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Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

US Treasury chief urges China to revalue currency

1 day ago
WASHINGTON (AFP) ? US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called Wednesday for an immediate revaluation of the Chinese currency after Beijing announced moves to tighten monetary policy for the first time in a decade.
He said that allowing flexibility of the tightly-controlled yuan was critical to cool the world's fastest growing economy battling serious inflationary pressures.
"A more flexible currency is especially important now, when the risks of inflation are clearly rising in the Chinese economy," Paulson said ahead of high-level talks between Washington and Beijing on key economic issues.
Paulson, speaking at a US-based Asia Society forum, said increased currency flexibility would allow China's central bank to "use the powerful tool of monetary policy for China's financial and price stability."
Economists have partly blamed Beijing's market intervention to contain the yuan's rise as a factor for fuelling inflation, overheating growth and asset-price bubbles in China.
Some of the yuan sold to mop up incoming foreign money to keep the Chinese currency weak has found its way into stocks and other investments, they say.
Paulson's concerns over the Chinese economy came ahead of his China trip to attend the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue on December 12-13.
Beijing said Wednesday it would tighten monetary policy in 2008 for the first time in 10 years, as it battles to rein in a soaring stock market and a red-hot economy at risk of overheating.
The shift to "tight monetary policies" was announced after the three-day Central Economic Work Conference, a closed-door meeting of top decision-makers from the Communist Party and government, Xinhua news agency said.
The conference, the most important economic gathering of the year, also made it a priority for 2008 to prevent overheating and curb inflation.
Paulson said the yuan might have appreciated by six percent in the past year but "the pace is still not fast enough to reduce China's global trade surplus, its internal imbalances, or foreign exchange market pressures."
The yuan exchange has become "more than an economic parameter" in US-China ties, he said. "It has become a touchstone for broader anxieties about competition from China."
Washington has led the international push for a rapid yuan appreciation, saying its artificially low value gives Chinese exporters an unfair edge on world markets.

China's economy expanded at a blistering rate of 11.5 percent in the third quarter of 2007, with inflation at a decade high.

Consumer prices are expected to shoot to a 10-year high of 4.5 to 4.6 percent this year, due mainly to soaring food prices, state media said.
Paulson cited Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's recent remarks at an East Asia summit in Singapore, emphasizing that China must now undertake comprehensive measures to control mounting inflation, growing asset bubbles, and an overheating economy.
"We share the concerns of China's top leaders on this issue," he said.
Noting the rise of economic nationalism both in the United States and China, Paulson said some in China were suspicious that Washington's push for yuan appreciation and financial market liberalization was an attempt to gain trade advantages and generate profits for US firms while slowing China's economic expansion.
"They mistakenly believe that yen appreciation during the mid-1980s caused Japan's weak economic performance in the 1990s," he said.
Japan's economic difficulties then were caused by the growth, and then collapse, of a huge stock and property price bubble, and the failure to use monetary policy to prevent the emergence of deflation after the bubble burst, he said.
US Trade Representative Susan Schwab, who will also attend the economic dialogue, highlighted what she called China's continued signs of slowing or even backsliding in market-oriented economic reforms.
"Protectionism and isolation from market forces only yields inefficiency, corruption, and trade frictions -- and that is not the path to a more harmonious society," she said.


http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gJ81L3QieYzP6fm3FhDWVVnsWNXQ
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

These three flu-biotechs all have a recent mentions of either bird flu or ebola on their Yahoo message boards. The news is known but still there are no significant moves other than FXI (Chinese ETF) is down 4 % now.

To restate the purpose of this thread: The assumption is that market participants will get the facts right before the news media or scientific community. When these flu stocks pop higher, mall retailers pop lower, ETFs of affected countries shoot lower - then that indicates that the threat level has increased.
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

That assumption is open to debate. :D

Very true ... but it will be neck and neck ... and it will be easy to judge who gets it right first. When the market makes its' move, hopefully someone will post it here and say "I think this is it". Then we'll see if there are any earlier posts on the other threads making the same call.

Right now, I think the market is saying that there's nothing to be worried about in China or elsewhere. This could. of course, change in the final trading hour. I'm obviously watching it like a hawk today. :magnify: ... because I'm :eek: today.
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

I think the market will exhibit a cascading effect in advance of a pandemic.
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

I think the market will exhibit a cascading effect in advance of a pandemic.

