Michael Coston
Editor, Senior Moderator
NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
#19,170
While there are a great many potentially negative impacts to global weather from the forecasted (moderate-to-strong) El Niño, the one bright spot for those of us who live along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts is its tendency to dampen the intensity of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season.
Today, NOAA released their 2026 Atlantic Hurricane outlook which predicts a below-normal season ahead. The caveat being, that one of the worst storms in decades - 1992's Cat 5 Hurricane Andrew - struck during a relatively quiet El Niño year.
As they say, it only takes one. Which is why I'll prep this year with the same intensity as I do every year (see past blogs here, here, here, and here).
Some excerpts from today's announcement from NOAA:
NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Early preparation essential to staying safe all season
May 21, 2026
A NOAA satellite view of a massive Hurricane Erin churning off the U.S. East Coast taken August 20, 2025. (Image credit: NOAA Satellites)
Download Image
RESOURCES
NOAA Research: New technology, advanced models and AI deployed to improve hurricane forecasting
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook - Spanish
2026 Atlantic hurricane names graphic - Spanish
Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
(Continue . . . )
If this is your first hurricane season - or you would just like a refresher - you'll find a number of short videos on hurricane prepareded at this NOAA website:
And a reminder, you don't have to live on the coast to be impacted by a hurricane or tropical storm. Often flooding, high winds, and even tornadoes are reported hundreds of miles inland, and days after landfall.
While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, andMike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/05/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026.html
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS: El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027).
#19,170
While there are a great many potentially negative impacts to global weather from the forecasted (moderate-to-strong) El Niño, the one bright spot for those of us who live along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts is its tendency to dampen the intensity of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season.
Hurricanes will undoubtedly still appear, but during El Niño conditions, they tend to be less frequent. And after the battering the Gulf States have taken over the past decade, any respite is a welcome one.
Today, NOAA released their 2026 Atlantic Hurricane outlook which predicts a below-normal season ahead. The caveat being, that one of the worst storms in decades - 1992's Cat 5 Hurricane Andrew - struck during a relatively quiet El Niño year.
As they say, it only takes one. Which is why I'll prep this year with the same intensity as I do every year (see past blogs here, here, here, and here).
Some excerpts from today's announcement from NOAA:
NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Early preparation essential to staying safe all season
May 21, 2026
A NOAA satellite view of a massive Hurricane Erin churning off the U.S. East Coast taken August 20, 2025. (Image credit: NOAA Satellites)
Download Image
RESOURCES
NOAA Research: New technology, advanced models and AI deployed to improve hurricane forecasting
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook - Spanish
2026 Atlantic hurricane names graphic - Spanish
Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
(Continue . . . )
If this is your first hurricane season - or you would just like a refresher - you'll find a number of short videos on hurricane prepareded at this NOAA website:
The Hurricane Preparedness Week Social Media Plan
2026 SOCIAL MEDIA PLANS AND VIDEOS English: May 3 - May 9, 2026
En español: 3 de mayo - 9 de mayo de 2026
Chinese: 年5月3日 - 2025年5月9日
Vietnamese: Ngày 3 Tháng 5, Năm - Ngày 9 Tháng 5, Năm 2026
English: Videos
En español: Videos
Chinese: 年5月3日 - 2025年5月9日
Vietnamese: Ngày 3 Tháng 5, Năm - Ngày 9 Tháng 5, Năm 2026
English: Videos
En español: Videos
#HurricaneStrong #HurricanePrep
Please help the NWS spread the word about Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3-May 9, 2026) on social media! Everyone is welcome to use the text and images provided below to help the NWS build a Weather-Ready Nation.
May 3, 2026 — Know Your Risk: Wind & Water
May 4, 2026 — Prepare Before Hurricane Season
May 5, 2026 — Understand Forecast Information
May 6, 2026 — Get Moving When a Storm Threatens
May 7, 2026 — Stay Protected During Storms
May 8, 2026 — Use Caution After Storms
May 9, 2026 —Take Action Today
May 4, 2026 — Prepare Before Hurricane Season
May 5, 2026 — Understand Forecast Information
May 6, 2026 — Get Moving When a Storm Threatens
May 7, 2026 — Stay Protected During Storms
May 8, 2026 — Use Caution After Storms
May 9, 2026 —Take Action Today
And a reminder, you don't have to live on the coast to be impacted by a hurricane or tropical storm. Often flooding, high winds, and even tornadoes are reported hundreds of miles inland, and days after landfall.
While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, andMike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/05/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026.html