tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Perm J
. 2021 May;25.
doi: 10.7812/TPP/20.232.
Time-varying Reproduction Numbers of COVID-19 in Georgia, USA, March 2, 2020 to November 20, 2020
Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Gerardo Chowell[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jessica S Schwind[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Randall Ford[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sylvia K Ofori[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chigozie A Ogwara[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Margaret R Davies[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Terrence Jacobs[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chi-Hin Cheung[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Logan T Cowan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Andrew R Hansen[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Isaac Chun-Hai Fung[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: In 2020, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 impacted Georgia, USA. Georgia announced a state-wide shelter-in-place on April 2 and partially lifted restrictions on April 27. We estimated the time-varying reproduction numbers (R[SUB]t[/SUB]) of COVID-19 in Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County and environs from March 2, 2020, to November 20, 2020.
Methods: We analyzed the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County and its surrounding counties, and estimated R[SUB]t[/SUB] using the R package EpiEstim. We used a 9-day correction for the date of report to analyze the data by assumed date of infection.
Results: The median R[SUB]t[/SUB] estimate in Georgia dropped from between 2 and 4 in mid-March to < 2 in late March to around 1 from mid-April to November. Regarding Metro Atlanta, Rt fluctuated above 1.5 in March and around 1 since April. In Dougherty County, the median R[SUB]t[/SUB] declined from around 2 in late March to 0.32 on April 26. Then, R[SUB]t[/SUB] fluctuated around 1 in May through November. Counties surrounding Dougherty County registered an increase in R[SUB]t[/SUB] estimates days after a superspreading event occurred in the area.
Conclusions: In Spring 2020, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 transmission in Georgia declined likely because of social distancing measures. However, because restrictions were relaxed in late April and elections were conducted in November, community transmission continued, with R[SUB]t[/SUB] fluctuating around 1 across Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County as of November 2020. The superspreading event in Dougherty County affected surrounding areas, indicating the possibility of local transmission in neighboring counties.
. 2021 May;25.
doi: 10.7812/TPP/20.232.
Time-varying Reproduction Numbers of COVID-19 in Georgia, USA, March 2, 2020 to November 20, 2020
Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Gerardo Chowell[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jessica S Schwind[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Randall Ford[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sylvia K Ofori[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chigozie A Ogwara[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Margaret R Davies[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Terrence Jacobs[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chi-Hin Cheung[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Logan T Cowan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Andrew R Hansen[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Isaac Chun-Hai Fung[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33970085
- DOI: 10.7812/TPP/20.232
Abstract
Background: In 2020, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 impacted Georgia, USA. Georgia announced a state-wide shelter-in-place on April 2 and partially lifted restrictions on April 27. We estimated the time-varying reproduction numbers (R[SUB]t[/SUB]) of COVID-19 in Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County and environs from March 2, 2020, to November 20, 2020.
Methods: We analyzed the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County and its surrounding counties, and estimated R[SUB]t[/SUB] using the R package EpiEstim. We used a 9-day correction for the date of report to analyze the data by assumed date of infection.
Results: The median R[SUB]t[/SUB] estimate in Georgia dropped from between 2 and 4 in mid-March to < 2 in late March to around 1 from mid-April to November. Regarding Metro Atlanta, Rt fluctuated above 1.5 in March and around 1 since April. In Dougherty County, the median R[SUB]t[/SUB] declined from around 2 in late March to 0.32 on April 26. Then, R[SUB]t[/SUB] fluctuated around 1 in May through November. Counties surrounding Dougherty County registered an increase in R[SUB]t[/SUB] estimates days after a superspreading event occurred in the area.
Conclusions: In Spring 2020, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 transmission in Georgia declined likely because of social distancing measures. However, because restrictions were relaxed in late April and elections were conducted in November, community transmission continued, with R[SUB]t[/SUB] fluctuating around 1 across Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County as of November 2020. The superspreading event in Dougherty County affected surrounding areas, indicating the possibility of local transmission in neighboring counties.