The market always respond more quickly to rumors than to hard facts. Rumors will certainly proceed any pandemic and the markets will respond negatively. It is just a question of how long the time interval will be between economic market events and actual public health events.
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Rumours will be a huge factor. Also, different markets will experience "highs" and "lows" as money chases the the safe haven "de jour".
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

I watch BCRX quite closely. Friday appeared to be a possible weak signal

On friday several other biotech/pharmas with less speculative flu bias (BAX, GILD) continued to do badly with the general market. However BCRX did well
However when the market is going down small stocks sometimes decouple from the down move - they generally catch up a few days later

China coming off is not a signal - its almost certainly a bubble and it coming off could be it starting to deflate of its own accord or a knock on effect of subprime.

At present malls or stock markets doing really badly can not be easily interpreted as a signal

my google news hit count is down from about 3200 to 2200 in a few days - despite (or because of ) the pick up in Pakistan. I expect it to pick up. However it was as low as 400 around the 10 Nov so the pick in Nov overall is noticeable ( almost certainly due be UK 2nd outbreak, polish thing etc)

Pakistan is a small stock market and with all its political instability is unlikely to offer any signals

Gold is in thrall to the usd's rebound. A sharp rally in it would be a confo. However the USD is likely to be a "safe haven" which could hurt gold so the EURCHF rate might be a alternative risk aversion indicator
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

In regard to BCRX, if Friday was truly a weak signal then today was a humdinger. Actually, since these moves have been on low volume, it probably doesn't mean much. Also, NVAX and AVII continued their downtrend.
In a real pandemic emergency, I think these stocks will all move higher on higher-than-normal volume. I expect to see these stocks active on the CNBC ticker. The other morning I turned on CNBC early and saw NVAX flying across the ticker so I went into panic mode until I turned on the PC and found that it was company specific news. :)
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Check out the Yahoo message boards on BCRX and NVAX. It's all abuzz with flu chatter. It's really amazing that BCRX has been up for two days when the market was significantly down. The bad: Lot of pumping and dumping on these boards. The good: These people are betting with their hard-earned dollars and not just idly speculating.
My current take: There's no immediate worry (this has all happened before - [two years ago with the Indonesian clusters]) but it's time to start watching closely. :magnify:
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

This week's activity would indicate that bird flu has been eradicated from the planet forever. :)
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

my bird flu index is down 18% since October !
Some strange down movements in AVII,CARN,ENCO,GNVC,HEB,
NNVC,NSTK,VXGN

Code:
n=33                          030312 070415 070602  070905  071006  071228
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
AEMD.OB Aethlon Medical         0.50   0.60   0.65    0.68    0.59    0.72
ALNY  Alnylam Pharmaceutical    5.00  19.45  15.91   25.93   34.01   28.96
AMAR.OB Amarillo Biosciences    0.20   0.80   0.65    0.41    0.38    0.26
AVAN Avant Immunotherapy        1.00   1.42   0.95    0.63    0.51    0.47
AVII AVI Biopharma Inc.         3.00   3.10   3.07    2.60    2.65    1.31
BCRX Biocryst Pharm. Inc.       1.50   9.91   8.27   12.54    7.36    5.89
BDSI Bio Delivery               2.00   6.00   5.13    3.94    3.86    2.80
BPAX BioSante Pharmaceuticals   2.20   6.50   6.80    6.05    5.61    3.85
BTA.AX  Biota                   0.50   1.58   1.72    1.71    1.62    1.20
CARN.PK Carrington Labs In      1.30   1.95   1.64    0.63    0.44    0.11
CBIA.PK Canopus Biopharma Inc.  4.25*  4.25*  4.25*   4.25*   4.25*   7.00
CBMXD Acacia Res-Combimt        2.50   0.52   0.68    5.22*   5.76    7.40
CPHD Cepheid Inc                3.50  12.19  11.92   19.33   24.58   26.43
CRXL Crucell NV ADS             2.50  25.89  22.90   20.25   19.90   16.64
CSL.AX  CSL                    13.00  85.00  88.80  100.35  103.86   36.29*
EFSF.OB efoodsafety             0.40   0.38   0.37    0.30    0.24    0.21
ENCO CVGR Covalent Group        2.30   3.80   3.10    2.81    2.90    1.63
GILD Gilead Sciences           18.00  78.42  83.00   36.47*2 41.86   46.33
GNBT Generex Biotech            1.00   1.66   1.40    1.53    1.49    1.66
GNVC GenVec                     1.50   4.10   3.21    2.29    2.42    1.37
HEB  Hemispherx Biopharm        1.50   1.74   1.52    1.20    1.64    0.82
IVGN Invitrogen                30.00  67.00  73.50   79.66   83.80   92.41
MEDI Medimmune Inc             30.00  44.19  57.96   58.00*  58.00*  58.00*
NNVC.OB Nanoviricides           1.20*  1.20   1.10    0.60    0.70    0.40
NSTK Nastech Pharm              7.00  12.26  12.17   14.15   15.24    3.97
NVAX Novavax Inc                3.00   3.02   3.14    3.41    3.87    3.35
OMRI Omrix Biopharmaceuticals  10.00  37.50  34.50   33.91   37.70   34.53
PDGI SFCC SFBC                  7.00  28.00  32.50   28.16   31.53   40.82
PDH.F Acambis                   3.00   2.00   1.90    1.78    1.71    1.49
QDEL Quidel CP                  2.50  12.61  14.57   16.81   19.81   19.53
SVA  Sinovac Biotech            1.00   3.39   2.80    3.60    5.66    5.20
TYA.F Toyama chemical           5.30   4.80   4.60    4.18    4.05    4.22
VICL Vical Inc.                 2.30   5.25   5.07    5.10    4.81    4.20
VXGN.PK Vaxgen Inc              2.50   2.00   1.65    1.43    1.45    0.57
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       2.786  0.961   0.988   1.030   0.819

