Chikungunya: Potential Scenarios
Summary:
From the epidemiological reports there was an initial outbreak of cases in February/March 2005. Reports from La Reunion indicate that the virus, which had only infected 6,000 people up until last the week in December 2005, somehow changed from benign to virulent. In January 2006 suspect, not confirmed, cases of Chikungunya started to explode La Reunion. The case numbers reached their peak at 47,000 cases per week in the first week of February 2006. Throughout the entire epidemic less than 1% of the 230,000 cases were confirmed to be Chikungunya.
While the outbreak on La Reunion was unfolding a similar outbreak was also unfolding on the east coast of Madagascar in the port town of Toamasina. Toamasina reported that they had almost no Chikungunya cases, but they had an outbreak of a dengue like disease that began sometime around January 2006. The reason they did not say they had Chikungunya was because none of the tests were positive for Chikungunya. It was reported around mid March that 80-90% of La Reunion could become infected with Chikungunya. Coincidently, the following week Toamasina reported that 80-90% of their 200,000 residents, 160,000 to 180,000, had become infected with the dengue like disease. It is therefore logical to assume that the reason La Reunion said they expected an 80-90% infection rate was due to the fact that the 80-90% infection rate had already been seen in Toamasina, Madagascar. Therefore it is also logical to assume that the virus in Madagascar and the virus in La Reunion are the same virus.
Meanwhile in India, a Chikungunya outbreak was also reported to have begun in January 2006 in Andrha Pradesh. By the end of March the outbreak that began in Andrha Pradesh in January had now spread to Maharasthra, Orissa and Karnataka and there were reports of over 100,000 people infected in just Kurnool, Andrha Pradesh. Currently it is unknown how many cases have occurred in India.
Recently Malaysia has reported cases in at least one village and there are confirmed cases in Europe that appear to be imported from the French Indian islands. There have however been reports of non imported cases occurring in Europe, most notably a French Nurse.
It has just been reported from the island of La Reunion by Pierre Leyral that Chikungunya has been found in birds and mammals. They are unsure as to what extent but they are said that it has been found in other animals.
From all the case numbers that we have available it appears that there are somewhere in the range of 500,000 to 700,000 cases of Chikungunya that have occurred across 3 continents in the past 3 months.
Regular Chikungunya
It is very unlikely, almost a 0% chance, that this is the same virus that has always existed. Otherwise we would have seen outbreaks on this scale previous to this date.
Among other things, this would not explain why tests for Chikungunya return negative.
Transformed Chikungunya
It is possible that Chikungunya has undergone some transformation which has made it more transmissible between humans; ergo it has become a human-to-human transmissible virus. This might explain the events that we have seen on La Reunion, Madagascar and India.
This would explain why tests for Chikungunya return negative.
However, there are two very big issues that must be resolved before this can be said to be the case.
First off, how did the virus erupt simultaneously in Madagascar, La Reunion and India. From all accounts it seems that Madagascar had the outbreak before La Reunion, but if Madagascar was the epicenter, then how did India erupt with thousands of cases in January at the same time as Madagascar? This is a big question mark that must be resolved.
Second, from the recent report from La Reunion it appears that Chikungunya can infect many different species including birds and mammals. This would be quite a mutation to Chikungunya to make, basically becoming a panzoic virus overnight. Furthermore if this is the case, then does the same hold true for Madagascar, India and Malaysia.
While this is a possibility it has some major problems.
Chikungunya/H5N1 or other flu virus Recombinant
It is possible that Chikungunya has undergone some recombination with H5N1 or another flu virus which has made it more transmissible between humans; ergo it has become a human-to-human transmissible virus. This better explains the events that we have seen on La Reunion, Madagascar and India.
The data, from 1918, shows that a pandemic erupted in multiple places at the same time. This very nicely explains what we are seeing in Madagascar, La Reunion, India and Malaysia.
This would also explain why tests for Chikungunya return negative.
How would this have happened?
It appears that there were recorded Chikungunya outbreaks in March of 2005 in and around La Reunion. Most likely this would put Chikungunya in Madagascar as well. So we would have had the presence of the virus in and around La Reunion. It is unknown if these same conditions would have existed in India.
Most likely, during the fall H5N1 would have been made its way to Madagascar and surrounding islands via Migratory Birds. Once the migratory birds landed on these islands then the birds could have become co-infected with Chikungunya via a mosquito and recombination of H5N1 and Chikugunya could have occurred. This recombination event could really occur through any means, but the important aspect is that the conditions for this type of recombination would have been existed during the fall bird migrations.
This type of scenario would also fit the epidemic curve that has been recorded on La Reunion during the past 3 months, as that same curve also fits that of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.
The problem with this scenario is India. How did India erupt at the same time as La Reunion and Madagascar.
Chikungunya is H5N1
It is also possible that Chikungunya is just a cover story for a transformed strain of H5N1.
This type of scenario fits the epidemic curve that has been recorded on La Reunion during the past 3 months, as that same curve also fits that of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. Furthermore this would explain why 99% of the cases are suspect and unconfirmed for Chikungunya. In addition to that it would also explain why the virus infects birds and mammals and why it has appeared in India and French Indian Ocean at the same time.
This scenario however is entirely speculative.
Most likely the truth lies somewhere on this page.
