AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
(this is a good article - promote prepping and is realistic)
http://www.tuftsdaily.com/media/storage/paper856/news/2006/10/02/Viewpoints/Pandemic.Flu.Soon.The.Odds.Seem.To.Worsen-2318956.shtml?norewrite200610020635&sourcedomain=www.tuftsdaily.com
David Dapice
Posted: 10/2/06
For several years, a dangerous flu virus called H5N1 has been circulating in birds. Less lethal versions of it have been around much longer, but this particular type is deadly to chickens and can infect mammals such as cats, pigs, dogs and people. The deadly virus has become widespread in many countries, though not yet in North America.
The virus is unstable and has been changing in a way that might make it more transmissible between people. Already, there have been a growing number of cases and several "clusters" suggesting inefficient human-to-human transmission. The question is if H5N1 will mutate to easily spread among people.
Many experts believe that the virus will "go pandemic," and events in Asia raise the possibility that it will be sooner rather than later.
If it does start to spread easily, it will not be easy to stop. People can be infected and shed the virus for a few days before symptoms appear. Unless air travel was halted, disease models show all major air hubs in the United States would be infected in four days.
Most models estimate about 100 million getting sick in the United States, many of whom would need hospitalization. There are fewer than 1 million hospital beds in the United States, so severe pressure on healthcare facilities would be likely.
It is uncertain how many of those infected would die. Only about 3 percent of those who got sick in the United States in the 1918 flu pandemic died, but this year, more than half of those catching avian flu have died. The avian flu has shown no sign of becoming less deadly.
If the fatality rate for those infected were 10 percent, 10 million would die in the United States - and it would be deadliest for teens and young adults, not older people.
What does this mean for Tufts students? The period of maximum danger is during the flu season, roughly from October to April. If a pandemic were to occur, the best way to slow it down would be to "shelter in place" - stay home.
However, home would probably not mean Tufts. Tufts would find it very hard to keep thousands of students in dorms healthy and separated from each other.
Food supplies might be interrupted, and Dining Services now has only a limited emergency supply of food, though they could extend this in an emergency.
But where could students go to? How many of their parents have a 30-day supply of food stored, as Governor Romney suggested families should put aside this year? How many have a three-month supply as some emergency workers are now being told to provide for themselves and their families?
How many know about frequent hand washing, social distancing, N-95 masks and other tricks to reduce the spread of the flu? (In a normal year, about 10 percent of people get the seasonal flu.) What would international students do if airline flights were cancelled? What would students whose parents live in major cities do if food supply shipments broke down?
One Boston-area college sent a letter on Aug. 23 to all incoming students saying that it might be necessary to close the university in a pandemic emergency. It instructs the students to have a realistic place to go to for shelter, a way to get there, a designated person with whom to travel (if by car), and to set aside provisions for food and water.
Every student has to certify that these preparations are in place and give a contact phone number so that they can be warned by the college in the event of an emergency.
It is very difficult to plan for something that is so uncertain. We do not know if a pandemic will occur this flu season or even in the next few years. However, on Sept. 6 in New York, Dr. David Nabarro, the UN senior coordinator for avian flu, said that there will be a pandemic and that we now have only "God-given time" to prepare for it.
He also said that officially reported H5N1 cases and deaths were likely significantly under-reported. He said that, while we were now officially at Level 3 on the pandemic warning scale (1= no worries; 6 = run for the cellar), levels 4, 5 and 6 might come very quickly.
Recent World Health Organization warnings say that H5N1 is mutating, making vaccine production harder and raising fears of resistance to current medicines used to control it.
The other uncertainty is how bad it will be. Part of "bad" is how many will be infected and what percentage of those infected would die. Part of "bad" is what the impact will be on our society and economy.
Would power and other utilities continue to function? Would healthcare workers report for work? Would food and fuel deliveries keep being made? It is very difficult to predict just how difficult life would become or for how long.
The other point is that medicines and vaccines for this flu are in short supply. In the United States, there is enough Tamiflu (the best and nearly only promising medicine for H5N1 flu) for less than 5 percent of the population.
Vaccines are being tested, but some are difficult to produce; some have low or slow antibody responses, and others have dangerous adjuvants (chemical boosters to help the immune response) that can cause auto-immune problems.
In any case, existing vaccines take half a year to produce. If pandemic flu holds off for a year or two, we should have more vaccine knowledge and production capacity and higher levels of Tamiflu stocks. We could also use the time to stockpile other medicines for secondary diseases, which are likely.
So what should Tufts do? We have a university-wide committee working seriously on the issue, but bad to worst cases of pandemic flu would be far beyond the capacity of any institution to manage. We can hold meetings to educate ourselves and to think about the wider implications. The Institute for Global Leadership and Physicians for Human Rights will address this on Nov. 3 in a campus-wide meeting.
In the meantime, students, faculty and staff can and should act themselves. Students could talk with their parents about storing food and water. If you live off-campus, do you plan to stay in your apartment or go elsewhere? If you have medical issues, are there extra medicines? The main thing is to educate yourself and prepare.
Maybe nothing will happen. Maybe the s-- will hit the fan, even this academic year. A little insurance never hurt. Go to www.pandemicflu.gov or www.fluwikie2.com, and you will find lots of information. Don't waste the time that we have.
