tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Pathogens
. 2020 Oct 13;9(10):E838.
doi: 10.3390/pathogens9100838.
Estimating the Percentage of a Population Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Using the Number of Reported Deaths: A Policy Planning Tool
Daniel R Feikin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Marc-Alain Widdowson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Kim Mulholland[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The magnitude of future waves of Covid19 in a population will depend, in part, on the percentage of that population already infected, recovered, and presumably immune. Sero-epidemiological surveys can define the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in various populations. However, sero-surveys are resource-intensive and methodologically challenging, limiting widespread use. We propose a relatively simple method for calculating the percentage of a population infected, which depends on the number of reported Covid19 deaths, a figure usually more reliable and less dependent on variable testing practices than the total number of reported Covid19 cases, and the infection fatality rate, a figure that is relatively stable in similar populations. The method can be applied in different sized areas, such as states, districts, or cities. Such an approach can provide useful, real-time estimates of probable population immunity in settings unable to undertake multiple sero-surveys. This method is applicable to low- and lower-middle-income country (LMIC) settings where sero-survey data will likely be limited; however, better estimates of infection fatality rates and Covid19 death counts in LMICs are needed to improve the method's accuracy. Information on the percentage of a population infected will help public health authorities in planning for future waves of Covid19, including where to most effectively deploy vaccines.
Keywords: Covid19; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; low- and middle-income countries; sero-prevalence; serology.
. 2020 Oct 13;9(10):E838.
doi: 10.3390/pathogens9100838.
Estimating the Percentage of a Population Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Using the Number of Reported Deaths: A Policy Planning Tool
Daniel R Feikin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Marc-Alain Widdowson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Kim Mulholland[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33066231
- DOI: 10.3390/pathogens9100838
Abstract
The magnitude of future waves of Covid19 in a population will depend, in part, on the percentage of that population already infected, recovered, and presumably immune. Sero-epidemiological surveys can define the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in various populations. However, sero-surveys are resource-intensive and methodologically challenging, limiting widespread use. We propose a relatively simple method for calculating the percentage of a population infected, which depends on the number of reported Covid19 deaths, a figure usually more reliable and less dependent on variable testing practices than the total number of reported Covid19 cases, and the infection fatality rate, a figure that is relatively stable in similar populations. The method can be applied in different sized areas, such as states, districts, or cities. Such an approach can provide useful, real-time estimates of probable population immunity in settings unable to undertake multiple sero-surveys. This method is applicable to low- and lower-middle-income country (LMIC) settings where sero-survey data will likely be limited; however, better estimates of infection fatality rates and Covid19 death counts in LMICs are needed to improve the method's accuracy. Information on the percentage of a population infected will help public health authorities in planning for future waves of Covid19, including where to most effectively deploy vaccines.
Keywords: Covid19; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; low- and middle-income countries; sero-prevalence; serology.