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Osterholm warns about pandemic

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

>1% and <99% is "I do not know".

I wish there was a way to predict, in a definitive way, the probability of a pandemic, but there is not.

Any number is suspect.

This is what I do know 100%:

1) There will be a viral flu type pandemic,
2) H5N1 has a possibility to be that flu pandemic,
3) Many esteemed experts from around the world have been concerned since 2003 that this virus will be the next pandemic virus,
4) The U.S. government has recommended that all citizens obtain a supply of food and water for their homes,
5) The U.S. government has issued pandemic plans and updates,
6) The U.S. government has conducted a series of conferences around the country for a year to alert business and citizens about the potential pandemic,
7) H5N1 is spreading worldwide via wild birds and importation of infected birds,
8) There have been cases of limited H2H transmission,
9) H5N1 is endemic in the environment in many countries in South East Asia,
10) The case fatality rate remains high for cases that are documented.

Each person must evaluate the above and determine for themselves what the risk factor is for H5N1 to become the next pandemic.

I personally think it is possible and that everyone should obtain at least 8 weeks of essential supplies in their homes. This is reasonable.
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

>1% and <99% is "I do not know".

you can always say : "I do not know". But that's not very informative.
We could stop communication altogether.

>I wish there was a way to predict, in a definitive way, the probability
>of a pandemic, but there is not.

not to predict, but to give a subjective estimate. This is just a tool to
communicate your feelings. Don't expect too much from it.

>Any number is suspect.

but some are suspecter ;-)

>This is what I do know 100%:
>
>1) There will be a viral flu type pandemic,

not 100%

>2) H5N1 has a possibility to be that flu pandemic,
>3) Many esteemed experts from around the world have been
> concerned since 2003 that this virus will be the next pandemic virus,
>4) The U.S. government has recommended that all citizens
> obtain a supply of food and water for their homes,

not all citizens AFAIK, but I'm not sure.
However other countries haven't done this. Why do you think the
US-government is more credible than the governments of other
countries with similar conditions ?

>5) The U.S. government has issued pandemic plans and updates,
>6) The U.S. government has conducted a series of conferences
> around the country for a year to alert business and citizens
> about the potential pandemic,
>7) H5N1 is spreading worldwide via wild birds and importation of
> infected birds,

probably, but not 100&

>8) There have been cases of limited H2H transmission,

some people still doubt this

>9) H5N1 is endemic in the environment in many countries in South East Asia,

however you define this

>10) The case fatality rate remains high for cases that are documented.

you only listed negatives but left out all positives.

>Each person must evaluate the above and determine for themselves
>what the risk factor is for H5N1 to become the next pandemic.

they can't. They are no experts. Others are much more qualified
to estimate this and are much better informed.
I'm not comfortable that all the laymen make their own estimates
based on lists like your one above.

>I personally think it is possible and that everyone should
>obtain at least 8 weeks of essential supplies in their homes.
>This is reasonable.

there is a contradiction. When you have no clue about the probability
of a pandemic -as suggested with "I don't know"- then you can't
know whether that recommendation is reasonable.
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Snowy, what I meant is, that when you know afterwards that there was a pandemic,
then you can easily argue that we had been underprepared.
The same in the opposite direction with being overprepared for a non-pandemic as in 1976.

But how can we estimate now the likelyhood and possible impact of a pandemic ?
That's the decisive question when we want to decide how much money to spend
on preparations. You can still make mistakes with how to preparate and where
to set the priorities, as you pointed out.

Only when we estimate this probability poorly by overlooking some facts
and make wrong decisions based on that estimate, then we can be
reasonably accused later.
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

I said "I personally think it is possible", therefore, based on my personal judgement, 8 weeks of essentials in the home that can be used for any emergency situation, is reasonable.

You can not argue with my personal opinion. It is subjective and my evaluation of the situation.

I know that I am only a female and not capable of understanding probabilities, but I think it is a high probability that you have too much time on your hands. :D :D :D

:yinyang:
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

I don't think, the time is wasted. This is important.

You seem to have more clear estimates than you want to admit then.
Please give your number to communicate your level of
prepping necessity in a better way to us.
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

and BTW., females are just often thinking differently about some things.
More of a social, cultural thing than being less capable.
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

now, can we please make a thread where everyone can give his/her
subjective probability estimate of a pandemic in the next 5 years ?
The thread should be open for correcting/editing the estimate
at any time. Or can I just do a poll without expiration date ?
What's the appropriate sub-forum ?
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

gsgs said:
now, can we please make a thread where everyone can give his/her
subjective probability estimate of a pandemic in the next 5 years ?
The thread should be open for correcting/editing the estimate
at any time. Or can I just do a poll without expiration date ?
What's the appropriate sub-forum ?
Click to expand...

I will set it up and link it here.


Done:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=31582#post31582
 
Last edited:
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Sorry, I just don't see the point.

What difference does a percentage make? If I am alive and well, I plan on eating. How can I possibly over prepare?
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Florida1, thanks. Can you delete H5N1, so any flu-pandemic will count ?
(i.e. also with reassorted H5N1).
I wished the experts would vote here too.
They could remain anonymous but we would have to verify
that they are experts.

granny, overpreparing is, when you spend too much money,
relocate,divorce,...while the threat is small, isn't worth it.
E.g. most people think that getting a vaccine-shot in 1976
against swine flu was over-prepping
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

gsgs - It has to stay H5N1 because the seasonal flu that everyone gets is usually widespread worldwide. Then, the only answer available for the poll would be 100%.
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

ask WHO etc.
It's very uncommon to count seasonal flu as pandemic.
There were 3 (flu-)pandemics last century:1918,1957,1968.

Look at the title of this thread, Osterholm won't
warn about seasonal flu
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Yes - that is my point. We are talking only about H5N1 here. :D

We agree on something!!! :eek:
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

no, H5N1 might reassort with (e.g.) H3N2 to form a pandemic of H5N2 or H3N1 or H5N1 or H3N2.
Or H7N7 goes pandemic. Or a H1N1 pandemic reoccurs.

Somehow I feel that you are trying to ridicule the thing.

Somehow I feel that still no one here agrees that the most
important thing ATM is to get the experts give us their estimates.
Same in other forums.

People don't want it to be elaborated, how big the threat is.
Weird.

People in forums don't become meditative when experts and normal
people have completely different estimates than they have.
Weird.

Weird and disappointing. And unlogical. And prevalent, even among
experts.
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Florida1 said:
gsgs - It has to stay H5N1 because the seasonal flu that everyone gets is usually widespread worldwide. Then, the only answer available for the poll would be 100%.
Click to expand...

So if "IT" reasorts with a strain of H7 into H7N1 it doesn't count?
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Sonny said:
So if "IT" reasorts with a strain of H7 into H7N1 it doesn't count?
Click to expand...

This is a possibility, but without knowing if this will happen, is it not possible to call it H5N1, now, for discussion and poll purposes?
 
Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

I think some people need to take a break.

Go for a walk.

Have a nice meal.

Read a book.

It is mentally unhealthy to "do bird flu" 24/7.

Come back tomorrow.

The fight over semantics will seem trivial.

:yinyang:
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