Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-35 (Summary)

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-3 (One New Death; Total 21)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-3 (One New Death; Total 21)

Also of note, "During week 4, only 12% of subtyped flu isolates were influenza A/H3N2, down from 60-80% in December."

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-3 (One New Death; Total 21)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-3 (One New Death; Total 21)

Right and that was something you noticed earlier in Jersey too. I graphed the data in the Jersey thread. http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=153811

The Pennsylvania numbers are just too small to do the same - 16 samples of which only 7 were completely subtyped.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Week 5: Widespread
1 new death; total 25
ILI: 4%

Emergency Department (ED) were elevated throughout the state.

5 Influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) were reported during week 5, down from 17 outbreaks reported the previous week. Fifty nine outbreaks have been reported since the begining of October 2010.

1 655 flu cases were reported, a 38% increase from 1197 cases reported the previous week. While all regions of the state reported increased flu activity, significant increases were reported in the southeast, southcentral and northcentral regions.

Nearly 80% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This high positivity suggests that most people presenting with ILI at this time have the flu.

Influenza type A continues to account for a majority (90%) of flu cases reported with flu type B causing the other 10%.

Of the 121 influenza specimens sutyped at the state lab, 26 (21%) were the 2009 A/H1N1, 24 (28%) A/H3, 34 (28%) were untyped influenza type A and 8 (7%) influenza type B.

There was a 40% increase in influenza A/H3N2 cases reported in Pennsylvania between week 4 and 5 (395 to 555) while the number of 2009 A/H1N1 flu cases nearly doubled (84 to 161) during the same period.

One flu death was reported during week 5, altogether 25 flu deaths have been reported since October of 2010. Less than 20 flu deaths are reported by January during most flu seasons (except last year when the pandemic A/H1N1 circulated). These deaths may be an underestimate of all flu-related deaths because not all deaths are reported to the state and there may be a delay in reporting some deaths.

Even though the elderly (people over 65 years) account for only 14% of all flu cases reported so far, they account for more than half of all hospitalizations and deaths.

Influenza activity among health adults aged 25 to 49 years is on the increase, this is now the most affected age group followed by the elderly.

Influenza activity is likely to continue increasing over the next few weeks.

Most of the recent influenza hospitalizations and deaths were in people who had no recent history of influenza vaccination.
http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

 

[JimO]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

It's curious that they haven't released numbers for hospitalizations Since January 8th.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

I do enjoy watching the language change -

Last week's report;
"Less than 15 flu deaths are reported by January during most flu seasons"

This week's report;
"Less than 20 flu deaths are reported by January during most flu seasons"

 

[JimO]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

I know it's no laughing matter, but...

Don't forget the classic from 2009 "more than 36,000 people die of influenza in the U.S. every year."

I do enjoy watching the language change -

Last week's report;
"Less than 15 flu deaths are reported by January during most flu seasons"

This week's report;
"Less than 20 flu deaths are reported by January during most flu seasons"

 

[JimO]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

I went to Pennsylvania Public Health Depts. Web site. There site is not very good and they seem to be not very accurate. So I do not think it is a matter of hiding something. I think that the person or persons controlling the site are just not that accurate at what they do. Also, some flu years are worse than others, too. Extremely severe weather in Pennsylvania, too and seems to be in areas, where maybe people do not have insurance either.

I agree in that I don't think anyone is hiding anything. If they are having a bad time of it with the flu and the weather, the people responsible for keeping the website data current are probably busy with bigger problems.

Actually, PA is at least reporting adult fatalities. Most states are only reporting pediatric deaths, as required by the CDC.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Here's one from week 3;

"Less than 10 flu deaths are reported by January during most flu seasons"

 

[jeff]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

I work in a hospital and the majority of our patients are the elderly. This is California, but alot of children are now getting sick all at once. The next month will be interesting. I do think there is a reporting problem with Penn.

 

[JimO]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5 (One New Death; Total 25)

I work in a hospital and the majority of our patients are the elderly. This is California, but alot of children are now getting sick all at once. The next month will be interesting. I do think there is a reporting problem with Penn.

