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Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Giuseppe

Emeritus
[Source: NASA, Near Earth Object Program, full page: (LINK). Edited.]


Newly discovereed Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check

NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office, October 17, 2013


Newly discovereed asteroid 2013 TV135 made a close approach to Earth on Sept. 16 when it came within about 4.2 million miles (6.7 million kilometers). The asteroid is initially estimated to be about 1,300 feet (400 meters) in size and its orbit carries it as far out as about three quarters of the distance to Jupiter's orbit and as close to the sun as the Earth's orbit. It was discovered on Oct. 8, 2013, by astronomers working at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory in the Ukraine. As of Oct. 14, asteroid 2013 TV135 is one of 10,332 Near-Earth objects that have been discovered

(?)

With only a week of observations for an orbital period that spans almost 4 years its future orbital path is still quite uncertain, but this asteroid could be back in the Earth's neighborhood in 2032. However, the Near-Earth Object Program Office states the probability this asteroid could then impact Earth is only 1-in 63,000. The object should be easily observable in the coming months and once additional observations are provided to the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge Massachusetts, the initial orbit calculations will be improved and the most likely result will be a dramatic reduction, or complete elimination, of any risk of Earth impact.

"To put it another way, that puts the current probability of no impact in 2032 at about 99.998 percent," said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "This is a relatively new discovery. With more observations, I fully expect we will be able to significantly reduce, or rule out entirely, any impact probability for the foreseeable future."

NASA detects, tracks and characterizes asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground- and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them, and determines their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

More information about asteroids and near-Earth objects is available at: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch and http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov .


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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 21 2013, Update]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]

  • 2032-08-26.35 - 0.53 - 1.45e-01 - 0.000 - -0.27207 - 8.89e+03 - 7.2e-05 - 2.41e+03 - -1.19 - 1
(...)

p = 1 / (7.2*(10^-5)) = 13,888.88_
 
Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 21 2013, Update]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]

  • 2032-08-26.35 - 0.53 - 1.45e-01 - 0.000 - -0.27207 - 8.89e+03 - 7.2e-05 - 2.41e+03 - -1.19 - 1
(...)

p = 1 / (7.2*(10^-5)) = 13,888.88_



hat tip Michael Coston for the link


Impact Probability: 7.2e-05

0.007200000% chance of Earth impact

or

1 in 14,000 chance

or

99.99280000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth


http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?7.2e-05
 
Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 21 2013, Update - Time: 8:55pm GMT+1 CEST]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]


  • 2032-08-26.35 - 0.64 - 8.39e-02 - 0.000 - 1.28653 - 4.87e+03 - 5.4e-05 - 3.12e+03 - -1.22 - 1
(...)

p = 1 / (5.4*(10^-5)) = 18.518,518518518518518518518518519


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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 23 2013, Update - Time: 6:32pm GMT+1 CEST]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]


  • 2032-08-26.35 - 0.65 - 6.51e-02 - 0.000 - 0.71070 - 4.45e+03 - 1.0e-04 - 3.22e+03 - -0.93 - 1
(...)

p = 1 / (1.0*(10^-4)) = 10,000


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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

The (cumulative) impact probability is currently 1.1 e -4, which makes the probability of impact 1 in 9090:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?1.1e-04

There is apparently a second risk in 2047, which is about two orders of magnitude less likely, accounting for the difference.
 
Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

[Source: RIA/Novosti, full page: (LINK). Extract.]


Impact Risk Hiked for 400-Meter-Wide Asteroid ? NASA

18:12 24/10/2013


MOSCOW, October 24 (RIA Novosti) ? NASA has upgraded the impact risk for a massive asteroid recently discovered by Ukrainian observers that will pass close to the Earth in 2032, although a collision remains unlikely.

(?)


