tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Niger Postgrad Med J
. Oct-Dec 2020;27(4):271-279.
doi: 10.4103/npmj.npmj_233_20.
Epidemiological trends of coronavirus disease 2019 in Nigeria: From 1 to 10,000
Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Adebola A Adejimi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Brenda Isikekpei[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Chris S Jim[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Akin Osibogun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Folasade Tolulope Ogunsola[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in Nigeria was first reported on the 27[SUP]th[/SUP] February 2020 and 95 days after, it had spread to 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) with 10,162 confirmed cases. We reviewed the trends of the epidemic from the 27[SUP]th[/SUP] February to the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] May 2020, when it reached the 10,000[SUP]th[/SUP] mark vis-?-vis government policies to contain the spread of the disease.
Methods: We used publicly available data from the Nigeria Center for Disease Control from 27[SUP]th[/SUP] February 2020, when Nigeria recorded her first coronavirus disease 2019 case to the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] May 2020. We used line graphs to describe the trends of the daily course of cumulative cases, discharges and deaths in states and nationally. The doubling time, transmission rates were inferred from these trends and the epidemiological curve generated was reviewed vis-a-vis the instituted government policies over the specified period.
Results: The epidemic curve in Nigeria has been on an upward trajectory as the number of cases crossed the 10,000 marks, 3 months after the first case was recorded. The first spike in the number of new cases was observed on the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] April 2020, with 117 cases. The number of daily deaths within the study period was highest on the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] May 2020 (17 new deaths). Geo-political zone variations were also observed. Of the 63,882 screening tests conducted during the study period, 15.9% tested positive; the doubling time and transmission rates were 23.5 days and 1.0%, respectively, as at 31[SUP]st[/SUP] May 2020. Since the lockdown measures were lifted in Lagos and the FCT on the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] May 2020, the number of cases has been on a steady increase each week.
Conclusion and recommendations: In Nigeria, the epidemic curve has been on an upward direction since the first reported case and it took 3 months to reach 10,000 cases. We recommend a sustained drive in the enforcement of physical and social distancing and increase in testing capacity to flatten the epidemic curve.
Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019; Nigeria; epidemiology; trends.
. Oct-Dec 2020;27(4):271-279.
doi: 10.4103/npmj.npmj_233_20.
Epidemiological trends of coronavirus disease 2019 in Nigeria: From 1 to 10,000
Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Adebola A Adejimi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Brenda Isikekpei[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Chris S Jim[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Akin Osibogun[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Folasade Tolulope Ogunsola[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33154278
- DOI: 10.4103/npmj.npmj_233_20
Abstract
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in Nigeria was first reported on the 27[SUP]th[/SUP] February 2020 and 95 days after, it had spread to 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) with 10,162 confirmed cases. We reviewed the trends of the epidemic from the 27[SUP]th[/SUP] February to the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] May 2020, when it reached the 10,000[SUP]th[/SUP] mark vis-?-vis government policies to contain the spread of the disease.
Methods: We used publicly available data from the Nigeria Center for Disease Control from 27[SUP]th[/SUP] February 2020, when Nigeria recorded her first coronavirus disease 2019 case to the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] May 2020. We used line graphs to describe the trends of the daily course of cumulative cases, discharges and deaths in states and nationally. The doubling time, transmission rates were inferred from these trends and the epidemiological curve generated was reviewed vis-a-vis the instituted government policies over the specified period.
Results: The epidemic curve in Nigeria has been on an upward trajectory as the number of cases crossed the 10,000 marks, 3 months after the first case was recorded. The first spike in the number of new cases was observed on the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] April 2020, with 117 cases. The number of daily deaths within the study period was highest on the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] May 2020 (17 new deaths). Geo-political zone variations were also observed. Of the 63,882 screening tests conducted during the study period, 15.9% tested positive; the doubling time and transmission rates were 23.5 days and 1.0%, respectively, as at 31[SUP]st[/SUP] May 2020. Since the lockdown measures were lifted in Lagos and the FCT on the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] May 2020, the number of cases has been on a steady increase each week.
Conclusion and recommendations: In Nigeria, the epidemic curve has been on an upward direction since the first reported case and it took 3 months to reach 10,000 cases. We recommend a sustained drive in the enforcement of physical and social distancing and increase in testing capacity to flatten the epidemic curve.
Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019; Nigeria; epidemiology; trends.