There is a disturbing jump in child ER visits or hospitalizations with ILI. I posted the chart from Nebraska and the 0-2 and 2-5 age group numbers have really shot up. PA has only reported 1 pediatric death and I wish they would update their hospitalization data by age group. I'm a bit concerned because of the Novel triple assortment (tr) H3N2 that was reported in two samples collected in the fall. PA is also reporting an unusually high number of unsubtypeable flu A specimens. If there is a trH3N2 co-circulating with seasonal H3N2 and a mutated pH1N1, we could be in trouble.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-5

Perhaps the change in numbers from week 3 "...less than 10 flu deaths are reported by January..." to week 5 "...less than 20 flu deaths are reported by January..." is due to wording and they are meaning that "less than 10 flu deaths in January by week 2" and "less than 20 flu deaths in January by week 4". That would reconcile the discrepancy.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-6 (Five New Deaths, Including One Pediatric; Total 32)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-6 (Five New Deaths, Including One Pediatric; Total 32)

Week 6: Widespread
5 new deaths, including 1 pediatric; total 32
A/2009 H1N1 now predominant
Healthy adults aged 25 to 49 years are now the most affected age group by the flu followed by the elderly.
ILI: 4%

15 Influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) were reported during week 6, up from 4 outbreaks reported the previous week. Seventy four (74) outbreaks have been reported since the beginning of October 2010.

1,898 flu cases were reported, up from 1,632 cases reported the previous week. While all regions of the state reported increased flu activity, significant increases were reported in the south western regions.

Nearly 80% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This high positivity suggests that most people presenting with ILI at this time have the flu.

Influenza type A continues to account for a majority (80%) of flu cases reported with flu type B causing the other 20%.

Of the 45 influenza specimens sutyped at the state lab during week 6, a majority, (27/60%) were the 2009 A/H1N1, 13(29%) were the seasonal A/H3N2, 2 (4%) were untyped influenza type A and 3 (7%) were influenza type B. There has been an increase in 2009 A/H1N1 flu cases during the last two weeks.

In addition to seasonal viruses, two unrelated infections with a swine origin influenza A/H3N2 virus have been identified in Pennsylvania with onset dates in September 2010 and October 2010. In recent years this virus has also produced human illness elsewhere in the country, generally in association with direct contact with ill pigs. It has not been associated with person-to-person transmission. Clinicians should remain alert to the possibility of infection with this virus in persons with influenza-like illness who have a history of recent exposure to swine populations, and collect appropriate diagnostic specimens.

Five flu deaths were reported during week 6, including one deaths in a child. Altogether 32 flu deaths have been reported since October of 2010. Less than 20 flu deaths are reported by January during most flu seasons (except last year when the pandemic A/H1N1 circulated). These deaths may be an underestimate of all flu-related deaths because not all deaths are reported to the state and there may be a delay in reporting some deaths.

Even though the elderly (people over 65 years) account for only 14% of all flu cases reported so far, they account for more than half of all hospitalizations and deaths.

Influenza activity among health adults aged 25 to 49 years is on the increase, this is now the most affected age group followed by the elderly.

Influenza activity is likely to continue increasing over the next few weeks.

Most of the recent influenza hospitalizations and deaths were in people who had no recent history of influenza vaccination.
http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-7 (Five New Deaths, Including Two Pediatric; Total 39)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-7 (Five New Deaths, Including Two Pediatric; Total 39)

Week 7: Widespread
5 new deaths, including 2 unvaccinated pediatric; total 39

1, 898 flu cases were reported, up from 1, 632 cases reported the previous week. While all regions of the state reported increased flu activity, significant increases were reported in the southwestern regions.

19 Influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) were reported during week 7, up from 17 outbreaks reported the previous week. Ninety five (95) outbreaks have been reported since the begining of October 2010.

Emergency Department (ED) were elevated throughout the state during week 7.

4.5% of all outpatient Visits to doctors reported by sentinel physicians were for flu-like illnesses (IILI), which is nearly double the state baseline (2.4%).

Nearly 70% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This high positivity suggests that most people presenting with ILI at this time have the flu.

Influenza type A continues to account for a majority (90%) of flu cases reported with flu type B causing the other 10%.

Of the 45 influenza specimens sutyped at the state lab during week 7, a majority, (27/60%) were the 2009 A/H1N1, 13(29%) were the seasonal A/H3N2, 2 (4%) were untyped influenza type A and 3 (7%) were influenza type B. There has been an increase in 2009 A/H1N1 flu cases during the last three weeks, and it appears to be mostly affecting people under 30 years of age.

189 influenza hospitalizations were reported, most of them involving the elderly (>65 years) and young adults (25-49 years of age).

