tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One
. 2021 Jan 8;16(1):e0245101.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245101. eCollection 2021.
Prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic trends based on SEIR and AI models
Shuo Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zebang Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chen Ling[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Chen Chang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Zhongke Feng[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
In December 2019, the outbreak of a new coronavirus-caused pneumonia (COVID-19) in Wuhan attracted close attention in China and the world. The Chinese government took strong national intervention measures on January 23 to control the spread of the epidemic. We are trying to show the impact of these controls on the spread of the epidemic. We proposed an SEIR(Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) model to analyze the epidemic trend in Wuhan and use the AI model to analyze the epidemic trend in non-Wuhan areas. We found that if the closure was lifted, the outbreak in non-Wuhan areas of mainland China would double in size. Our SEIR and AI model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The epidemic control measures taken by the Chinese government, especially the city closure measures, reduced the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Conflict of interest statement
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
. 2021 Jan 8;16(1):e0245101.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245101. eCollection 2021.
Prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic trends based on SEIR and AI models
Shuo Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zebang Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chen Ling[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Chen Chang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Zhongke Feng[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33417605
- DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245101
Abstract
In December 2019, the outbreak of a new coronavirus-caused pneumonia (COVID-19) in Wuhan attracted close attention in China and the world. The Chinese government took strong national intervention measures on January 23 to control the spread of the epidemic. We are trying to show the impact of these controls on the spread of the epidemic. We proposed an SEIR(Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) model to analyze the epidemic trend in Wuhan and use the AI model to analyze the epidemic trend in non-Wuhan areas. We found that if the closure was lifted, the outbreak in non-Wuhan areas of mainland China would double in size. Our SEIR and AI model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The epidemic control measures taken by the Chinese government, especially the city closure measures, reduced the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Conflict of interest statement
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.