Pandemic Influenza H1N1: Reconciling Serosurvey Data With Estimates of the Reproduction Number

[tetano]

Epidemiology. 2011 Nov 14. [Epub ahead of print]
Pandemic Influenza H1N1: Reconciling Serosurvey Data With Estimates of the Reproduction Number.
Glass K, Kelly H, Mercer GN.
Source

From the aNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; and bEpidemiology Unit, Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Melbourne, Australia.
Abstract
BACKGROUND:

During the 2009 pandemic of influenza A (H1N1), many studies reported estimates of the reproduction number from outbreak data. Since then, seroprevalence studies have been conducted in a number of countries to assess the proportion of the population that was infected in the first wave of the pandemic.
METHODS:

Here, we collate the reproduction number estimates, and use mathematical models to reconcile these with serosurvey data.
RESULTS:

Most estimates of the reproduction number from outbreaks are in the range of 1.0-2.0, whereas mean estimates calculated from seroprevalence data range from 1.14 to 1.36. Age-specific analysis of these data suggests that the reproduction number for children was approximately 1.6, whereas the reproduction numbers for adults >25 years of age was less than 1.0.
CONCLUSION:

The difference between age-groups may help to explain high estimates of the reproduction number from outbreaks involving a large proportion of child cases.

PMID:
22089631
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22089631