Five flu deaths were reported during week 7, including two deaths in healthy unvaccinated children. Altogether 39 flu deaths have been reported since October of 2010 including 4 deaths in children (<18years) and nearly half among the elderly (>65 years of age). Less than 30 flu deaths have are reported by February during most flu seasons (except last year when the pandemic A/H1N1 circulated). These deaths may be an underestimate of all flu-related deaths because not all deaths are reported to the state and there may be delays in reporting some deaths.

Influenza activity is likely to continue increasing over the next few weeks, and the recent deaths show us that severe and fatal illness can occur in health people through the season.

Most of the recent influenza hospitalizatons and deaths are in people who have no recent history of influenza vaccination.
http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

 

[JimO]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-7 (Five New Deaths, Including Two Pediatric; Total 39)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-7 (Five New Deaths, Including Two Pediatric; Total 39)

Here is the hospitalization chart from the above report:

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-8 (Eight New Deaths; Total 47)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-8 (Eight New Deaths; Total 47)

Week 8: Widespread
8 new deaths; total 47

2, 460 flu cases were reported during week 8, up from 1, 898 cases reported the previous week. Most of the recent flu cases were reported in the western region of the state.

28 Influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) were reported during week 8, up from 19 outbreaks reported the previous week. One hundred twenty three (123) outbreaks have been reported since the begining of October 2010.

Emergency Department (ED) were elevated throughout the state during week 8.

4.5% of all outpatient Visits to doctors reported by sentinel physicians were for flu-like illnesses (IILI), which is nearly double the state baseline (2.4%).

Nearly 70% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This high positivity suggests that most people presenting with ILI at this time have the flu.

Influenza type A continues to account for a majority (90%) of flu cases reported with flu type B causing the other 10%.

Of the 43 influenza specimens sutyped at the state lab during week 8, a majority, (23/53%) were the 2009 A/H1N1, 16(37%) were the seasonal A/H3N2, 4 (9%) were influenza type B. There has been an increase in 2009 A/H1N1 flu cases during the last four weeks, and it appears to be mostly affecting people under 30 years of age.

210 influenza hospitalizations were reported, up from 189 hospitalizations reported during week 7. Week 8 flu hospitalizations included one health care worker, 4 pregnant women, and 9 people with severe illness admitted to the Intersive Care Unit.

47 flu deaths, including 4 deaths in children <18 years, have been reported in Pennsylvania since October 2010. Nearly half among the elderly (>65 years of age). Less than 30 flu deaths are reported by February during most flu seasons (except last year when the pandemic A/H1N1 circulated). These deaths may be an underestimate of all flu-related deaths because not all deaths are reported to the state and there may be delays in reporting some deaths.
http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

 

[JimO]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-8 (Eight New Deaths; Total 47)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-8 (Eight New Deaths; Total 47)

Here are the %ILI and hospitalization charts from the Week 8 report.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-9 (Two New Deaths; Total 53)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-9 (Two New Deaths; Total 53)

Week 9: Widespread
2 new deaths; total 53

Influenza (flu) activity continued to be categorized as WIDESPREAD during week 09. Activity peaked during week 8 but a lot of flu continues to be reported in all counties.

Flu-related Emergence Department (ED) visits remained elevated throughout the state.

2.7% of all outpatient Visits to doctors reported by sentinel physicians were for flu-like illnesses (IILI), down from 4.5% during week 8 but still above the state baseline (2.4%).

60% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This moderately high positivity suggests that most people presenting with ILI at this time have the flu.

Influenza type A continues to account for a majority (90%) of flu cases reported with flu type B causing the other 10%.

2, 229 flu cases were reported during week 9, down from 2, 460 cases reported the previous week.

170 influenza hospitalizations including 12 ICU admissions were reported, down from 118 the previous week.

15 Influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) were reported during week 9, down from 28 outbreaks reported the previous week. One hundred thirty eight (138) outbreaks have been reported since the begining of October 2010.

Most of the recent influenza hospitalizations and deaths are in people who have no recent history of influenza vaccination.

Recent flu deaths in healthy unvaccinated individuals show that severe and fatal illness can still occur late in the flu season. It is not too late to get or give the flu vaccine.

Healthy adults aged 25 to 49 years are now the most affected age group by the flu followed by children under 18 years of age. The elderly (people > 65 years) account for 13% of all flu cases reported to date but account for over half of all reported flu hospitalizations and deaths.
http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

 

[JimO]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-10 (Five New Deaths; Total 65)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-10 (Five New Deaths; Total 65)

PA reported five deaths in Week 10; however, they also reported seven deaths from prior weeks for a total of 12 additional deaths, including one pediatric death (total 6).

