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But ProMED SOP"Possibly, the current event is due to the unstable
situation along the borders with Afghanistan, allowing introduction
of infected animals and their products, contaminated feed, etc."
Nope. Bad guess. NOT EVEN CLOSE.
The above epidemiology was conspicuously absent from the ProMED commentary (which included long excerpts from the final report).From final report
Epidemiology
Epidemiological comments
The first outbreak of highly pathogenic notifiable avian influenza (HPNAI) was reported in February 2007 while the last one was observed on 3 March 2008. The event involved a total of 225,238 commercial poultry of various categories. Stamping out policy was adopted. All poultry on the index
farms were culled and disinfection operations were completed as per OIE guidelines. All culling and disinfection operations in the last reported outbreak were completed on 4 March 2008. All sero-surveillance results obtained within a 10-km-radius zone around the outbreak were negative.
Monitoring and sero-surveillance will continue.
Therefore, since no further outbreaks of HPNAI have been observed in the country since 3 March 2008; Pakistan declares itself free of HPNAI with effect from 4 June 2008.
Source of the outbreak(s) or origin of infection • Contact with wild species
http://www.oie.int/wahid-prod/reports/en_fup_0000007125_20080617_121359.pdf
Trying to pin 4000 (out of 6000) poultry deaths in a couple of days on H5N9 seems to be a stretch.Swabi Poultry Association says H5N9 mistaken for H5N1
Staff Report
SWABI: Swabi Poultry Association (SPA) on Wednesday staged a protest demonstration against District Livestock and Dairy Development Department and National Research Institute (NRI), Islamabad, for what they called ‘mistaking an H5N9 strain for H5N1’ that caused bird flu. The authorities had detected H5N1 strain at a poultry farm in Swabi three days ago and ordered immediate closure of the farm and culling of 2,000 birds. The association’s office-bearers said that they had conducted their own test at the Poultry Research Institute (PRI), Rawalpindi, where the strain was identified as H5N9. The association’s president, Zabiullah, demanded that the government constitute an impartial committee that should take samples for fresh tests. He warned that if the government failed to listen to their demand till June 30, they would hold a hunger strike camp in front of the NWFP Assembly.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008\06\26\story_26-6-2008_pg7_53
Immediate notification report
Source of the outbreak(s) or origin of infection
? Contact with wild species
http://www.oie.int/wahid-prod/reports/en_imm_0000007146_20080626_142343.pdf