• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Omicron - COVID-19 Variant (B.1.1529) a "Variant of Concern" & BA.2 sub-variant, XE

Saw a startling phrase this morning:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.03.21267155v1

High viral loads: what drives fatal cases of COVID-19 in vaccinees? an autopsy study

Klaus Hirschbuehl, Tina Schaller, et al View ORCID

Background: The rate of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinees is becoming an increasingly serious issue. Objective: To determine the causes of death, histological organ alteration, and viral spread in relation to demographic, clinical-pathological, viral variants, and vaccine types.

Results: Autopsies were performed on 16 partially and 13 fully vaccinated individuals. Most patients were elderly and suffered from several relevant comorbidities. Real-time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) identified a significantly increased rate of generalized viral dissemination within the organism in vaccinated cases versus nonvaccinated cases (45% vs. 16%, respectively; P = 0.008). Vaccinated cases also showed high viral loads, reaching Ct values below 10, especially in the upper airways and lungs. This was accompanied by high rates of pulmonal bacterial or mycotic superinfections and the occurrence of immunocompromising factors such as malignancies, immunosuppressive drug intake, or decreased immunoglobulin levels. All these findings were particularly accentuated in
partially vaccinated patients compared to fully vaccinated individuals. A fatal course after vaccination occurred in only 14% of all COVID-19 deceased in Augsburg. Limitations: Restricted number of cases Conclusions: Fatal cases of COVID-19 in vaccinees were rare and often associated with severe comorbidities or other immunosuppressive conditions. Interestingly, we observed striking virus dissemination in our case study, which may indicate a decreased ability to eliminate the virus in patients with an impaired immune system. However, the potential role of antibody-dependent enhancement must also be ruled out in future studies.

If ADE is a factor, Omicron "mild" infections will rip through previously hard-hit areas.
 
It is a startling phrase, however, the study shows that the partially vaccinated people had higher viral loads than the fully vaccinated people, and that a high proportion of the deceased were immunocompromised. Given all that, I don't think they are saying there is any direct evidence of ADE, just something that needs further study.
 
Fauci says early reports encouraging about omicron variant


U.S. health officials said Sunday that while the omicron variant of the coronavirus is rapidly spreading throughout the country, early indications suggest it may be less dangerous than delta, which continues to drive a surge of hospitalizations.

President Joe Biden's chief medial adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN's “State of the Union” that scientists need more information before drawing conclusion's about omicron's severity.

Reports from South Africa, where it emerged and is becoming the dominant strain, suggest that hospitalization rates have not increased alarmingly.

more...

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/n...ly-reports-encouraging-about-omicron-variant/
 
ADE is hard to prove scientifically, I think. With Omicron, we'd need to do antibody tests on the totally unvaccinated to see if they were immune naive to the virus. Then we would compare them to the vaccinated and the recovered. (Again antibody testing should be done on both.)
 
The hospitalizations could be Delta variant or leading admin medical advisors are wrong about Omicron looking "mild". When the president's medical advisor is interviewed on national television, it is pertinent news (even if he is wrong). We have been telling everyone to use at least two sources for their information and use their common sense since the beginning of this pandemic. :)
 
silylene said:
And yet, hospitalization in Gauten SA is up 6x compared to 2.5 weeks ago. So, what gives in this contradiction? (see the chart I posted yesterday in this thread for the real data)
Click to expand...


There is this:



It may be Delta is still a real problem even with all the attention on Omicron?
 
Sharon, I think the rapid COVID hospitalization increase (up 6x) are the result of Omicron infections, not a [unseen ??] wave of Delta. " Now, as many as 90% of the new cases in Gauteng are caused by it, according to Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform." LINK

I am guessing the reduced severity [I still question this 'fact'] could be the result that the vast majority of S. Africa has significant immunity in addition to the youthful age distribution. About 22% are fully vaccinated, and another 29% to 46% are seropositive depending on the location and demographic LINK1 LINK2 and presumably have some level of acquire immune response. So one could expect that a combined total of about 52 - 88% of the S. African population should be able to have at least some level of immune response which could ameliorate disease severity.

