tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Nonlinear Dyn
. 2020 Sep 1;1-12.
doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05879-x. Online ahead of print.
Age-group-targeted testing for COVID-19 as a new prevention strategy
Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sourin Chatterjee[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Satvik Saha[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Rajeev K Azad[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Robust testing and tracing are key to fighting the menace of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This outbreak has progressed with tremendous impact on human life, society and economy. In this paper, we propose an age-structured SIQR model to track the progression of the pandemic in India, Italy and USA, taking into account the different age structures of these countries. We have made predictions about the disease dynamics, identified the most infected age groups and analysed the effectiveness of social distancing measures taken in the early stages of infection. The basic reproductive ratio R0
has been numerically calculated for each country. We propose a strategy of age-targeted testing, with increased testing in the most proportionally infected age groups. We observe a marked flattening of the infection curve upon simulating increased testing in the 15-40 year age groups in India. Thus, we conclude that social distancing and widespread testing are effective methods of control, with emphasis on testing and identifying the hot spots of highly infected populations. It has also been suggested that a complete lockdown, followed by lockdowns in selected regions, is more effective than the reverse.
Keywords: Age-structured SIQR model; Age-targeted testing; Basic reproductive ratio; COVID-19; Epidemic model.
. 2020 Sep 1;1-12.
doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05879-x. Online ahead of print.
Age-group-targeted testing for COVID-19 as a new prevention strategy
Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sourin Chatterjee[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Satvik Saha[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Rajeev K Azad[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32904917
- PMCID: PMC7462111
- DOI: 10.1007/s11071-020-05879-x
Abstract
Robust testing and tracing are key to fighting the menace of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This outbreak has progressed with tremendous impact on human life, society and economy. In this paper, we propose an age-structured SIQR model to track the progression of the pandemic in India, Italy and USA, taking into account the different age structures of these countries. We have made predictions about the disease dynamics, identified the most infected age groups and analysed the effectiveness of social distancing measures taken in the early stages of infection. The basic reproductive ratio R0
has been numerically calculated for each country. We propose a strategy of age-targeted testing, with increased testing in the most proportionally infected age groups. We observe a marked flattening of the infection curve upon simulating increased testing in the 15-40 year age groups in India. Thus, we conclude that social distancing and widespread testing are effective methods of control, with emphasis on testing and identifying the hot spots of highly infected populations. It has also been suggested that a complete lockdown, followed by lockdowns in selected regions, is more effective than the reverse.
Keywords: Age-structured SIQR model; Age-targeted testing; Basic reproductive ratio; COVID-19; Epidemic model.