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Paula hugging the north coast of western Cuba

Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
1. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCERESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORMMAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIESWILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WATCHES AND/ORWARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ATAROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OFNICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMANISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


</PRE>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents


</PRE>
 
Tropical storm Paula forms near the coast of Honduras - Hurricane warning issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula

Tropical storm Paula forms near the coast of Honduras - Hurricane warning issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula

Tropical Storm PAULA Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 112031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PAULA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS
...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/112031.shtml
 
Re: Tropical storm Paula forms near the coast of Honduras - Hurricane warning issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula

Re: Tropical storm Paula forms near the coast of Honduras - Hurricane warning issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours
Select a Future Forecast Time Below:
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 hours Loop


Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data: 0.1 degree .shp 0.5 degree .shp


Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203114.shtml?tswind120#contents

Surface Wind Field

Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data


Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203114.shtml?radii#contents
 
Re: Tropical storm Paula forms near the coast of Honduras - Hurricane warning issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula

Re: Tropical storm Paula forms near the coast of Honduras - Hurricane warning issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula

<TABLE id=mapTable class=sm cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Image Updated: 10:38 PM GMT on October 11, 2010</TD><SCRIPT language=javascript> var prefix="at201018_sat"; var zoom=3; var suffix = ".jpg"; var zoomtext; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; function zoom_sat(dir) { if (dir=="in") zoom--; else zoom++; if (zoom < 0) zoom = 3; if (zoom > 3) zoom = 0; if (zoom != 3) zoomtext= "_"+ zoom; else zoomtext=""; document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } function anim_sat() { if (suffix==".jpg") { suffix="_anim.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/pause_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Stop"; } else { suffix=".jpg"; document.getElementById("anim_button").src = "http://icons-ecast.wxug.com/graphics/play_12x12.gif"; document.getElementById("anim_text").innerHTML = "Animate"; } document.getElementById('tropicalmap').src="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/"+prefix+zoomtext+suffix; return; } </SCRIPT><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Animate</TD><TD></TD><TD style="WIDTH: 75px" class=nobr>Zoom Out</TD><TD></TD><TD class=nobr>Zoom In</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
at201018_sat.jpg

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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201018_sat.html

Click the map below to change the zoom level.
<TABLE id=mapTable class=sm cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Hurricane Paula now Cat 2 heading toward the Yucatan channel and extreme western Cuba

Hurricane Paula now Cat 2 heading toward the Yucatan channel and extreme western Cuba

Hurricane PAULA Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 122043
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...HURRICANE PAULA...WITH 100 MPH WINDS...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF
PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/122043.shtml?
 
Paula hugging the north coast of western Cuba

Hurricane PAULA Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 141139
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
700 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 84.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM...W OF PUERTO ESPERANZA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR OVER WESTERN
CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.

PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. THE WEATHER
STATION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A 60
MPH...97 KM/HR WIND GUST.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA TODAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/141139.shtml
 
Re: Paula hugging the north coast of western Cuba

Tropical Storm PAULA Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 142344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
800 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...WIND GUST
TO 54 MPH REPORTED IN HAVANA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD
DE LA HABANA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA
WAS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. PAULA PASSED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
HAVANA CUBA THIS EVENING AROUND 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF
41 MPH...67 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED
IN HAVANA DURING THE PAST HOUR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/142344.shtml
 
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