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Not "too late" for H1N1 flu vaccine: health secretary

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
Not "too late" for H1N1 flu vaccine: health secretary

Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:43am EDT

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite long lines and limited supplies of the H1N1 flu vaccine, U.S. efforts against the disease are not too late, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said on Monday.

Sebelius acknowledged frustrating waits to get the vaccine, but said some 16.5 million doses are now being made available, with efforts to get more.
"I never like to see people inconvenienced," Sebelius said on ABC's "Good Morning America. "If we had found the virus a little earlier, we could have started a little earlier."

Asked whether this effort might be too late in light of one estimate that the H1N1 flu virus will peak by October 31, Sebelius said, "I don't think it's too late ... What we saw in 1950s (flu pandemic) was that there was a big outbreak in fall and then a new wave in the spring."
With a future wave of H1N1 possible, vaccination is still useful, Sebelius said.

She acknowledged that four out of five sources of the vaccine are outside the United States, but said an additional U.S. plant will be making the vaccine in 2010.

"Certainly it's a concern that we rely on other nations to purchase the vaccine," Sebelius said.

In response to a question about whether the United States should have taken more aggressive measures earlier, Sebelius told NBC's "Today" program that it was unclear early on just how deadly this virus would be.
She noted that 1,000 people have died from this disease in the United States but added, "This is not presenting in most people to be a seriously lethal disease."

Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, speaking on CNN, advised healthy adults over 25 and senior citizens to wait and allow more vulnerable patients -- children, young adults, healthcare workers, pregnant women, adults with chronic conditions and parents and others who take care of infants -- to receive the vaccine first.

President Barack Obama has declared 2009 H1N1 swine flu a national emergency which the White House said will make it easier for U.S. medical facilities to handle a surge in flu patients by allowing the waiver of some requirements of Medicare, Medicaid and other federal health insurance programs as needed.


http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE59J58H20091026
 
Re: Not "too late" for H1N1 flu vaccine: health secretary

related thread:

Credits to Ironorehopper
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128518

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19358
Eurosurveillance, Volume 14, Issue 41, 15 October 2009

Rapid communications
PANDEMIC H1N1 INFLUENZA: PREDICTING THE COURSE OF A PANDEMIC AND ASSESSING THE EFFICACY OF THE PLANNED VACCINATION PROGRAMME IN THE UNITED STATES
S Towers ( )1, Z Feng2
1. Department of Statistics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, United States
2. Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, United States
________________________________________
Citation style for this article: Towers S, Feng Z. Pandemic H1N1 influenza: predicting the course of a pandemic and assessing the efficacy of the planned vaccination programme in the United States. Euro Surveill. 2009;14(41):pii=19358. Available online: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19358
Date of submission: 08 October 2009
________________________________________
We use data on confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), disseminated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(US CDC), to fit the parameters of a seasonally forced Susceptible, Infective, Recovered (SIR) model. We use the resulting model to predict the course of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in autumn 2009, and we assess the efficacy of the planned CDC H1N1 vaccination campaign. The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.
 

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Re: Not "too late" for H1N1 flu vaccine: health secretary

63% infected ??!??


not what we are seeing in the real world.
 
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