CHIR
PSC Protein sciences
Medimmune --> AstraZeneca for $15.6B = $58 per share


bfi4.bas
http://finance.yahoo.com/p?k=pf_2
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

With today's action (as first trading day of '08) it looks like something major is in the works but it's not bird flu. Gold & gold stocks were up "huge" with the flu-biotechs down.
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Could the gold movement be due to the $100 oil paper trade?
That and that fact that the world is nervous about the US mortgage market mess. I'm nervous too when the Fed starts talking about cutting interest rates when oil is setting record highs.
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Today's moves were very interesting. appears to be quite strong activity across a broad spectrum of bioflu stocks, and some more mainstream stocks that are connected

Note in particular the rise in gilead, barr and teva these are all linked to tamiflu production. This may be possibly connected with a medium term rise in estimation of probability, the chance of some wild shots like bcrx paying off will fall.

The other bioflu stocks are mixed, some up quite strongly. as the market was indifferent I take this as a signal

CRXL.AS
CRUCELL Up 12.42% - - -
- - 19.00 1 2.98?2.98

BCRX
BIOCRYST PHARM INC
4:00PM ET 5.87 Down 0.16 Down 2.65%

SVA
SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD
4:00PM ET 5.18 Up 0.14 Up 2.78%

BAX
BAXTER INTL INC
4:01PM ET 58.61 Up 0.82 Up 1.42%

SOLB.BR
SOLVAY
11:35AM ET 94.79 Down 1.08 Down 1.13%
GILD
GILEAD SCIENCES
4:00PM ET 46.89 Up 1.55 Up 3.42%

NVAX
NOVAVAX INC
4:00PM ET 3.14 Down 0.12 Down 3.68%
TEVA
TEVA PHARM INDS AD
4:00PM ET 48.72 Up 1.72 Up 3.66%
BRL
BARR PHARMA INC
4:02PM ET 53.52 Up 1.01 Up 1.92%
GENEREX BIOTECH CORP
4:00PM ET 1.64 Up 0.03 Up 1.86%
AVII
AVI BIOPHARMA INC
4:00PM ET 1.48 Up 0.06 Up 4.23%

PPHM
PEREGRINE PHARMA INC
3:59PM ET 0.39 0.00 0.00%

EFSF.OB
EFOODSAFETY.COM INC
3:59PM ET 0.19 Down 0.02 Down 9.52%

AVAN
AVANT IMMUNOTHERAP
4:00PM ET 0.63 Up 0.07 Up 12.50%

GMED.PK
GENOMED INC
3:56PM ET 0.00 Up 0.0010 Up 33.33%

GSK.L
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
11:35AM ET 1285.00 Up 15.00 Up 1.18% - - -
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

mistake

crucell company specific

gilead company specific

some market chatter about some fund which may gave pushed up biotech generally

all got trashed today, but thats the market for you.....
 
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Yes, in the context of this thread, pandemic flu is not even on the radar at this moment.
 
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