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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 24 2013, Update - Time: 9:50pm GMT+1 CEST]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]



  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.71 - 5.18e-02 - 0.000 - 0.84982 - 4.14e+03 - 9.4e-05 - 3.17e+03 - -0.98 - 1
(...)

p = 1 / (9.4*(10^-5)) = 10,638.297872340425531914893617021


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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 25 2013, Update - Time: 6:05pm GMT+1 CEST]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]



  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.73 - 4.63e-02 - 0.000 - 1.38855 - 4.33e+03 - 4.8e-05 - 3.14e+03 - -1.28 - 1
(...)

p = 1 / (4.8*(10^-5)) = 20,833.333333333333333333333333333

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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 28 2013, Update - Time: 9:15am GMT+1]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]



  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.78 - 3.49e-02 - 0.000 - 1.61005 - 3.89e+03 - 3.5e-05 - 3.21e+03 - -1.40 - 1
(...)

p = 1 / (3.5*(10^-5)) = 28,571.428571428571428571428571429

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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 30 2013, Update - Time: 9:35pm GMT+1]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]


  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.77 - 3.48e-02 - 0.000 - 1.42920 - 4.04e+03 - 4.5e-05 - 3.25e+03 - -1.29 - 1
(...)

p = 1 / (4.5*(10^-5)) = 22,222.222222222222222222222222222

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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.html

[As of October 31 2013, Update - Time: 9:35pm GMT+1]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]


  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.78 - 2.95e-02 - 0.000 - 0.41160 - 2.78e+03 - 1.6e-04 - 3.25e+03 - -0.73 - 1

(...)

p = 1 / (1.6*(10^-4)) = 6,250

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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.htm

[As of November 2 2013, Update - Time: 5:00pm GMT+1]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]



  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.88 - 4.03e-02 - 0.000 - -2.74621 - 2.25e+03 - 3.9e-06 - 3.18e+03 - -2.36 - 0

(...)

p = 1 / (3.9*(10^-6)) = 256,410.25641025641025641025641026


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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

How is this estimate so much larger than the previous ones?
 
Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

How is this estimate so much larger than the previous ones?

According this new estimate there isnt' currently an impact risk for this object (Palermo scale <-1.5, Torino Scale=0).

Further observations, however, may change this estimate.
 
Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.htm

[As of November 2 2013, Update - Time: 9:10pm GMT+1]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]



  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.87 - 4.34e-02 - 0.000 - -2.02434 - 2.60e+03 - 1.9e-05 - 3.18e+03 - -1.66 - 1

(...)

p = 1 / (1.9*(10^-5)) = 52,631.578947368421052631578947368

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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

How is this estimate so much larger than the previous ones?

It's actually much SMALLER, not larger. That number at the end is the reciprocal of the probabiliy of impact. It is possible that new data has made impact significantly less likely.
 
Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.htm

[As of November 3 2013, Update - Time: 4:56pm GMT+1]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]




  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.83 - 3.85e-02 - 0.000 - -2.66168 - 1.69e+03 - 7.6e-06 - 3.17e+03 - -2.07 - 0
(...)

p = 1 / (7.6*(10^-6)) = 131,578.94736842105263157894736842

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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.htm

[As of November 4 2013, Update - Time: 5:18pm GMT+1]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]



  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.79 - 3.40e-02 - 0.000 - -4.23449 - 1.31e+03 - 4.8e-08 - 3.13e+03 - -4.27 - 0
(...)

p = 1 / (4.8*(10^-8)) = 20,833,333.333333333333333333333333

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Re: Newly discovered Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check (NASA/NEO, October 18 2013)

Source: NASA/NEO, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2013tv135.htm

[As of November 5 2013, Update - Time: 3:05pm GMT+1]

2013 TV135 - Earth Impact Table

[Date (YYYY-MM-DD.DD ) - Distance (rEarth) - Width (rEarth) - Sigma Impact - Sigma LOV - Stretch LOV (rEarth) - Impact Probability - Impact Energy (MT) - Palermo Scale - Torino Scale]




  • 2032-08-26.36 - 0.79 - 3.39e-02 - 0.000 - -4.31180 - 1.30e+03 - 3.5e-08 - 3.18e+03 - -4.41 - 0

(...)

p = 1 / (3.5*(10^-8)) = 28,571,428.571428571428571428571429

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