tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Physica A
. 2021 Dec 24;126774.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126774. Online ahead of print.
Epidemiological modeling for COVID-19 spread in India with the effect of testing
Anurag Singh[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Md Arquam[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
A novel coronavirus has resulted in an outbreak of viral pneumonia in China. Person-to-person transmission has been demonstrated, but, to our knowledge, the spreading of novel coronavirus takes place due to an asymptomatic carrier. Most models are not considering testing and underlying network topology that shows the spreading pattern. By failing to integrate testing into the epidemiological model, models missed a vital opportunity to better understand the role of asymptomatic infection in transmission. In this work, we propose a model considering testing as well as asymptomatic infection considering underlying network topology. We extract the transmission parameters from the data set of COVID-19 of India and apply those parameters in our proposed model. The simulation results support our theoretical derivations, which show the impact of testing and asymptomatic carrier in infection spreading.
Keywords: Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Complex network; Critical threshold; Epidemic modeling.
. 2021 Dec 24;126774.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126774. Online ahead of print.
Epidemiological modeling for COVID-19 spread in India with the effect of testing
Anurag Singh[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Md Arquam[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34975210
- PMCID: PMC8702612
- DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126774
Abstract
A novel coronavirus has resulted in an outbreak of viral pneumonia in China. Person-to-person transmission has been demonstrated, but, to our knowledge, the spreading of novel coronavirus takes place due to an asymptomatic carrier. Most models are not considering testing and underlying network topology that shows the spreading pattern. By failing to integrate testing into the epidemiological model, models missed a vital opportunity to better understand the role of asymptomatic infection in transmission. In this work, we propose a model considering testing as well as asymptomatic infection considering underlying network topology. We extract the transmission parameters from the data set of COVID-19 of India and apply those parameters in our proposed model. The simulation results support our theoretical derivations, which show the impact of testing and asymptomatic carrier in infection spreading.
Keywords: Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Complex network; Critical threshold; Epidemic modeling.