic to be "the great leveler" of wealth.

5) The developed countries population may not possess the skills/knowledge to survive, as well as underdeveloped coutries.

6) There will be widespread urban unrest.

7) Duration of pandemic environment is a major issue.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Post-pandemic store of value and exchange medium

We may need to establish other assumptions, beyond the nature of the pandemic:

1) What is an acceptable level of store-of-value, i.e., are we interested in preserving individual accumulated wealth or maintaining the ability of industry to perform it's minimal functions? I would hope we'd be speaking to maintaining a stable store-of-value, so that industry can produce basic necessities at a price that will allow enough customers for the industry to stay in business. That could be very difficult in an unstable post-pandemic economy.

2) What is an acceptable exchange medium? It must be flexible and be such that people will be able to acquire their basic needs.

3) What is an acceptable minimal level of economic recovery? We may have to accept that it may not be business as usual for some time. For instance, are people meeting their minimum needs, is there reasonable security, is medical treatment available to minimize the CFR of a waning pandemic? If we have sufficient store-of-value and exchange medium to accomplish these things, that is a realistic goal.

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