Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

[Sharky]

A radio show host in Atlanta claims he was contacted by someone from the CDC about the Dallas Ebola patient, before the big press conference and so on. One of the things the caller said was the route the patient supposedly took from Liberia to Dallas:

Monrovia to
Brussels to
Dulles, VA to
Dallas, TX

He also claims the patient was in Liberia to attend a funeral.

http://www.redstate.com/2014/09/30/the-ebola-patient-and-a-call-to-my-show/

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

I think the article says the patient attended a funeral, not that he was in Liberia specifically for the funeral.

Also, everyone, please post unverifiable information, i.e. unnamed CDC sources, in this forum.

Thanks!

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

Brussels airline has 2 flights a week Monrovia-Brussels, on Monday and Friday.

MONROVIA schedule(15SEP-25OCT14 - all times UTC):

SN1247 MONROVIA 20:40 BRUSSELS 5:15(+1) 1...5..

http://www.brusselsairlines.com/en-be/misc/AlertMessageDetail.aspx

 

[alert]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

Crof seems to agree:

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/...t-flight-did-the-case-take-from-monrovia.html

September 30, 2014



Ebola in US: What flight did the case take from Monrovia?



Via The New York Times: Ebola Is Diagnosed in Texas, First Case Found in the U.S. Excerpt:

Dr. Frieden declined to disclose flight information or to say whether the patient is an American citizen. He said the man was not a health worker, and officials had no idea how he had become infected.

The man left Monrovia's Roberts International Airport on September 19, a Friday, and arrived in Dallas on Saturday. On the assumption that it was a regularly scheduled flight, then the departures schedule for Friday, October 3, should indicate the most likely flight: One codeshared as United Airlines 9974, Air Canada 6374, and Lufthansa 5549. The flight would have left at 8:40 p.m. for Brussels, where the case would have arrived about 5:15 a.m. local time. He would then have transferred to at least one other flight to Dallas.

I may be wildly wrong, but any competent travel agent could figure out the man's complete itinerary in a few minutes. So it seems pointless for Dr. Frieden to "decline to disclose" that information. The CDC certainly has it, whether or not it thinks tracing the passengers is worthwhile, and the Belgian health authorities presumably have it as well.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

I also agree. It is ridiculous not to disclose the itinerary. In fact, people have the human right to know.

It can not be guaranteed that this ebola patient was totally symptom free at the time of his/her travel from Liberia to the US. He/she may not have realized they were sick. The first signs of ebola are like the flu.

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

CDC says there?s ?zero risk? on commercial airline flight of Dallas Ebola patient

By Sheryl Jean
6:12 pm on September 30, 2014 |

...
The name of the commercial airline has not been disclosed.

?American Airlines does not fly to Africa and we have been told the passenger was not on a connecting flight involving our aircraft,? said spokeswoman Andrea Huguely, a spokeswoman for the Fort Worth-based carrier.

A spokesman for Dallas-based Southwest Airlines, which does not fly internationally, said the CDC has not contacted it and has ?no information about Southwest being involved in any way.?

?The CDC has not shared specific patient information that would allow us to confirm whether the traveler?s itinerary involved United,? United Airlines spokeswoman Christen David said.
...
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/...-airline-flight-of-dallas-ebola-patient.html/

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

No one can say zero risk for sure. It is not known. This kind of messaging erodes any trust.

What should be said in this case is:

1) Here are the flights this person took on his/her way to the US...

2) If you were on any of these flights or airports on this date..., and are experiencing any unwell symptoms, please contact your health care professional. The initial symptoms of ebola resemble the flu. More info about the symptoms of ebola are here...

3) Probably the risk is low, but just-in-case, this itinerary is provided.


How hard is that? Just say it.

 

[MHSC]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

No one can say zero risk for sure. It is not known. This kind of messaging erodes any trust.

What should be said in this case is:

1) Here are the flights this person took on his/her way to the US...

2) If you were on any of these flights or airports on this date..., and are experiencing any unwell symptoms, please contact your health care professional. The initial symptoms of ebola resemble the flu. More info about the symptoms of ebola are here...

3) Probably the risk is low, but just-in-case, this itinerary is provided.


How hard is that? Just say it.

Agreed, that would be the responsible thing to do.

