tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
PLoS One
. 2020 Dec 3;15(12):e0242956.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242956. eCollection 2020.
Estimating the real burden of disease under a pandemic situation: The SARS-CoV2 case
Amanda Fern?ndez-Fontelo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David Mori?a[SUP] 2 3 4 [/SUP], Alejandra Caba?a[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Argimiro Arratia[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Pere Puig[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process with Poisson immigration, Po-INAR(1), together with a mechanism that allows the estimation of the under-reporting in non-stationary count time series. A novelty of the model is that the expectation of the unobserved process's innovations is a time-dependent function defined in such a way that information about the spread of an epidemic, as modelled through a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed dynamical system, is incorporated into the model. In addition, the parameter controlling the intensity of the under-reporting is also made to vary with time to adjust to possible seasonality or trend in the data. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the model.
. 2020 Dec 3;15(12):e0242956.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242956. eCollection 2020.
Estimating the real burden of disease under a pandemic situation: The SARS-CoV2 case
Amanda Fern?ndez-Fontelo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David Mori?a[SUP] 2 3 4 [/SUP], Alejandra Caba?a[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Argimiro Arratia[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Pere Puig[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33270713
- DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242956
Abstract
The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process with Poisson immigration, Po-INAR(1), together with a mechanism that allows the estimation of the under-reporting in non-stationary count time series. A novelty of the model is that the expectation of the unobserved process's innovations is a time-dependent function defined in such a way that information about the spread of an epidemic, as modelled through a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed dynamical system, is incorporated into the model. In addition, the parameter controlling the intensity of the under-reporting is also made to vary with time to adjust to possible seasonality or trend in the data. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the model.