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

• 3.5% of all outpatient Visits to doctors reported by sentinel physicians were for flu-like illnesses (IILI), up from 2.7% during week 9 and above the state baseline (2.4%).
• 60% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This moderately high positivity suggests that most people presenting with ILI at this time have the flu.
• 1,569 flu cases were reported during week 10, down from 2,154 cases reported the previous week.
• 146 influenza hospitalizations including 9 pregnant women, 12 children and 2 health care workers were reported, down from 184 hospitalizations reported the previous week.
• 18 individuals with influenza were admitted to Intensive Care Units in Pennsylvania during week 10, up from 14 the previous week.
• A majority of recent influenza hospitalizations and ICU admissions have been in unvaccinated people.
• Five (5) influenza deaths were reported during week 10, up from 2 the previous week. 65 flu deaths have been reported season-to-date, including 33/54% among the elderly, 6/9% in children under 18 years, 3/5% in the 19 to 24 year age group, 11/17% in the 25 to 49 year age group and 10/15% in people aged 50-64 years old.
• A majority (50%) of flu viruses isolated at the state lab during week 10 were the seasonal A/H3N2 influenza, followed by 2009/H1N1 (30%) and influenza type B (20%).

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-11 (Five New Deaths; Total 74)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-11 (Five New Deaths; Total 74)

Week 11: Widespread
5 new deaths; total 74 NOTE: PN added an additional 4 deaths to previous weeks, giving the new total
Flu-related Emergence Department (ED) visits were moderately-high throughout the state.
2.2% of all outpatient Visits to doctors reported by sentinel physicians were for flu-like illnesses (IILI), which is just below the state baseline (2.4%).

53% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This level of positivity suggests that other respiratory infections are causing as much ILI as flu viruses.
1, 018 flu cases were reported during week 11, down from 1, 570 cases reported the previous week.
88 influenza hospitalizations including were reported, down from 150 the previous week.

5 individuals with influenza were admitted to Intensive Care Units in Pennsylvania during week 11, down from 18 the previous week.
A majority of recent influenza hospitalizations and ICU admissions have been in unvaccinated people.

Five (5) influenza deaths were reported during week 11, same number as the previous week. 74 flu deaths have been reported season-to-date, including 42/56% among the elderly, 6/9% in children under 18 years, 3/5% in the 19 to 24 year age group, 11/15% in the 25 to 49 year age group and 12/15% in people aged 50-64 years old.

A majority (58/53%) of 109 flu viruses isolated at the state lab during week 11 were the seasonal A/H3N2 influenza, followed by 2009/H1N1 (37/34%) and influenza type B (14/13%).
http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-13 (Nine New Deaths; Total 83)

Re: Pennsylvania 2010-2011 Season: Weeks 42-13 (Nine New Deaths; Total 83)

Week 13: Local activity
9 new deaths; total 83 (No influenza death was reported during week 13, four deaths were reported during week 12. Altogether, 83 flu deaths have been reported season-to-date, 77 deaths were reported by this time during the 2009 pandemic. More than half of the flu deaths were among the elderly >65 years.)

Small amounts of flu continue to be reported in all counties, especially the western regions.

Flu-related Emergence Department (ED) visits are nearly down to baseline throughout the state.

1.9% of all outpatient Visits to doctors reported by sentinel physicians were for flu-like illnesses (IILI), which is just below the state baseline (2.4%).

477 flu cases were reported during week 13, down from 744 cases reported the previous week. Most of the recent flu cases occured in the western region of the state. Altogether, 18,636 flu cases have been reported this season, 33, 815 cases were reported during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic.

37 influenza hospitalizations were reported during week 13, down from 65 the previous week. Altogether 1461 flu hospitalizations have been reported this season, slightly more than (1390) the number reported during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic.

3 individuals with influenza were admitted to Intensive Care Units in Pennsylvania during week 12, down from 7 the previous week. Altogether, 149 ICU admissions have been reported this season. A majority (70%) of severy ill inidividuals were not vaccinated.

30% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This low positivity suggests that most respiratory infections at this time may not be flu-related. There are other respiratory viruses currently co-circulating with influenza including; RSV, Rhinovirus and Parainfluenza.

A majority (50%) of flu viruses isolated at the state lab during week 13 were the seasonal A/H3N2 influenza, followed by 2009/H1N1 (35) and influenza type B (15%).

Sixty (60) cases of influenza among health care workers have been reported in Pennsylvania this season. A majority (70%) of ill HCWs were not vaccinated.
http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2