 

[Sharky]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

News report confirming the route:

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2014/10/01/how-ebola-infected-man-got-to-dfw/

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

News Releases

<!-- .news --><!-- BEGIN CONTENT-WRAPPER --><!-- BEGIN CONTENT --><!-- AddThis Button BEGIN --><!-- AddThis Button END -->​

<!-- .add-this --><!-- deprecated class; please do not use -->United Statement on U.S. Ebola Patient

October 01, 2014
<STYLE type=text/css> div.news_body img { margin: 0 0 20px 20px; float:right; max-width: 250px; max-height: 250px; width: auto !important; height: auto !important; } </STYLE>
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has informed us that the patient said he flew part of his trip on United.
However, without consent, we cannot divulge a traveler?s identity. The director of the CDC has stated there is ?zero risk of transmission? on any flight on which the patient flew because he was not symptomatic until several days after his trip and could not have been contagious on the dates he traveled. While the CDC states it is unnecessary for it or the airline to contact others who were on the patient?s flights, United is providing information about the flights United believes the patient took, based on information provided by the CDC. We are ensuring our employees have this information and suggest that any customers who have concerns contact the experts at the CDC for further information.



Information on the Sept. 20 flights United believes the patient took is as follows:

• Brussels to Washington Dulles, Flight 951 and Washington Dulles to Dallas-Fort Worth, Flight 822.

http://newsroom.unitedcontinentalholdings.com/index.php?s=20295&item=124483

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

United planes that Ebola patient took have been in Houston since Sept. 20th

By Chuck Goudie
Wednesday, October 01, 2014
...
When Thomas Eric Duncan left Liberia, he made his way to Brussels and boarded a United Airlines plane for the US.

Here is what we know about the planes he took and the routing:

On Sept. 20, Duncan took a United Boeing 777 from Brussels to Washington Dulles and arrived at 2:36 p.m.

According to flight records, Duncan had three hours on the ground at Dulles, clearing customs and then boarding his connecting flight, a United Airbus 320 from Washington to Dallas that departed 5:29 p.m.

Since then, based on their tail numbers, those exact two aircraft have carried passengers to 27 different cities. According to flight records, the planes were in Houston on September 23 and 24.

Authorities continue to maintain there is no risk to passengers who were on the planes with the Ebola patient or to anyone in the planes since then....

More including full list:
http://abc13.com/news/united-planes-that-ebola-patient-took-were-in-houston/333124/

 

[MHSC]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

Since then, based on their tail numbers, those exact two aircraft have carried passengers to 27 different cities. According to flight records, the planes were in Houston on September 23 and 24.

Authorities continue to maintain there is no risk to passengers who were on the planes with the Ebola patient or to anyone in the planes since then....

More including full list:
http://abc13.com/news/united-planes-that-ebola-patient-took-were-in-houston/333124/

I really hope Duncan is telling the truth about the date of symptoms onset

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

...
By Catherine E. Shoichet, Ashley Fantz and Holly Yan, CNN
updated 10:09 PM EDT, Wed October 1, 2014
...
Air travel testing

The Ebola patient told authorities he flew part of his trip on United Airlines, a spokesperson for the airline said, citing information from the CDC. The airline believes the patient flew from Brussels to Washington Dulles and then from Dulles to Dallas-Fort Worth on September 20, the spokesperson said.

"The director of the CDC has stated there is 'zero risk of transmission' on any flight on which the patient flew because he was not symptomatic until several days after his trip and could not have been contagious on the dates he traveled," the spokesperson said.

Every person who travels by air is screened before departure and at arrival in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, but because the man says he began feeling ill days after landing in the United States, a screening test in West Africa would likely have not turned up that he had Ebola.

However, it's unclear what kind of screening someone flying from West Africa might receive when they land in the United States, Cohen said. The CNN correspondent and her crew recently reported in and flew from West Africa, where she said they were screened numerous times for Ebola by having their temperatures taken at the airport.

But when they arrived back in the United States, and asked travel officials about whether their temperatures would be taken or whether they'd be screened for Ebola, they were given unclear explanations about how the process worked and ultimately were not tested.

Regardless, the CDC maintains that passengers on planes with the Texas patient were likely not at risk because the man was not displaying active symptoms.
...
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/01/health/ebola-us/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

Springfield doctor protests how Ebola threat is handled

Sarah Okeson, News-Leader 11:53 a.m. CDT October 2, 2014
</SECTION><SECTION id=module-position-NjL0Gp3z1C4 class="storytopbar-bucket priority-asset-module"></SECTION><SECTION id=module-position-NjL0Gp2VSck class="storytopbar-bucket story-byline-module">
Springfield doctor Gil Mobley donned a protective suit at the Atlanta airport today to protest how federal health authorities are handling the threat of Ebola.

