tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Open Forum Infect Dis
. 2022 Jul 25;9(8)
fac354.
doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofac354. eCollection 2022 Aug.
Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
Allison Codi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Damon Luk[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David Braun[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Juan Cambeiro[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Tamay Besiroglu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Eva Chen[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Paolo Bocchini[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Thomas McAndrew[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.
Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019; forecasting; human judgment.
. 2022 Jul 25;9(8)
fac354.doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofac354. eCollection 2022 Aug.
Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
Allison Codi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Damon Luk[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David Braun[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Juan Cambeiro[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Tamay Besiroglu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Eva Chen[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Paolo Bocchini[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Thomas McAndrew[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35937647
- PMCID: PMC9348614
- DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofac354
Abstract
Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.
Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019; forecasting; human judgment.