Summary:
From the epidemiological reports there was an initial outbreak of cases in February/March 2005. Reports from La Reunion indicate that the virus, which had only infected 6,000 people up until last the week in December 2005, somehow changed from benign to virulent. In January 2006 suspect, not confirmed, cases of Chikungunya started to explode La Reunion. The case numbers reached their peak at 47,000 cases per week in the first week of February 2006. Throughout the entire epidemic less than 1% of the 230,000 cases were confirmed to be Chikungunya.
While the outbreak on La Reunion was unfolding a similar outbreak was also unfolding on the east coast of Madagascar in the port town of Toamasina. Toamasina reported that they had almost no Chikungunya cases, but they had an outbreak of a dengue like disease that began sometime around January 2006. The reason they did not say they had Chikungunya was because none of the tests were positive for Chikungunya. It was reported around mid March that 80-90% of La Reunion could become infected with Chikungunya. Coincidently, the following week Toamasina reported that 80-90% of their 200,000 residents, 160,000 to 180,000, had become infected with the dengue like disease. It is therefore logical to assume that the reason La Reunion said they expected an 80-90% infection rate was due to the fact that the 80-90% infection rate had already been seen in Toamasina, Madagascar. Therefore it is also logical to assume that the virus in Madagascar and the virus in La Reunion are the same virus.
Meanwhile in India, a Chikungunya outbreak was also reported to have begun in January 2006 in Andrha Pradesh. By the end of March the outbreak that began in Andrha Pradesh in January had now spread to Maharasthra, Orissa and Karnataka and there were reports of over 100,000 people infected in just Kurnool, Andrha Pradesh. Currently it is unknown how many cases have occurred in India.
Recently Malaysia has reported cases in at least one village and there are confirmed cases in Europe that appear to be imported from the French Indian islands. There have however been reports of non imported cases occurring in Europe, most notably a French Nurse.
It has just been reported from the island of La Reunion by Pierre Leyral that Chikungunya has been found in birds and mammals. They are unsure as to what extent but they are said that it has been found in other animals.
From all the case numbers that we have available it appears that there are somewhere in the range of 500,000 to 700,000 cases of Chikungunya that have occurred across 3 continents in the past 3 months.
Regular Chikungunya
It is very unlikely, almost a 0% chance, that this is the same virus that has always existed. Otherwise we would have seen outbreaks on this scale previous to this date.
Among other things, this would not explain why tests for Chikungunya return negative.
Transformed Chikungunya
It is possible that Chikungunya has undergone some transformation which has made it more transmissible between humans; ergo it has become a human-to-human transmissible virus. This might explain the events that we have seen on La Reunion, Madagascar and India.
This would explain why tests for Chikungunya return negative.
However, there are two very big issues that must be resolved before this can be said to be the case.
First off, how did the virus erupt simultaneously in Madagascar, La Reunion and India. From all accounts it seems that Madagascar had the outbreak before La Reunion, but if Madagascar was the epicenter, then how did India erupt with thousands of cases in January at the same time as Madagascar? This is a big question mark that must be resolved.
Second, from the recent report from La Reunion it appears that Chikungunya can infect many different species including birds and mammals. This would be quite a mutation to Chikungunya to make, basically becoming a panzoic virus overnight. Furthermore if this is the case, then does the same hold true for Madagascar, India and Malaysia.
While this is a possibility it has some major problems.
Chikungunya/H5N1 or other flu virus Recombinant
It is possible that Chikungunya has undergone some recombination with H5N1 or another flu virus which has made it more transmissible between humans; ergo it has become a human-to-human transmissible virus. This better explains the events that we have seen on La Reunion, Madagascar and India.
The data, from 1918, shows that a pandemic erupted in multiple places at the same time. This very nicely explains what we are seeing in Madagascar, La Reunion, India and Malaysia.
This would also explain why tests for Chikungunya return negative.
How would this have happened?
It appears that there were recorded Chikungunya outbreaks in March of 2005 in and around La Reunion. Most likely this would put Chikungunya in Madagascar as well. So we would have had the presence of the virus in and around La Reunion. It is unknown if these same conditions would have existed in India.
Most likely, during the fall H5N1 would have been made its way to Madagascar and surrounding islands via Migratory Birds. Once the migratory birds landed on these islands then the birds could have become co-infected with Chikungunya via a mosquito and recombination of H5N1 and Chikugunya could have occurred. This recombination event could really occur through any means, but the important aspect is that the conditions for this type of recombination would have been existed during the fall bird migrations.
This type of scenario would also fit the epidemic curve that has been recorded on La Reunion during the past 3 months, as that same curve also fits that of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.
The problem with this scenario is India. How did India erupt at the same time as La Reunion and Madagascar.
Chikungunya is H5N1
It is also possible that Chikungunya is just a cover story for a transformed strain of H5N1.
This type of scenario fits the epidemic curve that has been recorded on La Reunion during the past 3 months, as that same curve also fits that of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. Furthermore this would explain why 99% of the cases are suspect and unconfirmed for Chikungunya. In addition to that it would also explain why the virus infects birds and mammals and why it has appeared in India and French Indian Ocean at the same time.
This scenario however is entirely speculative.
Most likely the truth lies somewhere on this page.
Last edited:
