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Summary of Assessment of Public Health Risk to Canada Associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV)
21 Jul 2013
The risk assessment is reviewed on a regular basis and updated as required.
Risk Assessment
The public health risk posed by MERS-CoV to Canada is considered low based on available information at this time. Further investigation of basic epidemiological indicators is required to guide effective control measures, and the risk may change as new information arises.
Some of the infections have occurred in clusters of close contacts or in health care settings. This provides good evidence of human-to-human transmission possibly involving different modes of transmission. To date, no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed.
There is no indication that international spread has occurred, although when infected people from affected areas travel, their infection may be detected in another country.
Event Summary
Cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) have been reported in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, France, Tunisia, and Italy since April 2012. There have been no cases identified in Canada.
As of 8 July 2013, 80 laboratory-confirmed cases and one probable case of human infection with MERS-CoV have been reported to the World Health Organization (WHO): 2 from Jordan, 2 from Qatar, 65 from Saudi Arabia, 3 from the United Kingdom (UK), 1 from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), 2 from France, 2 confirmed and 1 probable from Tunisia, and 3 from Italy. Most patients are male (64%; 49 of 76 cases with sex reported) and range in age from 2 to 94 years (median 54 years). Seven paediatric cases have been reported, with one paediatric death in a 2 year old with underlying lung disease. Most patients presented with severe acute respiratory disease requiring hospitalization and eventual mechanical ventilation or other advanced respiratory support, however, asymptomatic illness has been reported in four children and four health care workers. Forty four confirmed cases have died (case fatality rate 55%). Animal exposures were suspected in early cases, but the majority of cases do not have this history. For the latest updates on the total number of cases and deaths please visit the Global Alert and Response websiteExternal Link.
Three major epidemiological patterns were identified in the Joint Kingdom of Saudi Arabia/WHO Mission: sporadic cases occur in communities; clusters of infections occur in families; and clusters of infections occur in health care facilities. There has been no evidence of widespread human-to-human transmission, and there have been fewer infections reported in healthcare workers than expected based on the experience with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)Footnote 1. Recently however, as part of outbreak investigation and contact tracing, four asymptomatic healthcare workers have tested positive for MERS-CoV (reported 21 and 26 June 2013 by WHO).
All clusters reported to date have occurred among close contacts (e.g. family, work) or in health care settings. While human-to-human transmission has occurred in at least some of these clusters, the source of the infection in the community is unknown. The large number of cases with reported co-morbidities suggests that increased susceptibility from underlying medical conditions may play a role in transmission.
A few of the clusters of MERS CoV are described in more detail below:
On 1 June 2013, WHO reported the first confirmed case of MERS-CoV in Italy in a resident who had recently returned from a trip to Jordan on 25 May 2013. The case was reported to have had contact with a family member with an unspecified illness while in Jordan. Two additional lab confirmed-cases of MERS-CoV were found in close contacts of the index case, a female co-worker and a niece. The niece is 2 years of age and the first reported paediatric case of MERS-CoV.
Between 1 April 2013 and 23 May 2013, 23 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV, were identified in Saudi Arabia in the region of Al-Ahsa located in the Eastern Province (17 males and 6 females, median age 56 years); fifteen have died. All confirmed cases, and 11 probable cases were part of a single outbreak involving four health care facilities. Seventeen of the cases were associated with a medical ward, hemodialysis unit or ICU in one hospital. Among 217 household contacts and more than 200 health care worker contacts identified, MERS-CoV infection developed in five family members (three laboratory confirmed) and two health care workers (both laboratory confirmed). An outbreak investigation has identified that one patient transmitted infection to seven persons, another patient transmitted to three persons, and four patients transmitted to two persons each. The incubation period of confirmed cases was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval 1.9-14.7 days).Footnote 2
In France, two cases have been reported. The first case, became ill after a 9-day vacation to Dubai, UAE, and subsequently died on 28 May 2013 due to refractory multiple organ failure. The second case, reported on 12 May, is a patient who shared a room at a health care facility with the first case for three days. The incubation period was estimated to be 9-12 days for the second caseFootnote 3. Among 120 persons identified as contacts of the first laboratory-confirmed case in France, laboratory tests were conducted on five suspected cases, of which four tested negative and one (mentioned above) tested positive. No infected healthcare workers have been identified.
Tunisia reported two laboratory-confirmed cases and one probable case on May 21, 2013. These are the first cases of infection with MERS-CoV in Tunisia. The two laboratory-confirmed cases are a 34 year old man and a 35 year old woman who are siblings; both had mild respiratory illness and did not require hospitalization. Their father became ill after returning from Qatar and Saudi Arabia on 3 May 2013, and developed acute respiratory disease and died on 10 May 2013 following ICU admission. He had an underlying medical condition, and initial laboratory tests were negative for MERS-CoV. He is currently considered a probable case as his laboratory test in Tunisia was interpreted as negative. Details of exposure history for the confirmed cases are not yet available, but both are currently in good health. Investigations are on-going.
Preliminary results of the serological study on the Jordanian cluster in April 2012 have identified eight positive cases out of 124 individual specimens thus far. Six were previously identified as probable cases in the outbreak investigation. The seventh is an additional healthcare worker, and the eighth a household member of a probable case not identified earlier. Laboratory results for all specimens are still pending.
No vaccine or effective antiviral treatment is currently available for MERS-CoV.
See further information:
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/eri-ire/coronavirus/risk_assessment-evaluation_risque-eng.php
21 Jul 2013
The risk assessment is reviewed on a regular basis and updated as required.
Risk Assessment
The public health risk posed by MERS-CoV to Canada is considered low based on available information at this time. Further investigation of basic epidemiological indicators is required to guide effective control measures, and the risk may change as new information arises.Some of the infections have occurred in clusters of close contacts or in health care settings. This provides good evidence of human-to-human transmission possibly involving different modes of transmission. To date, no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed.There is no indication that international spread has occurred, although when infected people from affected areas travel, their infection may be detected in another country. Event Summary
Cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) have been reported in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, France, Tunisia, and Italy since April 2012. There have been no cases identified in Canada.
As of 8 July 2013, 80 laboratory-confirmed cases and one probable case of human infection with MERS-CoV have been reported to the World Health Organization (WHO): 2 from Jordan, 2 from Qatar, 65 from Saudi Arabia, 3 from the United Kingdom (UK), 1 from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), 2 from France, 2 confirmed and 1 probable from Tunisia, and 3 from Italy. Most patients are male (64%; 49 of 76 cases with sex reported) and range in age from 2 to 94 years (median 54 years). Seven paediatric cases have been reported, with one paediatric death in a 2 year old with underlying lung disease. Most patients presented with severe acute respiratory disease requiring hospitalization and eventual mechanical ventilation or other advanced respiratory support, however, asymptomatic illness has been reported in four children and four health care workers. Forty four confirmed cases have died (case fatality rate 55%). Animal exposures were suspected in early cases, but the majority of cases do not have this history. For the latest updates on the total number of cases and deaths please visit the Global Alert and Response websiteExternal Link.
Three major epidemiological patterns were identified in the Joint Kingdom of Saudi Arabia/WHO Mission: sporadic cases occur in communities; clusters of infections occur in families; and clusters of infections occur in health care facilities. There has been no evidence of widespread human-to-human transmission, and there have been fewer infections reported in healthcare workers than expected based on the experience with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)Footnote 1. Recently however, as part of outbreak investigation and contact tracing, four asymptomatic healthcare workers have tested positive for MERS-CoV (reported 21 and 26 June 2013 by WHO).
All clusters reported to date have occurred among close contacts (e.g. family, work) or in health care settings. While human-to-human transmission has occurred in at least some of these clusters, the source of the infection in the community is unknown. The large number of cases with reported co-morbidities suggests that increased susceptibility from underlying medical conditions may play a role in transmission.
A few of the clusters of MERS CoV are described in more detail below:
On 1 June 2013, WHO reported the first confirmed case of MERS-CoV in Italy in a resident who had recently returned from a trip to Jordan on 25 May 2013. The case was reported to have had contact with a family member with an unspecified illness while in Jordan. Two additional lab confirmed-cases of MERS-CoV were found in close contacts of the index case, a female co-worker and a niece. The niece is 2 years of age and the first reported paediatric case of MERS-CoV.
Between 1 April 2013 and 23 May 2013, 23 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV, were identified in Saudi Arabia in the region of Al-Ahsa located in the Eastern Province (17 males and 6 females, median age 56 years); fifteen have died. All confirmed cases, and 11 probable cases were part of a single outbreak involving four health care facilities. Seventeen of the cases were associated with a medical ward, hemodialysis unit or ICU in one hospital. Among 217 household contacts and more than 200 health care worker contacts identified, MERS-CoV infection developed in five family members (three laboratory confirmed) and two health care workers (both laboratory confirmed). An outbreak investigation has identified that one patient transmitted infection to seven persons, another patient transmitted to three persons, and four patients transmitted to two persons each. The incubation period of confirmed cases was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval 1.9-14.7 days).Footnote 2
In France, two cases have been reported. The first case, became ill after a 9-day vacation to Dubai, UAE, and subsequently died on 28 May 2013 due to refractory multiple organ failure. The second case, reported on 12 May, is a patient who shared a room at a health care facility with the first case for three days. The incubation period was estimated to be 9-12 days for the second caseFootnote 3. Among 120 persons identified as contacts of the first laboratory-confirmed case in France, laboratory tests were conducted on five suspected cases, of which four tested negative and one (mentioned above) tested positive. No infected healthcare workers have been identified.
Tunisia reported two laboratory-confirmed cases and one probable case on May 21, 2013. These are the first cases of infection with MERS-CoV in Tunisia. The two laboratory-confirmed cases are a 34 year old man and a 35 year old woman who are siblings; both had mild respiratory illness and did not require hospitalization. Their father became ill after returning from Qatar and Saudi Arabia on 3 May 2013, and developed acute respiratory disease and died on 10 May 2013 following ICU admission. He had an underlying medical condition, and initial laboratory tests were negative for MERS-CoV. He is currently considered a probable case as his laboratory test in Tunisia was interpreted as negative. Details of exposure history for the confirmed cases are not yet available, but both are currently in good health. Investigations are on-going.
Preliminary results of the serological study on the Jordanian cluster in April 2012 have identified eight positive cases out of 124 individual specimens thus far. Six were previously identified as probable cases in the outbreak investigation. The seventh is an additional healthcare worker, and the eighth a household member of a probable case not identified earlier. Laboratory results for all specimens are still pending.
No vaccine or effective antiviral treatment is currently available for MERS-CoV.
See further information:
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/eri-ire/coronavirus/risk_assessment-evaluation_risque-eng.php