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Pandemic threat-level market indicators
- Thread starter Binkerbear
- Start date
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Lots of noise in the market at the moment. Baxter is now going down as are most of the rest of the bioflu stocks that I watch. However the market in general is starting the suffer a bit and so the speculative bioflu stocks being high beta will be hit. earlier in the week gold was inching up, oil had reversed some of its surge and some vaccine stocks were doing well while the rest of bioflu was doing badly. that looked a bit odd for a time but with baxter falling and gold stalled it was probably me just misreading market noise.
JetStuuby I read and post on the gold thread though as I interest in the asset is wider than BF I mainly post elsewhere on gold. While GR is an excellent poster I have a different view to him on some of the details.
I mention gold here because it is one of my multiple indicators of threat level that I look to confirm the signal from the bioflu (which I have argued may fall when things move from run up to pandemic).
Lots of noise in the market at the moment. Baxter is now going down as are most of the rest of the bioflu stocks that I watch. However the market in general is starting the suffer a bit and so the speculative bioflu stocks being high beta will be hit. earlier in the week gold was inching up, oil had reversed some of its surge and some vaccine stocks were doing well while the rest of bioflu was doing badly. that looked a bit odd for a time but with baxter falling and gold stalled it was probably me just misreading market noise.
JetStuuby I read and post on the gold thread though as I interest in the asset is wider than BF I mainly post elsewhere on gold. While GR is an excellent poster I have a different view to him on some of the details.
I mention gold here because it is one of my multiple indicators of threat level that I look to confirm the signal from the bioflu (which I have argued may fall when things move from run up to pandemic).
Binkerbear
Well-known member
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
I see NVAX and BCRX are making healthy gains this morning with no company specific news.
I see NVAX and BCRX are making healthy gains this morning with no company specific news.
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
UK's bird flu hits U.S. chicken companies' shares
05 Feb 2007 19:26:57 GMT
By Bob Burgdorfer
CHICAGO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Stocks in the largest U.S. chicken companies were lower on Monday after the deadly bird flu hit a turkey farm in England, but U.S. chicken experts said there is no immediate danger to the $38.5 billion U.S. chicken industry.
"It has to be a knee-jerk reaction to the bird flu," Paul Aho, economist at Poultry Perspective, of the drop in stocks for Tyson Foods Inc. <TSN.N>, Pilgrim's Pride Corp. <PPC.N> , and Sanderson Farms Inc <SAFM.O>.
"I don't think we should be any more worried about this than we were before," he said.
However, the National Chicken Council expressed concern that the turkeys were infected despite being confined to barns. Commercially raised U.S. chickens and turkeys are also kept in barns, which had been seen as a safeguard against the flu.
"We will be interested to hear the results of the investigation on how it got in there," said Richard Lobb, spokesman for the National Chicken Council.
"At this point, there is no reason to think we have any higher risk than we had before," Lobb said of the U.S. chicken industry.
The H5N1 avian flu virus has killed 165 people in 10 countries -- Turkey, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Iraq, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Nigeria and Cambodia. It has infected 271, giving it a more than 50 percent fatality rate, but experts are unsure if some people may have had less serious infections that went undetected.
In response to outbreaks overseas, the United States has tightened biosecurity at poultry farms and increased surveillance of migratory birds to keep the flu out.
Previous outbreaks have hurt U.S. chicken exports as consumers overseas shun the bird.
A case of the deadly flu in a commercial flock would cause the flock to be destroyed and possibly surrounding flocks as well. Also, overseas buyers would likely ban chicken from the infected area.
Exports are important to the U.S. chicken industry, which sells about 15 percent of its production overseas. In 2006, chicken sales reached $38.5 billion.
Near midday on Monday, shares of Tyson Foods, the nation's largest meat producer, were down 9 cents at $18.03 per share; shares of Pilgrim's Pride, the largest U.S. chicken producer, were down 85 cents at $31.21; and shares of Sanderson Farms were down $1.84 at $30.44.
UK's bird flu hits U.S. chicken companies' shares
05 Feb 2007 19:26:57 GMT
By Bob Burgdorfer
CHICAGO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Stocks in the largest U.S. chicken companies were lower on Monday after the deadly bird flu hit a turkey farm in England, but U.S. chicken experts said there is no immediate danger to the $38.5 billion U.S. chicken industry.
"It has to be a knee-jerk reaction to the bird flu," Paul Aho, economist at Poultry Perspective, of the drop in stocks for Tyson Foods Inc. <TSN.N>, Pilgrim's Pride Corp. <PPC.N> , and Sanderson Farms Inc <SAFM.O>.
"I don't think we should be any more worried about this than we were before," he said.
However, the National Chicken Council expressed concern that the turkeys were infected despite being confined to barns. Commercially raised U.S. chickens and turkeys are also kept in barns, which had been seen as a safeguard against the flu.
"We will be interested to hear the results of the investigation on how it got in there," said Richard Lobb, spokesman for the National Chicken Council.
"At this point, there is no reason to think we have any higher risk than we had before," Lobb said of the U.S. chicken industry.
The H5N1 avian flu virus has killed 165 people in 10 countries -- Turkey, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Iraq, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Nigeria and Cambodia. It has infected 271, giving it a more than 50 percent fatality rate, but experts are unsure if some people may have had less serious infections that went undetected.
