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Moderator
Pandemic panic: Stop worrying
Feds say bird flu is coming to U.S. But experts stress that outbreak among humans is highly unlikely here
By Ryan Robinson
Lancaster New Era
Published: May 01, 2006 12:35 PM EST
LANCASTER COUNTY, PA - How concerned should you be about bird flu?
Health officials say if the H5N1 strain of avian influenza mutates into a form that can spread from human to human, it could kill more than half a million Americans.
But hold on a minute, animal disease experts and agriculture officials say. Unless the very rare human-to-human transmission occurs, heightened local concern is overblown and hurtful to poultry farmers.
“Some are saying the sky is falling,” said Dr. Eva Wallner-Pendleton, an avian diagnostic veterinarian with Penn State Extension. “There is no need for panic as yet.”
The World Health Organization reports H5N1 has killed 113 people in nine countries in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, but experts say the strain of avian flu will likely strike only birds if it comes to the United States.
Federal officials say virus-infected migratory waterfowl will likely penetrate U.S. borders within a few months.
But H5N1 is unlikely to mutate into a strain that could pass easily from human to human and cause a pandemic, according to experts.
None of the 205 people in nine countries diagnosed with the strain in the last two years is known to have gotten it from another human.
People currently can catch the H5N1 virus only by being in very close contact with the saliva or feces of infected birds.
The virus can’t be transmitted through cooked meat or eggs, so there is no danger from eating poultry, experts say.
Ducks, chickens and geese would most likely be the only ones affected if the virus comes to the United States.
And thanks to past outbreaks of avian flu in Pennsylvania, the poultry industry has mounted a formidable defense to keep bird flu from ravaging area farms as it did in a 1983-84 outbreak.
“It may show up,” said Greg Martin, extension poultry educator for Lancaster County. “If it does, we know what to do to squash it.”
A deadly visitor
Bird flu-infected birds might arrive in Alaska or Canada in the next few months and then follow popular flyways into parts of the U.S. mainland.
The Alaskan and Pacific bird flyways are widely considered the most likely to first encounter H5N1-infected birds.
But Dr. Paul Knepley, a veterinarian with the state Department of Agriculture’s Bureau of Animal Health and Diagnostic Services, said the Atlantic flyway &tstr; where Lancaster County is located &tstr; is another possibility.
“We are not last on the list,” he said, noting that some migratory waterfowl like to visit Lake Erie.
Waterfowl carry the virus in their intestinal tract and shed particles in their feces.
Susceptible birds on the ground can inhale those particles and become infected. They can pass the infection on to other birds through their nasal and oral secretions and feces.
The virus also could be introduced through imported live birds or illegally imported manure-contaminated products.
Outbreak
In the case of an avian influenza outbreak, the state Department of Agriculture would lead containment and eradication efforts.
If it jumps to humans, the state Department of Health would take charge.
County Emergency Management Director Randy Gockley said his agency would serve as a support to those organizations.
“I feel comfortable with where we’re at,” Gockley said. “Any potential outbreaks in the United States could be months away. It’s not an imminent emergency.”
Department of Health officials are planning a series of regional meetings for agencies here beginning in late May or early June, he said.
Pandemic?
An avian influenza outbreak in poultry is one thing. Such an outbreak sparking a pandemic, or widespread disease outbreak among humans, is quite another.
Some media reports have highlighted that worst-case scenario.
Health officials have warned that an influenza pandemic could occur suddenly and kill half a million Americans or more &tstr; including over 9,000 in Pennsylvania.
Another 1.6 million or so Pennsylvanians could need inpatient or outpatient hospital care, according to their predictions.
A pandemic could drastically disrupt critical services and cause severe economic losses, health officials have said.
Nationally, computer models show that 28 to 33 percent of the population would get sick during a pandemic flu.
Bill Hall, spokesman for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, said his agency has 28 million courses of the antiviral Tamiflu, but acknowledged that only 5 million courses are on hand. The other courses are on order and should arrive by the end of the year.
That’s enough Tamiflu to treat 9.3 percent of the population.
But several animal virus experts and agriculture officials contend that the chance of a pandemic occurring from the current H5N1 strain of avian flu is extremely remote.
“Too many gene changes would be required,” said Knepley.
Those changes are necessary to start a pandemic among humans.
Since 1996, millions of people have been exposed to H5N1. Of them, just 204 have been infected.
Several veterinarians and extension agents who work with poultry say media reports about avian influenza have hurt the industry.
Globally, poultry consumption has fallen 3 percent. Live bird market sales have fallen 30 to 40 percent in the United States.
The defense
To try to prevent bird flu from striking the United States, the federal government conducts surveillance testing, border protection, trade restrictions and outreach programs.
It also has a prepared emergency response for any flu outbreak.
If avian influenza is found in wild birds, the Wildlife Services Department of the Interior would head up a response.
In the case of a pandemic flu outbreak, Health and Human Services would lead the way.
“The key is early detection and act quickly,” said Dr. Chrislyn Wood of the United States Department of Agriculture.
