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NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

appleblossom

Senior Moderator
Flu prompts warning to stock up on food

Published: Sunday, June 21, 2009
By WILLIAM J. KEMBLE
Correspondent

KINGSTON ? People should have a three-week supply of food on hand in the case the current swine flu pandemic worsens, the leader of a town supervisors? group said last week, and he warned that 40 percent of the workforce could be kept away from their jobs this fall if the outbreak lasts that long.


John Valk Jr., the supervisor of the town of Shawangunk and the president of the Ulster County Supervisors Association, said a worsening pandemic of the H1N1 influenza strain means ?our workforce would be slower. Deliveries to stores would slow down, and that is the point of stocking up on 21 days? worth of supplies. ... As things (get) backlogged, you?d have the things you need at the house.?



Greene County Public Health Director Marie Ostoyich has also advised readiness in the event the flu outbreak becomes more serious. She said briefings from state officials have emphasized that residents be prepared for the disruption of both municipal and commercial services.



?They did talk about (how) it won?t be business as usual,? Ostoyich said. ?We don?t know about schools, businesses, whatever there may be ? sort of like when we have a major snowstorm and we?re down to bare-bones basics and people aren?t to be out on the road traveling unless it?s absolutely necessary.




?We urged all the municipalities to come up with their plan,? she added, ?but I don?t think I could, in any way, predict exactly what that?s going to look like when we?re there.?



Dr. Michael Caldwell, the Dutchess County health commissioner, said federal guidelines have varied during previous flu outbreaks, from keeping food supplies for as little as three days to longer periods based on the severity of the problem.



?You need to have a preparedness plan, maybe even more than three days of food, because, if there was a slowdown in travel, you would see a decrease in the ability to move food to your local shopping center and your local grocery store because a lot of those foods come in everyday,? Caldwell said. ?We saw this with SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome, in 2002), and it went on a couple of months, and it was really causing a lot of trouble globally, particularly in the Asian part of the world and in Canada.?



Information being used by local officials in preparing for swine flu problems includes U.S. Department of Health and Human Services data about three influenza pandemics during the 20th century: the 1918-19 outbreak, which caused at least 675,000 U.S. deaths and up to 50 million deaths worldwide; the 1957-58 outbreak, which killed 70,000 in the United States and up to 2 million worldwide; and 1968-69 outbreak, which claimed 34,000 lives in this country and 700,000 around the world.



Valk said his grandmother died in the 1918 flu pandemic and he hopes medical science has advanced far enough to lessen the effects this time around.



?What I?ve read is that it was just like now, where it was, at first, minor and people thought we?d gotten through the flu season, and then it came back with a vengeance after the summer,? Valk said. ?That?s when they lost control. Of course, they didn?t have flu vaccines? or flu treatments at the time.



Valk said even if there are fewer cases than expected in the current pandemic, it still could affect community services and be complicated by other events.

?If we had a snowstorm in the middle of winter and we had four of our highway guys (home sick) out of the 11, how would we get the roads clean?? he said.



Woodstock Supervisor Jeff Moran recently noted that, during the 1918 outbreak, there was a ?lockdown? of the town.

?We stopped the traffic between Woodstock and Kingston, what traffic there was at that time, and closed the road,? he said.



The current flu outbreak ? which was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization earlier this month ? has been confirmed in 74 countries and all 50 states in this country. In the United States, there have been 21,449 cases of swine flu and 87 deaths associated with the disease. New York state has had more than 1,700 confirmed cases, and New York City has had 23 deaths.



Locally, there have been 30 confirmed cases of swine flu in Dutchess County, four in Ulster County, three in Columbia County and one in Greene County. There have been no reported flu deaths in the region during the current outbreak.

http://www.dailyfreeman.com/articles/2009/06/21/news/doc4a3db38b31820056977456.txt
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

?They did talk about (how) it won?t be business as usual,? Ostoyich said. ?We don?t know about schools, businesses, whatever there may be ? sort of like when we have a major snowstorm and we?re down to bare-bones basics and people aren?t to be out on the road traveling unless it?s absolutely necessary.[/B]



?We urged all the municipalities to come up with their plan,? she added, ?but I don?t think I could, in any way, predict exactly what that?s going to look like when we?re there.?



It's beginning. As the story grows, officials are being forced to respond to concerns of the possibilities. But globally officials are not prepared. They are not being specific. This is going to create panic. The lack of specific scenarios, the lack of specific suggestions, the lack of central guidance, the lack of confidence from the very top is the sort of thing that will breed uncontrolled, and undirected kneejerk panic.
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

in NY state at least, it appears to have taken 37 deaths in 3 widely separated metro regions to start steering the Titanic away from the iceberg.

as far as creating panic due to lack of specifics, the above advice is likely the best they can do with regards to an autumn scenario, which at this point is 2 maybe 3 months away in New York state. Possibly the guidance from the top will get clearer as the summer progresses and the trajectory of the outbreak is better understood.

