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New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
- Thread starter thebes
- Start date
Re: New flu resembles feared 1918 virus, study finds
Re: New flu resembles feared 1918 virus, study finds
I'm wondering if the facts that the elderly receive a once in a lifetime pneumonia shot and many are taking statins which lessen the effect of pneumonia have any bearing on the elderly not getting as severe cases of H1N1?
Re: New flu resembles feared 1918 virus, study finds
I'm wondering if the facts that the elderly receive a once in a lifetime pneumonia shot and many are taking statins which lessen the effect of pneumonia have any bearing on the elderly not getting as severe cases of H1N1?
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
H2N2 (which replaced H1N1 in 1957) is circulating TODAY in birds.
So what does 1957 and "130 years away" have to with ANYTHING?????
H2N2 (which replaced H1N1 in 1957) is circulating TODAY in birds.
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
130 years is la la land.
Nonsense. Those born prior to 1957 have protection because H1N1 prior to 1957 is similar to 1918 pandemic H1N1 AND pandemic 2009.
130 years is la la land.
Giuseppe
Emeritus
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
Curiously earlier studies about protective effects of a seasonal H1N1 based vaccines administered in animals showed some protection against reconstructed 1918 virus reassortants strains.
The same studies were used to support the safety of research facilities in the case of accidental release of such viruses.
The group discussed the chances of possible containment strategies if these viruses may have escaped from labs.
Now, it seems that these studies are no longer taken into account for protecting first line responders to an epidemic sustained by a close-relative of these reconstructed 1918 viruses.
At this point, a question clearly arises: these studies about protective effects of immunizations with New Caledonia or Texas H1N1 human viruses in animals - to protect against accidental labs pathogens' releases, were solid based or were done only for improve regulatory officers' inspections to the research facilities?
Curiously earlier studies about protective effects of a seasonal H1N1 based vaccines administered in animals showed some protection against reconstructed 1918 virus reassortants strains.
The same studies were used to support the safety of research facilities in the case of accidental release of such viruses.
The group discussed the chances of possible containment strategies if these viruses may have escaped from labs.
Now, it seems that these studies are no longer taken into account for protecting first line responders to an epidemic sustained by a close-relative of these reconstructed 1918 viruses.
At this point, a question clearly arises: these studies about protective effects of immunizations with New Caledonia or Texas H1N1 human viruses in animals - to protect against accidental labs pathogens' releases, were solid based or were done only for improve regulatory officers' inspections to the research facilities?
Giuseppe
Emeritus
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
In addition to the above comment I've done, I would like to express my disappoint about a series of press releases who taken without any kind of discussion the results of a research article, making a parallelism with the Spanish Flu Pandemic and current pandemic of swine origin H1N1.
Some of the results in these articles need to be correctly evaluated by people with deep knowledge of the facts and of course the personal story of submitters.
At this joint, if people starts to state that current global pandemic is the same as 1918, most of the world's countries could find hard to do anything to contain the spread of illness.
In other words, what's matter? Any kind of measure will fail to mitigate infections spread in third world countries, and as expected an huge toll will be accounted for them.
The release of a paper stating a possible 1918 re-run in the overcrowded world community in connection with a WHO press release about a poor yield seed vaccine strain will surely cause severe strain both to population and economy.
Until weeks ago, 1918 was stated an 'avian virus' with some genetical determinants for its extreme virulence.
Now, all these works, partly done by the same people now claiming parallelism with the past, is being threw indo garbage.
Where is the reality? Where is the true explanations to current events?
Another time, we are experiencing a very low point in scientists ethical skill.
In addition to the above comment I've done, I would like to express my disappoint about a series of press releases who taken without any kind of discussion the results of a research article, making a parallelism with the Spanish Flu Pandemic and current pandemic of swine origin H1N1.
Some of the results in these articles need to be correctly evaluated by people with deep knowledge of the facts and of course the personal story of submitters.
At this joint, if people starts to state that current global pandemic is the same as 1918, most of the world's countries could find hard to do anything to contain the spread of illness.
In other words, what's matter? Any kind of measure will fail to mitigate infections spread in third world countries, and as expected an huge toll will be accounted for them.
The release of a paper stating a possible 1918 re-run in the overcrowded world community in connection with a WHO press release about a poor yield seed vaccine strain will surely cause severe strain both to population and economy.
