TheFluMaster
Resident
Pinal County: Pandemic is possible and probable
The flu isn't often thought of as a mass killer these days, but Pinal County health officials are saying, prepare for it.
In a worst-case scenario, as many as 40 percent of Americans could contract the disease, and 20 percent of those men, women and children would die. That's 24 million people across the nation, and an estimated 1,700 people dead in Pinal County within a 12 to 18-month time span.
This year isn't thought to be "the year" for the pandemic.
Over a few sneezes and coughs at a chamber lunch Oct. 5 at Toltec Tavern, Pinal County Health director Thomas Schryer painted an alarming picture. He said it was not a matter of "if" but "when."
"We've heard a lot in the media over the last year or so about bird flu and the fear of bird flu," Schryer said, "and there's a lot of confusion about that, whether it's a really serious public health threat or not.
"But it's clear that we do know we have a global threat of pandemic influenza and that it is a substantial health concern. ... From a public health perspective, it's a top priority."
It seems partisan groups and government officials are always saying, "prepare for the worst, and hope for the best" even if they don't always themselves. If you cry "wolf" too many times, people start to ignore warnings because nothing happens. The cry of "deadly flu" is not common, however.
Pinal County has gone so far as to print an 18-page booklet about the threat, what to do about it, and how to lessen each individual's risk. The United States Department of Health & Human Services, has a Web site in English and Spanish (www.pandemicflu.gov) devoted to preparing for a pandemic.
MedicineNet.com defines influenza as "caused by viruses that infect the respiratory tract." A "pandemic" is considered something that happens to a great number of people over a large geographic area. An "epidemic" is considered more localized.
Schryer said without a plan for coping, mass deaths across the country could cause near chaos. He said thinking ahead starts locally, and at home.
"It's very important to note that Homeland Security Secretary Chertoff and Health and Human Services Secretary (Michael Leavitt), have both talked about what the realistic expectations are in the event of a pandemic influenza. Really, the local communities are where the preparedness has to take place.
"The federal and state governments cannot come rolling in because they're also going to be experiencing the exact same effects."
Government and businesses alike, no matter how critical, will suffer similar levels of loss through sickness and death, Schryer said. There would not be enough vaccine for everyone who wanted it, in the event of an influenza pandemic, he said later. School policy and structure would also have to adapt quickly. National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would also decrease by about 2 percent a recent ASU study indicated.
"We look at it as house to house, each family has to be prepared because we're not going to be able to look after everybody.
Basic health points will be re-enforced, and Schryer said the education about how to reduce the spread of flu can never start too early.
The county Health Department will continue to emphasize the need for a person to stay home if they're sick, and for employers to let them. "You don't want to interact with people," Schryer said. "It's one of the first and easiest things you can do."
"Pinal county's goals are to limit death and illness and preserve the continuity of essential business and government functions," he said. "(Also) minimize social destruction and minimize economic loss.
"We're going to do that by working with all of our government and business partners to try to have them as prepared as possible. That way when there is a tremendous shortage of necessities you'll at least have some sort of a stockpile to take care of people."
The world has been hit by flu pandemics before. The largest in recent memory was in 1918, when the Spanish Flu killed millions worldwide and around 675,000 Americans, out of a then-population of 103 million, or 0.65 percent.
Today, Schryer said enough flu vaccine could not be manufactured to successfully combat a pandemic. A Health and Human Services Department statement released Monday said the World Health Organization, part of the United Nations, had stepped up its organization efforts to manufacture a greater quantity of vaccine if needed.
"... [T]he global influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity of 350 million doses of vaccine per year is far short of the manufacturing capacity needed to protect the world's six billion people," the statement read in part. "The WHO action plan provides direction for increasing capacity for production of human influenza pandemic vaccines to reduce the anticipated gap between the potential vaccine demand and supply during an influenza pandemic."
If the flue becomes a killer, Schryer said his department will have done what it needs to do to prepare citizens. "Pinal County is very committed to having a very frank and open and honest discussion about what's going on and what the risks are," he said. "... Citizens can anticipate whatever you hear from us is pretty much the straight-up truth."
? To offer your thoughts on this article contact Temple A. Stark at 466-7333 or by e-mail, eloyeditor@gmail.xom
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17381085&BRD=1817&PAG=461&dept_id=222077&rfi=6
The flu isn't often thought of as a mass killer these days, but Pinal County health officials are saying, prepare for it.
