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Source: https://www.cp24.com/news/covid-19-...ary-as-variant-takes-hold-modelling-1.5305325
COVID-19 case counts will begin increasing again in late February as variant takes hold: modelling
Aggressive vaccination and maintaining a stay-at-home order would help Ontario avoid a third wave and another lockdown, health experts
Chris Fox, Web Content Writer, CP24
Published Thursday, February 11, 2021 3:03PM EST
Last Updated Friday, February 12, 2021 7:44AM EST
COVID-19 case counts will likely begin increasing again in late February as the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant takes hold in the community with intensive care admissions following about two weeks later, new modelling suggests.
The Ford government has announced that it will gradually lift the stay-at-home order across Ontario in the coming weeks and allow businesses in many parts of the province to reopen amid case counts that have now been on the decline for weeks.
But new projections prepared by the province’s science table warn that cases could rise “dramatically” if public health restrictions are lifted, potentially leading to a third wave of the pandemic.
The modelling suggests that with no restrictions in place Ontario could see 5,000 to 6,000 cases a day by the end of March in “the most likely scenario” and nearly 18,000 cases a day by the end of March in the worst case scenario.
The modelling says that in order to account for the B.1.1.7 variant, which is believed to be at least 50 per cent more contagious than other strains, the province needs to get its reproductive number down to 0.7.
The problem is that the Ontario’s reproductive number has hovered between 0.8 and 0.9 in recent weeks and has only approached 0.7 once briefly in June.
The modelling says that with a reproductive number of just 0.9 the variant would “trigger exponential growth” once it becomes the dominant strain, potentially overwhelming the healthcare system in the process...
COVID-19 case counts will begin increasing again in late February as variant takes hold: modelling
Aggressive vaccination and maintaining a stay-at-home order would help Ontario avoid a third wave and another lockdown, health experts
Chris Fox, Web Content Writer, CP24
Published Thursday, February 11, 2021 3:03PM EST
Last Updated Friday, February 12, 2021 7:44AM EST
COVID-19 case counts will likely begin increasing again in late February as the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant takes hold in the community with intensive care admissions following about two weeks later, new modelling suggests.
The Ford government has announced that it will gradually lift the stay-at-home order across Ontario in the coming weeks and allow businesses in many parts of the province to reopen amid case counts that have now been on the decline for weeks.
But new projections prepared by the province’s science table warn that cases could rise “dramatically” if public health restrictions are lifted, potentially leading to a third wave of the pandemic.
The modelling suggests that with no restrictions in place Ontario could see 5,000 to 6,000 cases a day by the end of March in “the most likely scenario” and nearly 18,000 cases a day by the end of March in the worst case scenario.
The modelling says that in order to account for the B.1.1.7 variant, which is believed to be at least 50 per cent more contagious than other strains, the province needs to get its reproductive number down to 0.7.
The problem is that the Ontario’s reproductive number has hovered between 0.8 and 0.9 in recent weeks and has only approached 0.7 once briefly in June.
The modelling says that with a reproductive number of just 0.9 the variant would “trigger exponential growth” once it becomes the dominant strain, potentially overwhelming the healthcare system in the process...