Until weeks ago, 1918 was stated an 'avian virus' with some genetical determinants for its extreme virulence.
Now, all these works, partly done by the same people now claiming parallelism with the past, is being threw indo garbage.
Where is the reality? Where is the true explanations to current events?
Another time, we are experiencing a very low point in scientists ethical skill.
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
The current genetic differences between the 1918 pandemic virus and the current Swine Flu virus are quite large, especially with respect to several important gene segments and amino acids within those segments.
A 2% difference can be significant, sort of like the DNA differences between humans and chimpanzees.
I have not seen any evidence that the CFR of Swine Flu is approaching that of the 1918 pandemic. But having said that, if the virus acquires some important gene changes along the way, then perhaps. For us to predict those changes with a substantial degree of confidence is difficult at best.
The current genetic differences between the 1918 pandemic virus and the current Swine Flu virus are quite large, especially with respect to several important gene segments and amino acids within those segments.
A 2% difference can be significant, sort of like the DNA differences between humans and chimpanzees.
I have not seen any evidence that the CFR of Swine Flu is approaching that of the 1918 pandemic. But having said that, if the virus acquires some important gene changes along the way, then perhaps. For us to predict those changes with a substantial degree of confidence is difficult at best.
Giuseppe
Emeritus
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
Alarmist? Not.
But his work needs urgently to be put into perspective and debate.
The cross-reactivity of antibodies found in 1918 survivors is a fact. But the parallelism needs more data for being supported.
I continue to highlight the earlier studies in biocontainment measures for accidental release of 1918-like pathogen from labs involved in re-contruction of spanish flu virus from segments recovered from corpses.
If these studies are solid and valid, at least some of the seasonal human influenza strains (A/Texas and A/New Caledonia) seemed to protect animals from lethal infection by 1918-like viruses.
Also the treatment with oseltamivir/zanamivir were tested in animals with comparable results to current study.
If the media fanfare will continue without a careful debate, the risk is the possible relaxation of mitigation measures by less affluent nations, that are of course the majority in our world.
An extra ethical exercise is of the most importance even for mainstream media.
Alarmist? Not.
But his work needs urgently to be put into perspective and debate.
The cross-reactivity of antibodies found in 1918 survivors is a fact. But the parallelism needs more data for being supported.
I continue to highlight the earlier studies in biocontainment measures for accidental release of 1918-like pathogen from labs involved in re-contruction of spanish flu virus from segments recovered from corpses.
If these studies are solid and valid, at least some of the seasonal human influenza strains (A/Texas and A/New Caledonia) seemed to protect animals from lethal infection by 1918-like viruses.
Also the treatment with oseltamivir/zanamivir were tested in animals with comparable results to current study.
If the media fanfare will continue without a careful debate, the risk is the possible relaxation of mitigation measures by less affluent nations, that are of course the majority in our world.
An extra ethical exercise is of the most importance even for mainstream media.
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
IOH, I understand what you are saying. The problem seems to be the mindset of the masses. Too many scientists and medical professionals are staying in the old mindset. We should have a new paradigm today, one that moves toward helping all peoples, cultures, ethnicity, etc., etc. I am going with Dr. Niman because he has made predictions in the past, using his expertise and scientific knowledge, fully aware that he would be labeled as an alarmist, too. My wife and I have been preparing for quite a while now, since we are poor, for what I believe is the inevitable. We are both in our 60's, have both lost our jobs, and are doing the best we can. Until we forget about politics, money, and scientific papers to be argued, we as humans are in for what may possibly be the defining moment of our lives. Thank you all and good luck.
Oldman
IOH, I understand what you are saying. The problem seems to be the mindset of the masses. Too many scientists and medical professionals are staying in the old mindset. We should have a new paradigm today, one that moves toward helping all peoples, cultures, ethnicity, etc., etc. I am going with Dr. Niman because he has made predictions in the past, using his expertise and scientific knowledge, fully aware that he would be labeled as an alarmist, too. My wife and I have been preparing for quite a while now, since we are poor, for what I believe is the inevitable. We are both in our 60's, have both lost our jobs, and are doing the best we can. Until we forget about politics, money, and scientific papers to be argued, we as humans are in for what may possibly be the defining moment of our lives. Thank you all and good luck.
Oldman
Giuseppe
Emeritus
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
The problem with the predictions is that these have been useless: no treatment regimens, no new vaccine manufacturing approaches, and of course, no correct predictions at all of the new causative agent...