I'm just glad that the H1N1 "mild" meme is finally falling by the wayside. What a shame that so many had to die before that could happen.
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

#1-4

Yes.
Better now than never, but the suggested measures must be already ready and implemented before.

The cited closures/isolations were well working if implemented at the very begining.

Now the illness is growing everywhere and the loosings in human lifes and money will be multiplicated heavily compared to an initial effort of only 2 weeks of worldwide closures/quarantines.

The until now used measures allowed the worldwide spreadings.
No consequences for such global choose makers.

The policy of wide local uninformation of the world populations until the illness will be at every corner, will lead to panics and chaos, the same things the pompouse "measures" claims wants to deminish.
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

tropical those are good points. this is 11th hour preparation to be sure, and sending people out into a virulent outbreak to stand shoulder to shoulder in a grocery checkout line with their 3 weeks of supplies is not the best of situations.

but lacking a prompt and coherent containment of the outbreak from the beginning, and with a hopelessly uninformed and unprepared population, what else can be done now?
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

....as far as creating panic due to lack of specifics, the above advice is likely the best they can do with regards to an autumn scenario, which at this point is 2 maybe 3 months away in New York state.

As far as the timeline, see the following thread for a new hypothesis regarding that - http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111618

And in regards to the advice / preparedness officials could be giving - they've had years to think about this. The H5N1 possibilities have been fully vetted by this time, and I am quite sure that a great deal of thought has been given to various scenarios.

I will give officials a little bit of current credit in that they are finally at least transitioning into "preparedness statements" and away from "don't worry - be happy" guidance. But it may soon be too late - if they do not begin NOW to ramp up the public awareness of preparedness issues.
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

mountain's voice, thanks for the interesting insight into the "fall wave" predictions.
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

...
but lacking a prompt and coherent containment of the outbreak from the beginning, and with a hopelessly uninformed and unprepared population, what else can be done now?

I agree appleblossom.

Maybe an start could be changing the policy which pushed us all to this point and take into consideration other advisors more human health oriented.

Than, an late insertion of inner containment measures are better than had hands up by allowing the virus roaming freely, as it is seen now by the "protect"/sustain strategies in some afected countries.

As stated in previous posts, if some business can be slowed or stoped by the markets burnings holes, or by wars, and all that seems normal, than such or other businesses could going in the same standby mode now because of an pandemic anti-proliferation policy during 4 months until the vaccines are produced.
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

Applause for this article advising people to prepare for the possibility.

In my opinion, it's a great start, but it will require many more similar news releases to get the attention of the public.
After so much media that downplayed the threat and diffused the danger, most people are not concerned about our current pandemic.

From reading comments on any and every flu related article in our online newspaper, it's clear that most don't even want to be bothered with further news reports.
Given the mood I sense from their comments, they are still happily living a life of carry-out food, drive-thru convenience and no concern over anything possibly disrupting it.

While I sincerely hope their bubble is never shattered, I do not plan to be in the supermarket with them when they are infected and desperately seeking frozen dinners and OTC meds.
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

While I sincerely hope their bubble is never shattered, I do not plan to be in the supermarket with them when they are infected and desperately seeking frozen dinners and OTC meds.

couldn't agree more
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

the article in post#1 should, IMO, be added to the " News for Journalists" space, with a link to this thread.
 
Re: NY State Officials: Prepare for City & Business Service Disruptions

this is interesting. this article is also being discussed on PFI Forum, and one person had this to say about it::::

Aeolus
Posted: Sun Jun 21, 2009 9:52 am
I posted this May 16 on Rumors 4 Thread->

About an hour ago I got a phone call from a gal that knows we track panflu, she is already prepped btw. She said she had just come from a one on one meeting with one of the three folks in charge of county emergency response (we live in a very sparcely populated area). Unsolicited this gentleman told her to get prepped for wave 2. Said wave 1 was expected to continue to be mild but that wave 2 would exceed 1918. He didn't know she was a prepper.

We live in one of the mentioned counties->

Flu prompts warning to stock up on food (New York)
http://www.dailyfreeman.com/articles/2009/06/21/news/doc4a3db38b31820056977456.txt

KINGSTON — People should have a three-week supply of food on hand in the case the current swine flu pandemic worsens, the leader of a town supervisors’ group said last week, and he warned that 40 percent of the workforce could be kept away from their jobs this fall if the outbreak lasts that long.



hmm..... May 16?! So over a month ago someone told those Dutchess, Ulster, and Greene county officials that this was going to be serious, and yet the public is only NOW being told to prep. So what has changed?
 
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