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Pandemic H1N1 Week 23

H

HenryN

Retired
The latest CDC weekly report on seasonal flu now refers to the novel H1N1 as Pandemic H1N1 in the chart associated with the table below (click link to see chart)
<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>INFLUENZA VIRUSES ISOLATED BY
WHO/NREVSS Collaborating Laboratories
2008 - 2009 Season
</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH id=header1 width=70>Week</TH><TH id=header2 width=90>A(H1)</TH><TH id=header3 width=70>A(Novel H1N1)</TH><TH id=header4 width=70>A(H3)</TH><TH id=header5 width=70>A(Could Not Subtyped)</TH><TH id=header6 width=70>A(Unk)</TH><TH id=header7 width=70>B </TH><TH id=header8 align=right>Total # Tested</TH><TH id=header9 align=right>% Positive</TH></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>40 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>3 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>8 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>2606 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>0.65 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>41 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>5 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>4 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>8 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>2665 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>0.86 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>42 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>13 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>3 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>15 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>2766 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.34 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>43 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>22 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>24 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>14 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>3224 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.86 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>44 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>12 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>3 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>21 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>5 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>3339 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.23 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>45 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>32 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>2 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>23 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>11 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>3943 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.72 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>46 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>25 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>2 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>23 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>12 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4165 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.49 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>47 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>27 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>31 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>23 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4562 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.8 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>48 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>40 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>47 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>24 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4667 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>2.4 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>49 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>43 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>57 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>14 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>5376 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>2.23 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>50 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>71 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>9 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>66 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>37 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>5817 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>3.15 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>51 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>73 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>19 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>108 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>56 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6086 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>4.21 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>52 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>71 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>12 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>153 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>51 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>5860 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>4.9 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>53 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>115 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>19 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>171 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>48 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6317 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>5.59 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>01 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>165 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>27 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>285 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>83 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6703 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>8.35 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>02 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>199 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>22 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>423 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>97 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6835 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>10.84 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>03 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>349 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>44 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>623 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>186 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>7633 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>15.75 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>04 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>559 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>78 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>898 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>359 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>9057 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>20.91 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>05 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>675 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>52 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>1359 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>672 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>11499 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>23.98 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>06 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>816 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>63 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>1367 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>916 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>12643 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>25.01 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>07 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>819 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>65 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>1075 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>895 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>11556 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>24.71 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>08 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>678 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>59 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>1003 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>1100 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>11779 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>24.11 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>09 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>537 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>58 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>885 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>1092 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>10534 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>24.42 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>10 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>373 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>63 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>638 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>1009 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>9307 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>22.38 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>11 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>354 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>63 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>425 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>875 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>8341 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>20.59 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>12 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>258 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>41 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>281 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>606 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>7049 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>16.83 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>13 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>109 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>26 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>166 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>436 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>5458 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>13.5 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>14 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>88 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>31 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>126 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>260 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4853 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>10.43 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>15 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>37 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>28 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>73 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>168 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4341 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>7.07 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>16 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>42 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>13 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>32 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>3 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>79 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>100 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>3813 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>7.05 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>17 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>584 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>891 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>603 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>173 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>369 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>642 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>25287 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>12.9 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>18 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>401 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>1560 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>403 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>90 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>514 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>386 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>23781 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>14.11 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>19 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>109 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>1095 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>121 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>39 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>385 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>95 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>11644 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>15.84 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>20 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>48 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>1932 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>107 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>37 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>222 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>52 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>10576 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>22.68 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>21 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>20 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>2031 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>54 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>35 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>362 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>30 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>8888 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>28.49 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>22 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>30 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>2531 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>28 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>24 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>337 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>19 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>8438 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>35.19 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>23 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>22 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>2263 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>21 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>24 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>429 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>7149 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>38.68 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Re: Pandemic H1N1 Week 23

> During week 23 (June 7-13, 2009), influenza activity decreased in the United States
can't be much. No big change from last week.

stable.
wandering sidewards on the peak-line ?
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/images/image231.gif

this week:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

last week:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/weekly22.htm


Number of jurisdictions reporting regional or widespread activity is up from 17 to 18
region 1 is down from "elevated" to "normal" for ILI

pneumonia+influenza deaths are up from last week:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/images/picurve23.gif

number of new ILI-visits is stable since 5 weeks:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/images/image232.gif

number of newly hospitalized children 0-4Y is down since 4 weeks:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/NVSN23.htm

hospitalization by age (cumulative)
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/EIP23.htm


-------edit-------
they should distribute the "A,subtyping not performed cases to the other categories
of A, according to their frequency.
That would make the graph more informative and easier to grasp.
And the "unable to subtype" cases should also be split to the most likely
categories, so most to multinameflu in this case.
 
Re: Pandemic H1N1 Week 23

The P&I mortality (the proportion of overall deaths caused by pneumonia and influenza) has actually reached the "epidemic threshold" for this time of year.

The P&I graph makes sense to me. The way the CDC discusses the Outpatient Illness Surveillance results confuses me. They report that 1.8% of patient visits in their surveillance network were for influenza-like illness (ILI), but say that this "is below the national baseline of 2.4%." However, the baseline refers to the entire year and does not vary seasonally. The current 1.8% may be below that "baseline," but ILI numbers over the last several weeks are strikingly higher compared to the corresponding weeks of the previous two seasons. The CDC's baseline value is thus easy to misinterpret; before I looked at the report tonight, I thought that it referred to a seasonal baseline, and I found the numbers strange.

If I'm misunderstanding any of this, someone please correct me. :)
 
Re: Pandemic H1N1 Week 23

could be "data management" , presenting the data in a way how
theyd like to spread the message without directly saying
something wrong.

I'm more interested in the trend than the baseline.
And the trend is ... unclear, sidewards.

Up in some regions down in others
 
Re: Pandemic H1N1 Week 23

Newflu goes from the schoolchildren to the other age-groups now:

ili09a.GIF


that may explain the recent increase in deaths and hospitalizations
despite slightly fewer ILI in total
 
Re: Pandemic H1N1 Week 23

looks "stable".
wandering sidewards on the peak-line ?
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/images/image231.gif

this week:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

last week:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/weekly22.htm


Number of jurisdictions reporting regional or widespread activity is up from 17 to 18
region 1 is down from "elevated" to "normal" for ILI

pneumonia+influenza deaths are up from last week:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/images/picurve23.gif

number of ILI-visits is stable since 5 weeks:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/images/image232.gif

number of hospitalized children 0-4Y is stable since 4 weeks:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2008-2009/NVSN23.htm


ILI for the 10 US-CDC-regions
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg1.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg2.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg3.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg4.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg5.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg6.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg7.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg8.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg9.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/senreg10.htm

Northern regions have more flu. Also Canada.
In Southern US-states and Mexico there is not much
flu since weeks
 
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