Overall flu deaths down during H1N1 pandemic

[tetano]

Although experts are not sure to what degree, seasonal flu cases and deaths dropped in Maryland and nationwide this year, during the height of the novel H1N1 pandemic.

While flu cases are not perfectly tracked, epidemiologists believe the decreases were caused by increased health campaigning and vaccination rates, a weaker seasonal flu strain, and other causes.

Epidemiologists all over the world think next flu season's primary strain will mutate around H1N1, or swine flu. Although officials and health professionals do not know how strong the 2010-2011 flu season will be, they are encouraging vaccination.

"Overall flu deaths are down this year because H1N1 flu crowded seasonal flu out," said Jeff Dimond, a health communications specialist for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "But this is a drastic oversimplification."


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-flu-h1n1-deaths-20100424,0,4788741.story?page=1

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Overall flu deaths down during H1N1 pandemic

"Drastic oversimplification". I would be interested to see what data Mr Dimond is comparing. The article goes on to say that 36,000 Americans die each year, so that's 600-1000 from Maryland, this year there was only 45. Comparing confirmed flu deaths with estimates to show that H1N1 was somehow beneficial.

Here's some apples with apples comparisons:

Total # of Pneumonia and Influenza fatalities reported from Baltimore in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from week 40 (October) to Week 15 (April).

2007/08: 419
2008/09: 496
2009/10: 423
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_ss/ss_cvol.html

In other words 09-10 may not have been catastrophic in terms of fatalities, but it is around the average. There are certainly not several hundred less deaths as implied in this article.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Overall flu deaths down during H1N1 pandemic

what about total deaths ?

oldflu kills from other causes, while newflu won't

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Overall flu deaths down during H1N1 pandemic

Year (weeks 40-15)/ Total Deaths/ Aged 65+/ % over 65/ % P&I

2007-8: 4,551/ 2,606/ 57.26%/ 9.21%
2008-9: 4,933/ 2,896/ 58.71%/ 10.1% (includes a week 53)
2009-10: 4,335/ 2,436/ 56.19%/ 9.76%

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_ss/ss_cvol.html
any math or transcription errors are my own.

The population of Baltimore has been around 637,500 for the past 3 years.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Overall flu deaths down during H1N1 pandemic

Adding to the dataset;

Year/ Total deaths/ 65+ (and %)/ P&I (and %)

2006-7: 4,810/ 2714 (56.42%)/ 391 (8.13%)
2005-6: 4,527/ 2606 (57.57%)/ 400 (8.84%)

Comparing the past 5 years for Baltimore, 2009-10 has the least number of all cause deaths, but P&I fatalities are the second highest. Fatalities in the 65+ category are at a 5 year low.