Wood is a member of Pennsylvania’s avian influenza response team and conducts surveillance at New York and New Jersey live-bird markets.
They are high-risk centers for avian flu since birds from different areas are brought together in a confined space.
Wood said legally imported birds and wild birds are also tested for avian influenza, and so far none have tested positive for H5N1.
“A lot is being done at our borders and ports,” she added.
Gov. Ed Rendell said Pennsylvania paces the nation in avian flu preparedness.
The state for 20 years has had a surveillance program. Last year, more than 240,000 samples from birds were tested, more than any other state.
Martin, a certified poultry technician, said that number will likely rise this year.
“We have the most extensive program in the nation,” he said.
Three diagnostic laboratories in the state can provide avian flu test results in a 24-hour period, Martin said.
The tests themselves are also better, faster and cheaper than previous ones.
In the case that avian flu is found on a farm, a veterinarian can call for a quarantine and the increased testing of nearby flocks. Expansion of the quarantine area depends on the severity of the illness, Martin said.
Last year, a mild strain of avian flu was found on a Mount Joy farm but did not spread.
Poultry officials say anywhere from three to 20 avian flu cases are found in Pennsylvania each year, but the typically mild strains are quickly contained.
Consumers should not have any concerns about poultry from a grocery store, which officials say comes from flocks tested for avian influenza.
Besides, bringing poultry to at least 180 degrees during cooking has been shown to kill the virus.
In the case of a H5N1 outbreak, high-quality particle face masks would provide another level of defense, Wallner-Pendleton said.
HistoryAmericans have been struck by three major influenza pandemics since 1900.
The “Spanish flu” killed over 500,000 Americans and 20 million to 50 million people worldwide in 1918-19.
The “Asian flu” killed about 70,000 in the United States in 1957-58. The “Hong Kong flu” killed 34,000 Americans in 1968-69.
Far more prevalent are avian influenza outbreaks that do not threaten human health.
The 1983-84 outbreak that struck the heart of Pennsylvania’s poultry industry in Lancaster County has been called the world’s worst bird flu epidemic.
Avian influenza circulated six months before it mutated into a highly pathogenic strain.
By the time it ran its course, the state lost 17 million birds and $60 million.
Consumers nationally paid $349 million more for eggs and poultry meat products until Pennsylvania’s industry recovered, according to the state agriculture department.
Three other avian influenza outbreaks, which were not widespread, have struck Pennsylvania since 1984.
Only one of them, in 1997-98, was local. Twenty-two farms were infected in Lancaster and Lebanon counties. About 1.3 million birds died.
Feds say bird flu is coming to U.S. But experts stress that outbreak among humans is highly unlikely here
By Ryan Robinson
Lancaster New Era
Published: May 01, 2006 12:35 PM EST
LANCASTER COUNTY, PA - How concerned should you be about bird flu?
Health officials say if the H5N1 strain of avian influenza mutates into a form that can spread from human to human, it could kill more than half a million Americans.
But hold on a minute, animal disease experts and agriculture officials say. Unless the very rare human-to-human transmission occurs, heightened local concern is overblown and hurtful to poultry farmers.
“Some are saying the sky is falling,” said Dr. Eva Wallner-Pendleton, an avian diagnostic veterinarian with Penn State Extension. “There is no need for panic as yet.”
The World Health Organization reports H5N1 has killed 113 people in nine countries in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, but experts say the strain of avian flu will likely strike only birds if it comes to the United States.
Federal officials say virus-infected migratory waterfowl will likely penetrate U.S. borders within a few months.
But H5N1 is unlikely to mutate into a strain that could pass easily from human to human and cause a pandemic, according to experts.
None of the 205 people in nine countries diagnosed with the strain in the last two years is known to have gotten it from another human.
People currently can catch the H5N1 virus only by being in very close contact with the saliva or feces of infected birds.
The virus can’t be transmitted through cooked meat or eggs, so there is no danger from eating poultry, experts say.
Ducks, chickens and geese would most likely be the only ones affected if the virus comes to the United States.
And thanks to past outbreaks of avian flu in Pennsylvania, the poultry industry has mounted a formidable defense to keep bird flu from ravaging area farms as it did in a 1983-84 outbreak.
“It may show up,” said Greg Martin, extension poultry educator for Lancaster County. “If it does, we know what to do to squash it.”
A deadly visitor
Bird flu-infected birds might arrive in Alaska or Canada in the next few months and then follow popular flyways into parts of the U.S. mainland.
The Alaskan and Pacific bird flyways are widely considered the most likely to first encounter H5N1-infected birds.
But Dr. Paul Knepley, a veterinarian with the state Department of Agriculture’s Bureau of Animal Health and Diagnostic Services, said the Atlantic flyway &tstr; where Lancaster County is located &tstr; is another possibility.
“We are not last on the list,” he said, noting that some migratory waterfowl like to visit Lake Erie.
Waterfowl carry the virus in their intestinal tract and shed particles in their feces.
Susceptible birds on the ground can inhale those particles and become infected. They can pass the infection on to other birds through their nasal and oral secretions and feces.