I am disconcerted: since 1997 I am hearing of H5N1 and preparedness.
Further, the need of preparedness was announced in 1997 after the first H5N1 epidemic in Hong Kong: at the time, a vaccine specific to the strain could have prepared in at least six months.
Now? At least six months...
So, thousands of papers, articles, statements about every aspect of the future pandemic virus - what is really the matter?
To publish a paper and gain fundings, grants or to save people from diseases?
If in a single day two heavy weight (Nature and WHO) put the world in front of a reality that a 1918 re-run is happening, I am at this point sure that no coincidences are needed.
After an economic recession mimicking the 1929 one, that wiped out millions of jobs, cut the life expectancy of low income countries, billions of dollars spent to save banks, now these faces are saying: well, we cannot do anything, these viruses are unknown but known as killer, all of you need to take care for yourself...
Are these faces ethical?
Are these faces saving our lives?
The problem with the predictions is that these have been useless: no treatment regimens, no new vaccine manufacturing approaches, and of course, no correct predictions at all of the new causative agent...
I am disconcerted: since 1997 I am hearing of H5N1 and preparedness.
Further, the need of preparedness was announced in 1997 after the first H5N1 epidemic in Hong Kong: at the time, a vaccine specific to the strain could have prepared in at least six months.
Now? At least six months...
So, thousands of papers, articles, statements about every aspect of the future pandemic virus - what is really the matter?
To publish a paper and gain fundings, grants or to save people from diseases?
If in a single day two heavy weight (Nature and WHO) put the world in front of a reality that a 1918 re-run is happening, I am at this point sure that no coincidences are needed.
After an economic recession mimicking the 1929 one, that wiped out millions of jobs, cut the life expectancy of low income countries, billions of dollars spent to save banks, now these faces are saying: well, we cannot do anything, these viruses are unknown but known as killer, all of you need to take care for yourself...
Are these faces ethical?
Are these faces saving our lives?
Farmer
Senior Moderator
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
I agree that with all the world?s resources available, we could now have:
- Multiple strains of H5N1 vaccine trialed and ready to go.
- New classes of antivirals to treat influenza.
- Free sharing of information without the career needs to be the first to publish.
But we are resource-limited. That has always been the problem with public health and prevention, it is difficult to convince society as a whole to prioritize resources without a clear, specific and immediate threat.
That is my problem at the individual level in trying to convince friends and family to prepare- there are too often more immediate and compelling places to spend money.
I believe that the problem is not ethics, it is resources.
I agree that with all the world?s resources available, we could now have:
- Multiple strains of H5N1 vaccine trialed and ready to go.
- New classes of antivirals to treat influenza.
- Free sharing of information without the career needs to be the first to publish.
But we are resource-limited. That has always been the problem with public health and prevention, it is difficult to convince society as a whole to prioritize resources without a clear, specific and immediate threat.
That is my problem at the individual level in trying to convince friends and family to prepare- there are too often more immediate and compelling places to spend money.
I believe that the problem is not ethics, it is resources.
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
1918 and 2009 H1N1 Similarities Confirm Recombination
Recombinomics Commentary 14:41
July 13, 2009
The new Nature report also assessed the immune response of different groups to the new virus. The most intriguing finding, according to Kawaoka, is that those people exposed to the 1918 virus, all of whom are now in advanced old age, have antibodies that neutralize the H1N1 virus. "The people who have high antibody titers are the people born before 1918," he notes.
The above comments are in association with an upcoming publication in Nature demonstrating that patients born prior to 1918 still have antibodies that not only neutralize the 1918 pandemic virus, but also cross react with the 2009 pandemic swine H1N1. Similarly, the 2009 pandemic strain replicates more efficiently in the lungs of experiment mice and ferrets, which may explain the frequent deaths of previously healthy young adults. The targeting of <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04230901/SRI_Mexico_Alert.html">this age group</a> also <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04240901/H1N1_Swine_Mexico.html">parallels</a> data from 1918.
These data further support the <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/presentations.html">observation</a> that the 90% of the polymorphisms in sequences of all 8 gene segments from the 1918 pandemic strain can be found in a human H1N1 isolate, WSN/33 or a swine H1N1 isolate, A/swine/Iowa/15/1930. These data support a scenario that mimics the data for 2009, which involves a swine H1N1 moving into a human population and spreading efficiently.