In a worst-case scenario, as many as 40 percent of Americans could contract the disease, and 20 percent of those men, women and children would die. That's 24 million people across the nation, and an estimated 1,700 people dead in Pinal County within a 12 to 18-month time span.
This year isn't thought to be "the year" for the pandemic.
Over a few sneezes and coughs at a chamber lunch Oct. 5 at Toltec Tavern, Pinal County Health director Thomas Schryer painted an alarming picture. He said it was not a matter of "if" but "when."
"We've heard a lot in the media over the last year or so about bird flu and the fear of bird flu," Schryer said, "and there's a lot of confusion about that, whether it's a really serious public health threat or not.
"But it's clear that we do know we have a global threat of pandemic influenza and that it is a substantial health concern. ... From a public health perspective, it's a top priority."
It seems partisan groups and government officials are always saying, "prepare for the worst, and hope for the best" even if they don't always themselves. If you cry "wolf" too many times, people start to ignore warnings because nothing happens. The cry of "deadly flu" is not common, however.
Pinal County has gone so far as to print an 18-page booklet about the threat, what to do about it, and how to lessen each individual's risk. The United States Department of Health & Human Services, has a Web site in English and Spanish (www.pandemicflu.gov) devoted to preparing for a pandemic.
MedicineNet.com defines influenza as "caused by viruses that infect the respiratory tract." A "pandemic" is considered something that happens to a great number of people over a large geographic area. An "epidemic" is considered more localized.
Schryer said without a plan for coping, mass deaths across the country could cause near chaos. He said thinking ahead starts locally, and at home.
"It's very important to note that Homeland Security Secretary Chertoff and Health and Human Services Secretary (Michael Leavitt), have both talked about what the realistic expectations are in the event of a pandemic influenza. Really, the local communities are where the preparedness has to take place.
"The federal and state governments cannot come rolling in because they're also going to be experiencing the exact same effects."
Government and businesses alike, no matter how critical, will suffer similar levels of loss through sickness and death, Schryer said. There would not be enough vaccine for everyone who wanted it, in the event of an influenza pandemic, he said later. School policy and structure would also have to adapt quickly. National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would also decrease by about 2 percent a recent ASU study indicated.
"We look at it as house to house, each family has to be prepared because we're not going to be able to look after everybody.
Basic health points will be re-enforced, and Schryer said the education about how to reduce the spread of flu can never start too early.
The county Health Department will continue to emphasize the need for a person to stay home if they're sick, and for employers to let them. "You don't want to interact with people," Schryer said. "It's one of the first and easiest things you can do."
"Pinal county's goals are to limit death and illness and preserve the continuity of essential business and government functions," he said. "(Also) minimize social destruction and minimize economic loss.
"We're going to do that by working with all of our government and business partners to try to have them as prepared as possible. That way when there is a tremendous shortage of necessities you'll at least have some sort of a stockpile to take care of people."
The world has been hit by flu pandemics before. The largest in recent memory was in 1918, when the Spanish Flu killed millions worldwide and around 675,000 Americans, out of a then-population of 103 million, or 0.65 percent.
Today, Schryer said enough flu vaccine could not be manufactured to successfully combat a pandemic. A Health and Human Services Department statement released Monday said the World Health Organization, part of the United Nations, had stepped up its organization efforts to manufacture a greater quantity of vaccine if needed.
"... [T]he global influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity of 350 million doses of vaccine per year is far short of the manufacturing capacity needed to protect the world's six billion people," the statement read in part. "The WHO action plan provides direction for increasing capacity for production of human influenza pandemic vaccines to reduce the anticipated gap between the potential vaccine demand and supply during an influenza pandemic."
If the flue becomes a killer, Schryer said his department will have done what it needs to do to prepare citizens. "Pinal County is very committed to having a very frank and open and honest discussion about what's going on and what the risks are," he said. "... Citizens can anticipate whatever you hear from us is pretty much the straight-up truth."
? To offer your thoughts on this article contact Temple A. Stark at 466-7333 or by e-mail, eloyeditor@gmail.xom
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17381085&BRD=1817&PAG=461&dept_id=222077&rfi=6