The virus also could be introduced through imported live birds or illegally imported manure-contaminated products.
Outbreak
In the case of an avian influenza outbreak, the state Department of Agriculture would lead containment and eradication efforts.
If it jumps to humans, the state Department of Health would take charge.
County Emergency Management Director Randy Gockley said his agency would serve as a support to those organizations.
“I feel comfortable with where we’re at,” Gockley said. “Any potential outbreaks in the United States could be months away. It’s not an imminent emergency.”
Department of Health officials are planning a series of regional meetings for agencies here beginning in late May or early June, he said.
Pandemic?
An avian influenza outbreak in poultry is one thing. Such an outbreak sparking a pandemic, or widespread disease outbreak among humans, is quite another.
Some media reports have highlighted that worst-case scenario.
Health officials have warned that an influenza pandemic could occur suddenly and kill half a million Americans or more &tstr; including over 9,000 in Pennsylvania.
Another 1.6 million or so Pennsylvanians could need inpatient or outpatient hospital care, according to their predictions.
A pandemic could drastically disrupt critical services and cause severe economic losses, health officials have said.
Nationally, computer models show that 28 to 33 percent of the population would get sick during a pandemic flu.
Bill Hall, spokesman for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, said his agency has 28 million courses of the antiviral Tamiflu, but acknowledged that only 5 million courses are on hand. The other courses are on order and should arrive by the end of the year.
That’s enough Tamiflu to treat 9.3 percent of the population.
But several animal virus experts and agriculture officials contend that the chance of a pandemic occurring from the current H5N1 strain of avian flu is extremely remote.
“Too many gene changes would be required,” said Knepley.
Those changes are necessary to start a pandemic among humans.
Since 1996, millions of people have been exposed to H5N1. Of them, just 204 have been infected.
Several veterinarians and extension agents who work with poultry say media reports about avian influenza have hurt the industry.
Globally, poultry consumption has fallen 3 percent. Live bird market sales have fallen 30 to 40 percent in the United States.
The defense
To try to prevent bird flu from striking the United States, the federal government conducts surveillance testing, border protection, trade restrictions and outreach programs.
It also has a prepared emergency response for any flu outbreak.
If avian influenza is found in wild birds, the Wildlife Services Department of the Interior would head up a response.
In the case of a pandemic flu outbreak, Health and Human Services would lead the way.
“The key is early detection and act quickly,” said Dr. Chrislyn Wood of the United States Department of Agriculture.
Wood is a member of Pennsylvania’s avian influenza response team and conducts surveillance at New York and New Jersey live-bird markets.
They are high-risk centers for avian flu since birds from different areas are brought together in a confined space.
Wood said legally imported birds and wild birds are also tested for avian influenza, and so far none have tested positive for H5N1.
“A lot is being done at our borders and ports,” she added.
Gov. Ed Rendell said Pennsylvania paces the nation in avian flu preparedness.
The state for 20 years has had a surveillance program. Last year, more than 240,000 samples from birds were tested, more than any other state.
Martin, a certified poultry technician, said that number will likely rise this year.
“We have the most extensive program in the nation,” he said.
Three diagnostic laboratories in the state can provide avian flu test results in a 24-hour period, Martin said.
The tests themselves are also better, faster and cheaper than previous ones.
In the case that avian flu is found on a farm, a veterinarian can call for a quarantine and the increased testing of nearby flocks. Expansion of the quarantine area depends on the severity of the illness, Martin said.
Last year, a mild strain of avian flu was found on a Mount Joy farm but did not spread.
Poultry officials say anywhere from three to 20 avian flu cases are found in Pennsylvania each year, but the typically mild strains are quickly contained.
Consumers should not have any concerns about poultry from a grocery store, which officials say comes from flocks tested for avian influenza.
Besides, bringing poultry to at least 180 degrees during cooking has been shown to kill the virus.
In the case of a H5N1 outbreak, high-quality particle face masks would provide another level of defense, Wallner-Pendleton said.
HistoryAmericans have been struck by three major influenza pandemics since 1900.
The “Spanish flu” killed over 500,000 Americans and 20 million to 50 million people worldwide in 1918-19.
The “Asian flu” killed about 70,000 in the United States in 1957-58. The “Hong Kong flu” killed 34,000 Americans in 1968-69.
Far more prevalent are avian influenza outbreaks that do not threaten human health.
The 1983-84 outbreak that struck the heart of Pennsylvania’s poultry industry in Lancaster County has been called the world’s worst bird flu epidemic.
Avian influenza circulated six months before it mutated into a highly pathogenic strain.
By the time it ran its course, the state lost 17 million birds and $60 million.
Consumers nationally paid $349 million more for eggs and poultry meat products until Pennsylvania’s industry recovered, according to the state agriculture department.
Three other avian influenza outbreaks, which were not widespread, have struck Pennsylvania since 1984.
Only one of them, in 1997-98, was local. Twenty-two farms were infected in Lancaster and Lebanon counties. About 1.3 million birds died.