Pandemic threat-level market indicators

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

docter,
you don't need gold. Just a strict monetary,fiscal policy with clear rules
and no Aufweichung

DeniseMC, that was before UN-resolutions, before Bush said they had
some at that time. (and started war based on that)

 

[german-docter]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

you don't need gold. Just a strict monetary,fiscal policy with clear rules
and no Aufweichung (...)

You are absolutely right !

But I worry that this still will be Utopia for some time. International Monetary Fund (IMF) is thought to be the world's financial "bail out"- watchman. Does the IMF trust in national treasury departments ?



http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/030609.pdf

Quote:

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
The State of Public Finances: Outlook and Medium-Term Policies After the 2008 Crisis

Prepared by the Fiscal Affairs Department In cooperation with other departments
Approved by Carlo Cottarelli
March 6, 2009

(?)


VI. THE RISK FOR FISCAL SOLVENCY AND THE APPROPRIATE POLICY RESPONSE

The deterioration of the fiscal outlook highlighted in Chapter V raises issues of
fiscal solvency, and could eventually trigger adverse market reactions. Doubts about fiscal solvency?the risk that governments find it more convenient to repudiate their debt or to inflate it away?could lead to an increase in the cost of borrowing. In turn, higher interest rates (and exchange rate depreciations in countries with significant borrowing in foreign currency, like most emerging economies) could further add to government debts?in some cases, resulting in ?snowballing? debt dynamics. This scenario would be deleterious for global growth. Indeed, economic agents? confidence in governments? solvency has been a source of stability and has, so far, helped to avoid a complete meltdown of financial markets.
(?)

More generally, recent history suggests that an abrupt market reaction to
weakening fundamentals is possible. Thus, it is necessary to look closely at the risks arising from the deterioration of the fiscal outlook, and to draw implications for fiscal policy in the medium term.

(?)
The risk of a loss of confidence in government solvency: Fiscal balances are expected to deteriorate in bad times. But the risks have increased and there is a need to closely monitor developments in real interest rates, spreads, and debt maturity. The more these indicators weaken, the less would be the room for further fiscal action.

Balancing these risks will be challenging but the trade-off can be improved if governments clarify, in a credible way, their strategy to ensure fiscal solvency. Indeed, greater clarity is urgently needed. The problem cannot simply be ignored.​

It's true: You don't need gold...

... what about some barrels of crude oil or silver or platinum or palladium or energy supplies or foods or water or Tamiflu (at least for a while) or .... ?

I would prefer some tiny barrels of platinum in my pocket (maybe best price/volume ratio ?)

 

[Skatman]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

You are absolutely right !

It's true: You don't need gold...

... what about some barrels of crude oil or silver or platinum or palladium or energy supplies or foods or water or Tamiflu (at least for a while) or .... ?

I would prefer some tiny barrels of platinum in my pocket (maybe best price/volume ratio ?)

G-Doctor,

Last time I checked, I think diamonds had the best price/volume ratio, still if you have no market none of these can be used as the energy necessary to maintain life. I think your statement on preparation for a potentially medium-term isolation is a much better idea, primarily for those not living in the City since I don't know especially with the unrest that likely to ensue for one truly isolate as well as protect themselves in an Urban Environment.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

OTOH in the urban environment your neighbors are (hopefully) protecting you.
While you protect them...
You just need a community of like-thinking,intelligent(-->preping),honest fellows.
Where is it ?
I made an announcement in university - no response.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Biota up each day the last 3 days at trading start.

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...=7581&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=ASX:BTA&ntsp=0


maybe they can speed up the phase3 trials for CS-8958
or there are positive reports ?


http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=92115




Glaxo’s Relenza Sales Bolster Biota Royalty Receipts (Update2)

Share | Email | Print | A A A

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aBhcnYJ1LPOI
(loads slowly for me due to advertisements)

