Pandemic planning not a priority in U.S., despite bird-flu threat

[Laidback Al]

Hat-tip to Kassy

Pandemic planning not a priority in U.S., despite bird-flu threat
Patrick Thibodeau
July 03, 2007 (Computerworld)
Last November, Gartner Inc. analyst Ken McGee gave a presentation on the risk of an avian flu pandemic to an audience of IT professionals at a conference in Las Vegas. He concluded with this recommendation: Complete your pandemic planning by Q2 of 2007.
This year's second quarter ended on Saturday. But despite his admonition, McGee believes that few IT organizations are ready for a possible pandemic.
"Most clients would not be prepared if this descended upon the world tomorrow -- they just simply would not be ready," he said. "I think it's just part of the human condition: You don't put the stop sign up until after the traffic accident."
McGee is as concerned as ever about the threat of a pandemic, but he's worried that fears are waning in the U.S. And, he said, he's afraid "that people will learn the hard way that they cannot respond to a pandemic situation once it has been declared, because everyone will be trying to do that and nothing will get done."
The declining level of concern cited by McGee was backed up by poll results released Monday by Ipsos Public Affairs, a research organization that has offices in New York, Washington and other U.S. cities.
Ipsos conducted an online survey of 1,438 U.S. residents who are over the age of 18. When asked about the issue of avian flu in the U.S., 27% of the respondents said they were "concerned" -- down from 35% in a similar survey last year. Forty-one percent said they were "not concerned," compared with 31% a year ago.
The Ipsos poll received almost no news coverage, according to a Google News search. Indeed, one of the poll questions asked, "How much have you read, heard or seen about bird flu?" In 2006, 74% of the people who were surveyed answered "a lot/some." This year, the percentage of respondents who chose that answer fell to 56%.
Scott McPherson, CIO of the Florida House of Representatives and head of the Florida CIO Pandemic Preparedness Committee, tracks news about the avian flu on a daily basis. He can quickly cite the most recent mortality rates or list recent incidents, such as the death of five swans and a goose in Germany due to the H5N1 bird-flu virus. McPherson said he's mystified by the lack of attention that the threat is getting in the U.S.
He contrasted that with the level of interest that the avian flu gets in countries such as Indonesia. "If you live in Jakarta, this is all you think about it," McPherson said. "If you live in the United States, all you think about is Paris Hilton. What the heck has happened to us?"
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been keeping statistics on confirmed human cases of the H5N1 virus since 2003. The WHO reported a total of 317 cases and 191 deaths worldwide as of last Friday. It said that in 2006, 79 people died from avian flu. Thus far this year, there have been 33 deaths, according to the WHO.
McPherson thinks that IT organizations not only need to plan for a potential pandemic but, more important, must have a planning process that can continuously adapt to changing conditions -- thereby remaining flexible.
For instance, McPherson said telecommuting programs will ultimately become unworkable if a pandemic occurs because of network-overload problems and a lack of access to broadband connections for many employees.
And at government agencies and other organizations where workers need access to paper forms, paper that is potentially laden with the virus will have to be quarantined for up to 24 hours, McPherson said. No one will be able to count on timely deliveries of such forms to workers at their homes, he added.
IT managers "need to prepare for what happens after the work-at-home plans implode," McPherson said. "And that is an army of people coming back into office buildings in close physical proximity to one another in order to keep the economy going."

http://www.computerworld.com/action...ewArticleBasic&articleId=9026179&pageNumber=1

 

[scottmcpherson]

Re: Pandemic planning not a priority in U.S., despite bird-flu threat

Thanks Al! Did not think anyone would read this beyond the IT community.
Scott

 

[Chuckwks]