David Dapice is an associate professor of economics at Tufts University.
http://www.tuftsdaily.com/media/storage/paper856/news/2006/10/02/Viewpoints/Pandemic.Flu.Soon.The.Odds.Seem.To.Worsen-2318956.shtml?norewrite200610020635&sourcedomain=www.tuftsdaily.com
David Dapice
Posted: 10/2/06
For several years, a dangerous flu virus called H5N1 has been circulating in birds. Less lethal versions of it have been around much longer, but this particular type is deadly to chickens and can infect mammals such as cats, pigs, dogs and people. The deadly virus has become widespread in many countries, though not yet in North America.
The virus is unstable and has been changing in a way that might make it more transmissible between people. Already, there have been a growing number of cases and several "clusters" suggesting inefficient human-to-human transmission. The question is if H5N1 will mutate to easily spread among people.
Many experts believe that the virus will "go pandemic," and events in Asia raise the possibility that it will be sooner rather than later.
If it does start to spread easily, it will not be easy to stop. People can be infected and shed the virus for a few days before symptoms appear. Unless air travel was halted, disease models show all major air hubs in the United States would be infected in four days.
Most models estimate about 100 million getting sick in the United States, many of whom would need hospitalization. There are fewer than 1 million hospital beds in the United States, so severe pressure on healthcare facilities would be likely.
It is uncertain how many of those infected would die. Only about 3 percent of those who got sick in the United States in the 1918 flu pandemic died, but this year, more than half of those catching avian flu have died. The avian flu has shown no sign of becoming less deadly.
If the fatality rate for those infected were 10 percent, 10 million would die in the United States - and it would be deadliest for teens and young adults, not older people.
What does this mean for Tufts students? The period of maximum danger is during the flu season, roughly from October to April. If a pandemic were to occur, the best way to slow it down would be to "shelter in place" - stay home.
However, home would probably not mean Tufts. Tufts would find it very hard to keep thousands of students in dorms healthy and separated from each other.
Food supplies might be interrupted, and Dining Services now has only a limited emergency supply of food, though they could extend this in an emergency.
But where could students go to? How many of their parents have a 30-day supply of food stored, as Governor Romney suggested families should put aside this year? How many have a three-month supply as some emergency workers are now being told to provide for themselves and their families?
How many know about frequent hand washing, social distancing, N-95 masks and other tricks to reduce the spread of the flu? (In a normal year, about 10 percent of people get the seasonal flu.) What would international students do if airline flights were cancelled? What would students whose parents live in major cities do if food supply shipments broke down?
One Boston-area college sent a letter on Aug. 23 to all incoming students saying that it might be necessary to close the university in a pandemic emergency. It instructs the students to have a realistic place to go to for shelter, a way to get there, a designated person with whom to travel (if by car), and to set aside provisions for food and water.
Every student has to certify that these preparations are in place and give a contact phone number so that they can be warned by the college in the event of an emergency.
It is very difficult to plan for something that is so uncertain. We do not know if a pandemic will occur this flu season or even in the next few years. However, on Sept. 6 in New York, Dr. David Nabarro, the UN senior coordinator for avian flu, said that there will be a pandemic and that we now have only "God-given time" to prepare for it.
He also said that officially reported H5N1 cases and deaths were likely significantly under-reported. He said that, while we were now officially at Level 3 on the pandemic warning scale (1= no worries; 6 = run for the cellar), levels 4, 5 and 6 might come very quickly.
Recent World Health Organization warnings say that H5N1 is mutating, making vaccine production harder and raising fears of resistance to current medicines used to control it.
The other uncertainty is how bad it will be. Part of "bad" is how many will be infected and what percentage of those infected would die. Part of "bad" is what the impact will be on our society and economy.
Would power and other utilities continue to function? Would healthcare workers report for work? Would food and fuel deliveries keep being made? It is very difficult to predict just how difficult life would become or for how long.
The other point is that medicines and vaccines for this flu are in short supply. In the United States, there is enough Tamiflu (the best and nearly only promising medicine for H5N1 flu) for less than 5 percent of the population.
Vaccines are being tested, but some are difficult to produce; some have low or slow antibody responses, and others have dangerous adjuvants (chemical boosters to help the immune response) that can cause auto-immune problems.
In any case, existing vaccines take half a year to produce. If pandemic flu holds off for a year or two, we should have more vaccine knowledge and production capacity and higher levels of Tamiflu stocks. We could also use the time to stockpile other medicines for secondary diseases, which are likely.
So what should Tufts do? We have a university-wide committee working seriously on the issue, but bad to worst cases of pandemic flu would be far beyond the capacity of any institution to manage. We can hold meetings to educate ourselves and to think about the wider implications. The Institute for Global Leadership and Physicians for Human Rights will address this on Nov. 3 in a campus-wide meeting.
In the meantime, students, faculty and staff can and should act themselves. Students could talk with their parents about storing food and water. If you live off-campus, do you plan to stay in your apartment or go elsewhere? If you have medical issues, are there extra medicines? The main thing is to educate yourself and prepare.
Maybe nothing will happen. Maybe the s-- will hit the fan, even this academic year. A little insurance never hurt. Go to www.pandemicflu.gov or www.fluwikie2.com, and you will find lots of information. Don't waste the time that we have.
David Dapice is an associate professor of economics at Tufts University.