By Jason Gale
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Biota Holdings Ltd.’s royalties on the sale of GlaxoSmithKline
Plc’s flu drug Relenza surged in the fiscal fourth quarter, and may climb further on a
planned tripling in production. Biota shares climbed to the highest in almost two years.
Biota will receive A$8.9 million ($7.3 million) in payments from Glaxo for Relenza sales
in the three months ended June 30, the Melbourne-based company said in a
statement today. That compares with royalties of A$400,000 in the same quarter of 2008.
The stock added 8.6 percent to end trading at A$1.76 on the Australian exchange,
the highest since September 2007. Biota has risen fivefold since the start of the year.
Glaxo, based in London, plans to increase its annual production capacity of Relenza
to 190 million courses by the end of 2009, from the current 60 million, Biota said in a
separate statement. The additional supplies will help meet increased demand spurred
by the new H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu, that’s sparked the first influenza
pandemic in 41 years.
The extra production and any increase in resultant royalty payments won’t affect
Biota’s cash position until June 2010 at the earliest, the company said.
“Significant government stockpile orders placed after the swine flu outbreak in late
April 2009, would appear as sales in future quarters,” Biota said in the statement.
Biota receives at least 7 percent royalty on global sales of Relenza by Glaxo and
holds patents on the treatment in “major markets” that expire from December 2014, it said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at
j.gale@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 23, 2009 03:23 EDT


so, just Relenza - no news about CS-8958

 

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

1-Novavax says can ready H1N1 vaccine within 11 weeks

shares down 6% on the news
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...5&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:NVAX&ntsp=0

but still up 400% since panflu started


-----------
oops, old news. But an interview with the CEO was in the news today

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

NOVAVAX (NVAX) VACCINE WORKS AGAINST H1N1. OPPENHEIMER KEEPS OUTPERFORM
S&P Marketscope
SNPMarketScopeViewsNews2009-08-18 11:47:14.000NVAXNOVAVAX, INC.Brian EgliNOVAVAX (NVAX) VACCINE WORKS AGAINST H1N1. OPPENHEIMER KEEPS OUTPERFORM

Analyst Brian Abrahams tells salesforce NVAX announced positive preclinical results of its 2009 H1N1 vaccine in a ferret model. Believes these preclinical data provide additional proof-of-concept for NVAX's VLP technology platform, particularly its ability to produce vaccines more rapidly than traditional egg-based approaches. Thinks NVAX remains undervalued based on the potential of the VLP platform, and expects data from the second Phase IIb seasonal influenza study later this month to further validate this technology. Has $6 target./B.Egli|US;NVAX|27638|US|218607

 

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

this week: http://bit.ly/yyXHz dow,silver,euro,oil,treasury-bonds
flu-stocks: http://bit.ly/fFhzQ Novavax,Biocryst,Sinovac

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Hand sanitizer in short supply as swine flu hits
Makers of the antiseptic rush to increase production amid fears of a swine flu pandemic.

By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff reporter
Last Updated: October 23, 2009: 2:58 PM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Demand for hand sanitizer has gone through the roof since the first cases of swine flu broke out earlier this year, and some makers of the germ-fighting gels are scrambling to keep up.

Market research firm Panjiva recently estimated that 3 million kilograms of hand sanitizer were shipped in the third quarter, compared with 1 million kilograms in the same quarter last year.

Josh Green, chief executive of Panjiva, said concern about the H1N1 virus, also known as the swine flu, is the "most likely explanation" for the surge in volume.

And demand is only expected to rise given the outlook for an exceptionally bad flu season.

In response, the companies that make and distribute Purell, the most popular name-brand hand sanitizer, are ramping up production and urging customers to not hoard the product.

Heavy demand

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500), which makes Purell and distributes it to retailers, does not provide figures on sales or shipments of items such as hand sanitizer. But the company said demand for Purell has been "heavy" since the first cases of swine flu broke.

"Due to the influenza A (H1N1) virus outbreak this past spring and resurgence this fall, Johnson & Johnson Consumer Companies Inc. has experienced heavy demand on supplies of Purell," said J&J spokesman Marc Boston in a statement.

The company is working to increase production for the remainder of the year and the beginning of 2010, but Boston acknowledged that supplies may be limited in some areas.

"Because of this increase in demand, consumers may currently find limited supplies of Purell Instant Hand Sanitizer at certain retailers," he said.

Don't stockpile

GOJO Industries, the company that invented Purell and distributes it in professional markets, described the increase in demand as "unprecedented."

The Akron, Ohio-based company said it has been running its plants "24/7" and has hired additional workers to help increase output.

"Even with increased manufacturing capacity, there is a limit to how much we can produce in a short period of time," Mark Lerner, GOJO's chief operating officer, said in a prepared statement.

GOJO said it will provide U.S. distributors with more than their normal supply of Purell, but warned that it may not ship the full quantity ordered.

Lerner said the backlog is temporary and that GOJO expects to increase overall production "significantly" through 2010. "There is absolutely no need to stockpile product," Lerner said. "In fact, stockpiling could cause an actual shortage which, in turn, could threaten public health."