In response to outbreaks overseas, the United States has tightened biosecurity at poultry farms and increased surveillance of migratory birds to keep the flu out.
Previous outbreaks have hurt U.S. chicken exports as consumers overseas shun the bird.
A case of the deadly flu in a commercial flock would cause the flock to be destroyed and possibly surrounding flocks as well. Also, overseas buyers would likely ban chicken from the infected area.
Exports are important to the U.S. chicken industry, which sells about 15 percent of its production overseas. In 2006, chicken sales reached $38.5 billion.
Near midday on Monday, shares of Tyson Foods, the nation's largest meat producer, were down 9 cents at $18.03 per share; shares of Pilgrim's Pride, the largest U.S. chicken producer, were down 85 cents at $31.21; and shares of Sanderson Farms were down $1.84 at $30.44.
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
This is clearly a signal day with the UK news
my google hit count is now 7912 and it was only 5563 on friday ( but still far below the 36K of spring 2006)
As expected with all the media interest a fair proportion of the bioflu and vaccine stocks were up today ( though not all medimmune, gilead were down). It was clear it was going to be a good day because biota for the bioflu stocks in the aussia market did well and the european stocks like crucell all did ok.
Biota
Up 2.63%
BCRX
Up 6.23%
SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD
Up 7.84%
NOVAVAX INC
Up 2.44%
GENEREX BIOTECH CORP
Up 2.86%
VIRAGEN INC
Up 6.67%
PEREGRINE PHARMA INC
Down 2.54%
BAXTER INTL INC
Up 0.48%
SOLVAY
Up 2.25%
CRUCELL
Up 0.89%
SANOFI-AVENTIS
Up 0.67%
Expect if the UK story fades so the moves in these stocks will tend to wind back. However the moves do not indicate the market is very interested because none of the moves are dramatic.
This is clearly a signal day with the UK news
my google hit count is now 7912 and it was only 5563 on friday ( but still far below the 36K of spring 2006)
As expected with all the media interest a fair proportion of the bioflu and vaccine stocks were up today ( though not all medimmune, gilead were down). It was clear it was going to be a good day because biota for the bioflu stocks in the aussia market did well and the european stocks like crucell all did ok.
Biota
Up 2.63%
BCRX
Up 6.23%
SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD
Up 7.84%
NOVAVAX INC
Up 2.44%
GENEREX BIOTECH CORP
Up 2.86%
VIRAGEN INC
Up 6.67%
PEREGRINE PHARMA INC
Down 2.54%
BAXTER INTL INC
Up 0.48%
SOLVAY
Up 2.25%
CRUCELL
Up 0.89%
SANOFI-AVENTIS
Up 0.67%
Expect if the UK story fades so the moves in these stocks will tend to wind back. However the moves do not indicate the market is very interested because none of the moves are dramatic.
Binkerbear
Well-known member
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Looks like you're right; maybe it's because GR started the thread.
I'm away from home for two months on a dial-up but I will certainly be starting a new one in early April ...if it doesn't reappear by then.
Looks like you're right; maybe it's because GR started the thread.
I'm away from home for two months on a dial-up but I will certainly be starting a new one in early April ...if it doesn't reappear by then.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
seems that this is being discontinued.
Maybe the economics has lost interest in bird flu...
Any other webpage with a birdflu - index ?
seems that this is being discontinued.
Maybe the economics has lost interest in bird flu...
Any other webpage with a birdflu - index ?
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Generally much of the bioflu plays have been playing their traditional roles of high beta stocks in the market fluctuations of the last months.
However the more traditional less speculative stocks seem to my mind to be not doing so bad. Solvay and Baxter seem to be doing well, GILD and MEDI have not been without attractions. While I do not have the analytic skills to do a regression against the pharma or biotech sector their relative strength (subjective) appears a bit odd.
Note the meanwhile the google index of news hits has fallen over the spring from 10K ish to 4K ish but may now be stabilizing. We are leaving the Northern Hemisphere flu season so one would expect a claw back in all bioflu plays ( and it apparent in the purer ones like BCRX) but some of the vax companies still appear a bit strong and it mystifies me.
The media may have lost interest but the countries such as indo, china and Egypt keep bubbling away....
Generally much of the bioflu plays have been playing their traditional roles of high beta stocks in the market fluctuations of the last months.
However the more traditional less speculative stocks seem to my mind to be not doing so bad. Solvay and Baxter seem to be doing well, GILD and MEDI have not been without attractions. While I do not have the analytic skills to do a regression against the pharma or biotech sector their relative strength (subjective) appears a bit odd.
Note the meanwhile the google index of news hits has fallen over the spring from 10K ish to 4K ish but may now be stabilizing. We are leaving the Northern Hemisphere flu season so one would expect a claw back in all bioflu plays ( and it apparent in the purer ones like BCRX) but some of the vax companies still appear a bit strong and it mystifies me.
The media may have lost interest but the countries such as indo, china and Egypt keep bubbling away....
Binkerbear
Well-known member
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Certainly he'll be back when TSHTF ...won't he ?
Certainly he'll be back when TSHTF ...won't he ?
Binkerbear
Well-known member
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Interesting divergence. Luskin has a recent article (about this chart) at his website. He particularly likes AVII's Tamiflu competitor.
Interesting divergence. Luskin has a recent article (about this chart) at his website. He particularly likes AVII's Tamiflu competitor.
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