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NZ - Fewer flu cases could be 'temporary dip' Warning not to get complacent

Sally Furniss

Well-known member
Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

The Dominion Post
Last updated 05:00 05/08/2009


The number of flu patients visiting Wellington GPs has dipped for the first time since the swine flu pandemic began, but health officials say it is too early to tell whether the outbreak has peaked.

The national general practice sentinel surveillance system shows a general drop in consultation rates for flu in the week to Sunday.

However, not all district health boards followed this trend and rates remain nearly three times higher than the winter flu peak recorded in the past two years.

In the Taranaki, MidCentral, Wairarapa, South Canterbury, Canterbury, Otago and Southland health board regions, there was an increase in GP consultations for flu.

Health Minister Tony Ryall said it was too soon to determine whether this was a temporary dip or the start of a continuing fall.

Figures suggest that in Auckland and Wellington, which were hit hard and early by swine flu, the pandemic could be waning, but this could simply be part of a normal fluctuation, Mr Ryall said.

Swine flu is confirmed to have killed 14 people, another eight people had the virus when they died but it is not yet known if that is what killed them, and the coroner is investigating a further 16 suspected fatal cases.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/2720479/Fewer-flu-cases-temporary-dip
 
Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/2733975/Swine-flu-numbers-slowing-down
New Zealand's swine flu virus appears to have struck a quiet period as official statistics show the number of people visiting their GP tapering off.

The number of confirmed swine flu cases today was unchanged from yesterday, at 2935, the Ministry of Health said.

The number of deaths attributed to swine flu was also unchanged at 14, with the last reported death being that of a man in his 50s in Christchurch in the last week of July.

There were no anecdotal reports of more deaths coming through, the ministry's sentinel GP surveillance sites reported a little less activity and hospitals did not seem to be quite as busy, said deputy director of public health Darren Hunt.

"Generally speaking, over the last week or two we are seeing a bit of a drop off in primary care.

"Obviously we are going to hope that continues but it's a bit early to tell whether that's going to be a temporary lull."

Dr Hunt said it appeared the South Island was having more activity than the North Island, and overall the country appeared to be about two or three weeks behind Victoria in Australia, which had experienced a quieter period as well.

However, the situation was complicated by the fact August was usually the peak for the regular seasonal flu.
 
Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

normal fluctuations ? flu comes in waves. Since decades,centuries
at least
 
Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

Warning not to get complacent as flu numbers fall

Updated at 7:06pm on 11 August 2009

The number of people with swine flu and regular flu in New Zealand continues to fall, but the Government warns the swine virus could re-emerge at any time and good personal hygiene practices must be maintained.

The Health Ministry says there are 41 people in hospital with swine flu or its complications, 15 of whom are in intensive care. That is down from 52 people in hospital, 20 of them in intensive care, this time last week.

Six people are in intensive care in Auckland, with two each in Canterbury and Otago, and one each in Northland, Waikato, Rotorua, Nelson-Marlbourough and Southland.

The number of confirmed deaths from swine flu remains at 14.

Health Minister Tony Ryall says flu cases could rise and fall over months, and covering coughs and sneezes, and staying home when sick remain important.
Canterbury swine flu centres close

Almost all swine flu centres in Canterbury will close on Tuesday, as the number of cases in the region declines.

Though there is still some swine flu in the community, the Canterbury District Health Board says the numbers are not high enough to warrant continuing the service.

All flu centres will close at the end of business on Tuesday except for one in St Asaph Street which will operate with reduced hours until next Tuesday.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/stories/2009/08/11/1245c1aa0cfe
 
Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases 'temporary dip'

normal fluctuations ? flu comes in waves. Since decades,centuries
at least

The following graphic was taken from http://ocw.jhsph.edu/imageLibrary/i...sourceID/43A8E3FE-DE4D-6931-FF16FE69F743668C/ It illustrates excess mortality from 1910-1921 in 35 major American cities. Since we don't have ILI surveillance this may be a good indicator of how the virus propagated. The first, second, and third waves of 1918 are visible. At least for the second and third waves, while there is an overall peak, there are pulses visible. I think I have seen similar patterns in 2009 (an overall peak with pulses of infection) and I intend to expand on this sometime.

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Re: NZ - Fewer flu cases could be 'temporary dip' Warning not to get complacent

Can I ask how long this took ? from beginning until now, how many weeks ?
I think Scotland might have the same thing this winter, am sure the population numbers are similar.
 
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