Re: Pandemic planning not a priority in U.S., despite bird-flu threat

I can understand this, being a long time professional contingency planner. It is easy for a corporation to get interested in doing contingency planning when the hurricane is out in the Atlantic headed for our shores, a lot less so in January. The perception is that it isn't a story with the talking heads, or in the daily newspaper, so it must not be real important. Of course these are the same reliable news sources that make Paris Hilton one of the most important people on the planet. Talks I have given to other industries are always opened with the question of "Are you planning on staying in business?". Almost always the agreement is yes we are, but they are focused on other more tangible threats; competition, costs of supplies, out of control expenses, etc. Things that will cut their bonus, not things that will destroy the business. After all, none of the 35-55 year olds running corporate America have ever seen a company shut down because of disease outbreak, it wasn't ever discussed in their college business administration courses, their parents who were born after the last pandemic never mentioned it, so it must not be a big deal. We have become a "just enough" society, doing just enough to get by, just enough to keep the auditors and stockholders satisfied, just enough to keep the customer base they have. It is hard in that type of atmosphere to get pandemic planning on the radar scope, much less get any action to prepare. The same goes for individuals. I only think the planning effort by most individuals and corporations will occur after it shows up in Atlanta, New York, Houston, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Unfortunately, at that point most planning and preparation will be of limited value, and as many technical manuals frequently state, "Results of such actions are unpredictable". I'm afraid that corporate planning for pandemic has become "just enough" to handle an audit, not enough to handle a pandemic.
DRS

 

[scottmcpherson]

Re: Pandemic planning not a priority in U.S., despite bird-flu threat

Chuck,
Amen to that comment!
Corporations and governments are not doing enough to prepare. They do not understand that this planning can be heavily leveraged to prepare for "bioterrorism," chemical attacks, etc. which are far more sexy to them than some unseen virus.

Here in Tallahassee, we have a motto that once you have prepared for hurricanes and pandemics, you have covered the waterfront. Everything else is easy. Problem is, no one is ready for a pandemic, no matter how much they protest that they are. Every day, I quote Ike's warning: The plan's useless; it's the planning that's important. Not that plans should not be made. It is just that plans will falter and fail, and the planning process helps people work around those inevitable issues.

That is why on my blogsite, www.scottmcpherson.net , I warn organizations not to simply hire those expensive consulting firms to come in and write a plan and wrap it up in a pretty little bow. Hire consultants and individuals with experience, such as yourself, to facilitate a plan's coming together, and certainly to scribe and mentor, but the organization itself must have skin in the game. Because when components of that plan falter, those left behind must cope with the planning process. And if they are not exercised, veteran planners with experience and training, they will fail.

 

[Chuckwks]

Re: Pandemic planning not a priority in U.S., despite bird-flu threat

Well Scott, you have hit the nail on the head. Hurricane planning is great to get started, but there are two aspects of hurricanes that escape most people; 1). The major part of the storm is over in 24 hours, the aftermath may take weeks, months or years to deal with, but the threat to life greatly diminishes after the first 24-48 hours is past, so you only need limited supplies until help arrives. 2). The hurricane may significantly affect a 50 mile wide area for 40 or 50 miles inland, but the surrounding areas can still function and send help. Neither of these conditions will be valid in a pandemic situation. We have never had in our history, a situation where we have had to survive for so long without outside help. During the 1918 pandemic, even though it was disruptive, the average household had a diversity of local places to continue getting food, and not depending on long distance trucking to supply our needs. Families did home canning, as food grown locally in season was preserved right at it's source. I don't know of any studies that have been done, but I would guess that most families had 2-6 weeks worth of food stored in their own homes in 1918, stored in the old familiar mason jars. I heard somewhere recently that Los Angeles had only about 2 days food on average stored in their warehouses for their population. My guess is that most other cities are in the same boat. We have become like my dogs, they don't know where the food comes from, but it appears every evening in the bowls magically for them to eat. Fortunately for them, I have about 6 months worth stored, so they can continue the evening ritual with a short disruption. I think if most people were aware of how close to the edge we stand on everything necessary for life, they would be getting very very woried, and demanding some governmental action, as well as setting aside some additional for themselves. But hey, that is heavy stuff, lets turn on the news and distract ourselves with Paris Hilton or Britney Spears latest stupidity. Chuck