Mobley said today that his suit and gear were taken away in Atlanta after he boarded the Delta flight. He said he had taken off the protective gear ? space suit coveralls, hood mask, goggles, gloves and boots with "CDC is Lying" written on the back of the overalls ? once he reached the gate.
...
...Mobley said the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is sugarcoating the threat of Ebola in the United States.

"With 10,000 people flying out of west Africa daily its only a matter of time until all corners of the world are exposed," Mobley said. "Once it devours third world countries, the US will be importing these cases daily.

Eventually the clusters will overwhelm even the most advanced countries' ability to isolate and quarantine all those exposed. The CDC needs to be honest with us."
...
http://www.news-leader.com/story/ne...octor-protests-ebola-threat-handled/16579721/

 

[FrenchieGirl]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

I really hope Duncan is telling the truth about the date of symptoms onset

So do I (crossing fingers till white)

What about the stop-overs in Brussels and Boston terminals, the corridors, the waiting rooms, the toilets, the bars and restaurants, escalators, ramps, lifts, electricity plugs for computers or razors, possibly other security X-ray machines, ancillary, security and airline staff?

Thousands of flights in and out of these airports during the times he was transiting there...

 

[jeffrey]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

So do I (crossing fingers till white)

What about the stop-overs in Brussels and Boston terminals, the corridors, the waiting rooms, the toilets, the bars and restaurants, escalators, ramps, lifts, electricity plugs for computers or razors, possibly other security X-ray machines, ancillary, security and airline staff?

Thousands of flights in and out of these airports during the times he was transiting there...

According to a presser just now from CDC, Duncans temp in Monrovia was 36.3 which is 97.3. So we will see soon. Hopefully that is accurate!

 

[Nika]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

But we can't actually know for certain, at all. As a thought experiment... There may have been OTHER passengers who were fleeing (are still fleeing, will be fleeing) who actually became symptomatic en route (seemingly unlike Duncan as per current reports) and traveled those hallways and facilities and who we know nothing about.

How would you control for this confounding phenomenon?

You simply can't.

This illustrates why it's not the best use of one's time and energy trying to brute-force guesstimate what "actually" happened.

If you are about to embark on travels perhaps you can address your concerns for your personal safety by 1) postponing the trip 2) use your own PPL en route - mask, gloves, distancing, meticulous hygiene.

 

[Dani]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

According to a presser just now from CDC, Duncans temp in Monrovia was 36.3 which is 97.3. So we will see soon. Hopefully that is accurate!

Honestly, it doesn't matter if it is accurate. Most people who have a virus take Tylenol, aspirin or a motrin-related medication in an effort to feel better. All of which will bring down a temperature to normal in early stages of viral illnesses.
Thus, people in the very earliest stages of Ebola may not even be trying to fool the health authorities and will be able to board the plane.

Then there are over-reactions like this one: http://www.travelpulse.com/news/airlines/as-cdc-chases-down-ebola-victims-planes-continue-flying.html

This kind of reporting is why I think that airlines will ultimately stop serving West Africa, no matter what WHO, the CDC and the White House has to say about it. People will start refusing to travel anywhere. (But not me, I'm going to Denmark in one month come hell or high water!).

 

[MHSC]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

Springfield doctor protests how Ebola threat is handled

Mobley said today that his suit and gear were taken away in Atlanta after he boarded the Delta flight. He said he had taken off the protective gear ? space suit coveralls, hood mask, goggles, gloves and boots with "CDC is Lying" written on the back of the overalls ? once he reached the gate.

"With 10,000 people flying out of west Africa daily...

I guess he feels pretty strongly about it.

Are there really that many people flying out of Africa daily?

 

[Dani]

Re: Possible flight route of Dallas Ebola patient

In the article Gemineye posted in the thread Air Industry Battles Ebola, there was this very interesting quote:

Royal Air Maroc said flights to Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia had become unprofitable because they were usually empty on the way out and full only on the way back.​

I think only Royal Air Maroc and Brussels Airlines have flights from the affected countries to destinations out of the continent. But apparently lots of people are interested in leaving West Africa.