tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One
. 2024 Oct 22;19(10):e0309922.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309922. eCollection 2024. The 123 COVID SCORE: A simple and reliable diagnostic tool to predict in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients on hospital admission
Małgorzata Ostrowska[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Michał Kasprzak[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tomasz Fabiszak[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jacek Gajda[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Natalia Jaje-Rykowska[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Piotr Michalski[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Beata Moczulska[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Paulina Nowek[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Maciej Piasecki[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Marta Pilaczyńska-Cemel[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Przemysław Podhajski[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Paulina Prudzic[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Dominika Stępniak[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Damian Świątkowski[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Maciej Żechowicz[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Robert Gajda[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Leszek Gromadziński[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jacek Kryś[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Aldona Kubica[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Grzegorz Przybylski[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Paweł Szymański[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Jacek Kubica[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Background: Patients hospitalized due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are still burdened with high risk of death. The aim of this study was to create a risk score predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients on hospital admission.
Methods: Independent mortality predictors identified in multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to build the 123 COVID SCORE. Diagnostic performance of the score was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC).
Results: Data from 673 COVID-19 patients with median age of 70 years were used to build the score. In-hospital death occurred in 124 study participants (18.4%). The final score is composed of 3 variables that were found predictive of mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis: (1) age, (2) oxygen saturation on hospital admission without oxygen supplementation and (3) percentage of lung involvement in chest computed tomography (CT). Four point ranges have been identified: 0-5, 6-8, 9-11 and 12-17, respectively corresponding to low (1.5%), moderate (13.4%), high (28.4%) and very high (57.3%) risk of in-hospital death. The 123 COVID SCORE accuracy measured with the AUROC was 0.797 (95% CI 0.757-0.838; p<0.0001) in the study population and 0.774 (95% CI 0.728-0.821; p<0.0001) in an external validation cohort consisting of 558 COVID-19 patients.
Conclusions: The 123 COVID SCORE containing merely 3 variables: age, oxygen saturation, and percentage of lung involvement assessed with chest CT is a simple and reliable tool to predict in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients upon hospital admission.
. 2024 Oct 22;19(10):e0309922.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309922. eCollection 2024. The 123 COVID SCORE: A simple and reliable diagnostic tool to predict in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients on hospital admission
Małgorzata Ostrowska[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Michał Kasprzak[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tomasz Fabiszak[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jacek Gajda[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Natalia Jaje-Rykowska[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Piotr Michalski[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Beata Moczulska[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Paulina Nowek[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Maciej Piasecki[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Marta Pilaczyńska-Cemel[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Przemysław Podhajski[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Paulina Prudzic[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Dominika Stępniak[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Damian Świątkowski[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Maciej Żechowicz[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Robert Gajda[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Leszek Gromadziński[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jacek Kryś[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Aldona Kubica[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Grzegorz Przybylski[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Paweł Szymański[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Jacek Kubica[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 39436870
- PMCID: PMC11495612
- DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309922
Background: Patients hospitalized due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are still burdened with high risk of death. The aim of this study was to create a risk score predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients on hospital admission.
Methods: Independent mortality predictors identified in multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to build the 123 COVID SCORE. Diagnostic performance of the score was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC).
Results: Data from 673 COVID-19 patients with median age of 70 years were used to build the score. In-hospital death occurred in 124 study participants (18.4%). The final score is composed of 3 variables that were found predictive of mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis: (1) age, (2) oxygen saturation on hospital admission without oxygen supplementation and (3) percentage of lung involvement in chest computed tomography (CT). Four point ranges have been identified: 0-5, 6-8, 9-11 and 12-17, respectively corresponding to low (1.5%), moderate (13.4%), high (28.4%) and very high (57.3%) risk of in-hospital death. The 123 COVID SCORE accuracy measured with the AUROC was 0.797 (95% CI 0.757-0.838; p<0.0001) in the study population and 0.774 (95% CI 0.728-0.821; p<0.0001) in an external validation cohort consisting of 558 COVID-19 patients.
Conclusions: The 123 COVID SCORE containing merely 3 variables: age, oxygen saturation, and percentage of lung involvement assessed with chest CT is a simple and reliable tool to predict in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients upon hospital admission.