tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One
. 2022 Sep 29;17(9):e0275216.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275216. eCollection 2022.
Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico
Pablo Carlos López Vázquez[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Gilberto Sánchez González[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jorge Martínez Ortega[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Renato Salomón Arroyo Duarte[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.
. 2022 Sep 29;17(9):e0275216.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275216. eCollection 2022.
Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico
Pablo Carlos López Vázquez[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Gilberto Sánchez González[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jorge Martínez Ortega[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Renato Salomón Arroyo Duarte[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36173956
- PMCID: PMC9521938
- DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275216
Abstract
In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.