Nearly 400,000 people worldwide have contracted laboratory-confirmed cases of swine flu and more than 4,700 people have died from the illness since it was first identified in Mexico and the United States in April, the World Health Organization (WHO) said earlier this month.

Many countries have stopped counting individual cases, particularly of milder illness, according to the WHO. That means the total case count could be significantly lower than the number of swine flu cases that have actually occurred. To top of page

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

The seriousness of the Ukranian situation may be determined in tomorrow morning's pre-opening trade.

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

I don't know BB, Ukraine is a small country I don't think there will be ramifications unless the numbers reach something undeniable. Judging by the last couple of days of trading, it's possible the market will be lower by the close tomorrow.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Yes, I don't know if it will effect the whole market yet but it will be interesting to see if the flu biotechs (NVAX, AVII, BCRX, etc.) are the dominant ones trading pre-open. [Just turn on CNBC and watch that lower scroll bar.]
If they aren't actively trading, I would not be alarmed .
If they are, then the situation bears serious attention :magnify:.
If they continue to trade up all day and into the close - panic time .

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Checked the CNBC tickers this AM and saw nothing. I just checked pre-market quotes - Rutrow. All up at least 2.5 %. I'm here: :magnify: quickly going here:
Gold also went up $10 last night.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

The failure of injectable H1N1 vaccine manufacturers to meet current demands should be a disappointment to all shareholders of vaccine production companies. It ought to be a great opportunity to increase revenue streams.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Threat postponed. Whew. Flutechs acting normal.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

BCRX and NVAX both up over 6 % this morning. I would say that some determination has been made and the outcome is not good. But that's just me.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Pandemic fears may trigger more securitizations

Colleen McCarthy

NEW YORK?Deepening fears of the H1N1 flu pandemic could lead to an uptick in the life insurance securitization market, experts say.


The increasing geographic spread of the disease, combined with climbing death rates related to the virus, is highlighting potential exposure, experts say.


As a result, insurers with significant mortality exposure may look to specialized insurance-linked securities instruments called extreme mortality bonds to shift some of their risk to the capital market, experts say.
A recent life reinsurance report by New York-based Standard & Poor's Corp. said, despite a slowdown in the mortality bond market last year, the ?ongoing flu pandemic could spur further issuance as insurers and reinsurers seek to actively manage risk.?

more...


http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20091025/ISSUE03/310259994#

 

[Hogweed]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

BCRX and NVAX both up over 6 % this morning. I would say that some determination has been made and the outcome is not good. But that's just me.

I wonder if this is connected with the increasingly concerned comments by Henry N. In summary he believes WHO is delaying some information from Ukraine and specifically suggests changes at position HA 225

The same concern is noted at the PF11 blog

http://pf11.blogspot.com/

2009-11-09
225E Expectation in the Ukraine
PF11 SNP geographic analysis suggests that the Ukraine cases in the next two weeks may show a very similar genetic pattern to South America in August and the Mediterranean and Adriatic FlightPath in the past 8 weeks.

If the trend toward a higher infectivity of medical personnel continues as reported today of 687 doctors and 1,500 young specialists being ill, we would expect a higher death count in the coming days. Between 0.5% and 1.3% of all doctors in the country are ill (by region). Higher transmissibility is certain.

If a database of 100 sequences were to exist on the Ukraine, accurately cataloging a cross-reference of regions over 14 days of recent death and recovery cases, including major cities, rough expectations would indicate:

HA

225E
in moderate concentration (95% probability) with 206T

206T/225E/300S triplet
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (75% probability)

2E/206T/225E/298V quad combo
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 2 sequences) (>25% probability)

2E/206T/225G/298V quad combo
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (<10% probability)

225G
potential, but certainly not widespread under current clinical reports (75% probability) with 206T

2E/206S/296H triplet
in low concentration (95% probability)

377K
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (25% probability)

270T
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)

261V
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)

212 movement
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)

208K
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (33% probability)

188/189/190 movement
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>50% probability)

158E
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)

100N
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>25% probability)

35I
potential for appearance in moderate count (<20% probability)

NA

106I, 248N pairing
potential in very low count (<20% probability)

106I, 248N, 286G triplet
potential for introduction (7% probability until the 8th week of the flashfire

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

BCRX down over 4 % and NVAX down over 5 %. There is no emergency IMHO.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...TA;ETR:SVQ&cmptdms=0;1;1&q=NASDAQ:NVAX&ntsp=0

Novavax
Biocryst
Biota
Sinovac

(which shall we add ?)