The US should have similar levels as S. Africa in the percentage of the population with some level of acquired immune response:
"In this repeated cross-sectional study that included 1 443 519 blood donation specimens from a catchment area representing 74% of the US population, estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence weighted for differences between the study sample and general population increased from 3.5% in July 2020 to 20.2% for infection-induced antibodies and 83.3% for combined infection- and vaccine-induced antibodies in May 2021." LINK

Finally, I want to point out from a US perspective, there remain about 56 million citizens with neither any vaccination nor infection-induced antibodies. Omicron may prove to be quite severe impact on these 56 million people. Other nations also have Covid-naive cohorts which could be at higher severity risk.

I think it is too soon for the popular media-doctors to be publicly commenting on Omicron severity until the data is better understood, even if they sprinkle their opinions with 'maybe' and 'probably'. Frankly, the public does not hear or remember the 'maybes' and 'probablys', and the press headlines ignore these words, and social media misappropriates quotes out of context. If the media-doctors are wrong (again), this only harms the credibility of scientists and science reporting media.
 
In almost 10 days, omicron has almost completely replaced delta. Cases are in a younger age group and reported to be milder. (Still to be confirmed.) Prof. Vardas said about 10-20% of cases are sequenced. (Very expensive.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYZ46_tzD4o
Discussion | Identifying Omicron in COVID-19 tests

3,729 views
Dec 5, 2021


eNCA
1.1M subscribers
Most people who now test for COVID-19 have been found to have the new Omicron variant. That's the discovery made my Lancet Laboratories. Head of Clinical Virology at Lancet Laboratories, Professor Eftyhia Vardas explains #eNCA Courtesy #DStv403
 
they had >80% of confirmed hospital cases in Tshwane , Nov14-27 admitted
for reasons other than COVID.
-------------------------
not delta, since delta is low and declining
 
natural immunity doesn't seem to help much against omicron showed a recent study.
I wonder whether there are lots of asymptomatic cases or cases with low infection,
not enough to show antibodies in blood.
 
You will see varying opinions and data on this site. We do not have a mantra. Real truth seeking requires a debate.
 
gsgs
natural immunity doesn't seem to help much against omicron showed a recent study.
I wonder whether there are lots of asymptomatic cases or cases with low infection,
not enough to show antibodies in blood.
Click to expand...

I think what the data shows is that natural immunity doesn't seem to help much at preventing infection showed a recent study. The data may show that natural immunity *may* help with ameliorating disease severity. Two different outcomes.

Sharon, I agree!! :)
 
Hmmm. It's days since the first sequenced case of Omicron.

https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey/s...082393093?s=20

[url]https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey "[/URL]If it's mild, why are the oxygen demands of Omicron slightly higher than those of Delta? That a significant chunk of those receiving oxygen are children should be lost on no one—this will be the most destructive wave yet."

FF8BzcRVcAQPSF6?format=jpg&name=900x900.jpg
 
silylene said:
Hmmm. It's days since the first sequenced case of Omicron.

https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey/s...082393093?s=20

[url]https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey "[/URL]If it's mild, why are the oxygen demands of Omicron slightly higher than those of Delta? That a significant chunk of those receiving oxygen are children should be lost on no one—this will be the most destructive wave yet."

Click to expand...

Do you have a link for the graph? NoyesJHumphrey does not have a bio listed on his twit account so I can not evaluate his info or comments.
 
So many variables going on here. First, sequencing is supposed to be faster for SGTF samples than it was for Delta. Second, the Rt of omicron could be much higher than Delta resulting in many time more cases, but the risk to each individual case could be lower. Third, we have more immunity to COVID in SA from either vaccine or (sadly, more often) previous infection. All of these variables will chart a different course for Omicron as they each pull the graph in a different direction.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom