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Peter Sandman/Jody Lanard Columns

Superb Flu Pandemic Risk Communication: A Role Model from Australia

Superb Flu Pandemic Risk Communication: A Role Model from Australia

Superb Flu Pandemic Risk Communication:
A Role Model from Australia
by Jody Lanard and Peter M. Sandman

http://www.psandman.com/col/abbott.htm
 
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Re: Peter Sandman/Jody Lanard Columns

De-lurking here to post this: (I became a fan of Sandman's upon reading this)-held in sept 05 NYC.
http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/pages/events/birds/index.html

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Peter Sandman
Risk Communication Specialist

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Re: Peter Sandman/Jody Lanard Columns

this is all awfully lengthy.
I assume that the average people here don't want to read that all.
Is there some summary,abstract,conclusion ?

The main problem with Peter Sandman IMO is, that he (like many others)
refuses to give probability estimates and expectation values.
And he even seems to accept that other experts evade this
request - although most what he writes is just about making
and communicating these estimates.

So, for me risk communication is the art to formulate nice words
which lets the questioner accept why the question wasn't answered.
 
Re: Peter Sandman/Jody Lanard Columns

Thanks for the contributions, guys. I adjusted the length of the articles. It was pointed out to me that the formatting, which is important to understanding the articles, doesnt translate when the articles are cut/pasted. So I snipped the first few paragraphs and left a link for the rest.

gs, the problem you describe you have with Dr. Sandman- I just dont get it! I understand that this is an important qestion to you (and all of us for that matter!) but expecting a risk communicator to make those predictions is kinda like being upset at the pastor for not washing your car while you go to church service! In other words, its not his job or field of expertise-just like the pastor has another job to do... IMHO its not reasonable to expect that from him.

Risk communication is the infant science of doing just what it says- effectively talking to people about risk. AFAIK it doesnt generally include quantifying the risk, there are experts in their own specific fields that do that. I guess we need to learn who the experts are that do it for pandemics.

Problem is. I dont think there are any yet! Its a new phenomenon, to be able to follow an avian epidemic. We dont know the rules, the probabilities, or the potentials. We can only observe this as it unfolds, and hope to extrapolate correctly.

I guess what we learn here in the next few years is creating a new body of knowledge, that in the future may be used to help quantify risk should this situation occur again.

We're breaking new ground, and everyone is sorta feeling their way carefully; uncertain if what we are seeing is unique or a normal progression with an inevitable ending.

Without knowing that, how can we quantify risk with any authority?
 
Re: Peter Sandman/Jody Lanard Columns

Sandman's point, which I adopted and use to the lay public is, "high consequence, low probability". That's what this virus is at any point in time until it's happening, imo.

The low probability is a definitional point. In the past 3 months since he said this, nothing has happened. So, low probability.

It's how to get people to expend money and time in the face of this fact...low probability.
 
Re: Peter Sandman/Jody Lanard Columns

Bird Flu, Pandemic Flu, and Poultry Markets:
Playing Ostrich or Talking Turkey?

<center>Column Index

</center> Disentangling Avian Influenza from Pandemic Influenza
1. Two Bird Flus
2. Clarifying the Vocabulary (and Taking the Blame)
3. Typical Language Confusions
4. Muddling the Logic
5. Bird Flu Communication Lessons
Being Candid and Empathic about the Human Risk of Avian Influenza
6. Over-Reassurance about Poultry Safety
7. Ignoring Mistrust — and the Case for Mistrust
8. Contempt for the Public — Sure, That’ll Help a Lot
9. The Bird Flu Adjustment Reaction
10. The Uganda Letter
It’s the Risk Communication, Stupid (Whoops!)


Posted: May 29, 2006 We get emails almost every week from officials asking: “Is it possible to prevent the drop in poultry consumption in countries when H5N1 avian influenza arrives?” Our answer: No. Absolutely impossible. It’s as simple as that. No charge.

But hardly anyone asks: “Is it possible to mitigate the drop in poultry consumption? Is it possible to speed up the recovery, to reduce the dip?” Those questions have much more hopeful answers than the first question. The hopeful answers are informed by well-known risk communication principles that have been ignored, so far, in every country that has discovered an H5N1-positive bird.
We hope this column will help address the “chicken communication” issue — as distinct from the pandemic communication issue — and the important relationship between the two. The Western Hemisphere still has time to do it right. And even in Europe, Africa, and Asia, it’s not too late to improve.
We have four reasons for devoting a column to this topic, arguably of interest mainly to poultry producers.



...more at
http://psandman.com/col/poultry.htm
 
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