Data worldwide identify previously healthy young adults dying from the pandemic H1N1 infection. However, as the swine H1N1 spreads throughout the human population, opportunities for adaption to human host arise via acquisition of human polymorphisms. Interestingly, many of the new acquisitions of can be found in early H1H1 isolates, raising additional concerns that the 2009 pandemic H1N1 is following a path similar to the evolutionary path of 1918.
A recent <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07100901/H274Y_Fit.html">isolate</a> from Japan, A/Sapporo/1/2009 has a genetic HA backbone matching the recent oseltamilvir resistant isolate A/Hong Kong/1269/2009, but has acquired a new polymorphism found in WSN/33 as well as an additional polymorphism found in swine/Iowa/15/1930, further supporting evolution along the 1918 pathway.
Thus, the growing list of similarities between 2009 pandemic H1N1 and 1918 pandemic H1N1 continues to cause concern.
.
Commentary
1918 and 2009 H1N1 Similarities Confirm Recombination
Recombinomics Commentary 14:41
July 13, 2009
The new Nature report also assessed the immune response of different groups to the new virus. The most intriguing finding, according to Kawaoka, is that those people exposed to the 1918 virus, all of whom are now in advanced old age, have antibodies that neutralize the H1N1 virus. "The people who have high antibody titers are the people born before 1918," he notes.
The above comments are in association with an upcoming publication in Nature demonstrating that patients born prior to 1918 still have antibodies that not only neutralize the 1918 pandemic virus, but also cross react with the 2009 pandemic swine H1N1. Similarly, the 2009 pandemic strain replicates more efficiently in the lungs of experiment mice and ferrets, which may explain the frequent deaths of previously healthy young adults. The targeting of <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04230901/SRI_Mexico_Alert.html">this age group</a> also <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04240901/H1N1_Swine_Mexico.html">parallels</a> data from 1918.
These data further support the <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/presentations.html">observation</a> that the 90% of the polymorphisms in sequences of all 8 gene segments from the 1918 pandemic strain can be found in a human H1N1 isolate, WSN/33 or a swine H1N1 isolate, A/swine/Iowa/15/1930. These data support a scenario that mimics the data for 2009, which involves a swine H1N1 moving into a human population and spreading efficiently.
Data worldwide identify previously healthy young adults dying from the pandemic H1N1 infection. However, as the swine H1N1 spreads throughout the human population, opportunities for adaption to human host arise via acquisition of human polymorphisms. Interestingly, many of the new acquisitions of can be found in early H1H1 isolates, raising additional concerns that the 2009 pandemic H1N1 is following a path similar to the evolutionary path of 1918.
A recent <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07100901/H274Y_Fit.html">isolate</a> from Japan, A/Sapporo/1/2009 has a genetic HA backbone matching the recent oseltamilvir resistant isolate A/Hong Kong/1269/2009, but has acquired a new polymorphism found in WSN/33 as well as an additional polymorphism found in swine/Iowa/15/1930, further supporting evolution along the 1918 pathway.
Thus, the growing list of similarities between 2009 pandemic H1N1 and 1918 pandemic H1N1 continues to cause concern.
.
St Michael
Well-known member
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
It has little to do with ethics and much to do with cold hard reality.
We just don't know as much as we've fooled ourselves into thinking we know.
Science just isn't as far advanced as we had hoped. Scientists are not yet "gods." (and never will be.)
The true explanation you are seeking is found in metaphysics, not "science."
It has little to do with ethics and much to do with cold hard reality.
We just don't know as much as we've fooled ourselves into thinking we know.
Science just isn't as far advanced as we had hoped. Scientists are not yet "gods." (and never will be.)
The true explanation you are seeking is found in metaphysics, not "science."
Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu
The Nature paper saying 1918 evolved from birds and had key changes was just describing mammalian polymorphisms. The "key" polymorphims in 1918 were also in seasonal H1N1 as well as swine H1N1, providing additional support for the evolution of 1918 H1N1 from human H1N1 and swine H1N1.
The reality is 2009 is a 1918 re-run, nonsense about 1918 evolving from birds notwithstanding. 1918 was a human swine recombinant, and as pandemic swine H1N1 of 2009 evolves human hosts, it will be a himan/swine recombinant also.
The Nature paper saying 1918 evolved from birds and had key changes was just describing mammalian polymorphisms. The "key" polymorphims in 1918 were also in seasonal H1N1 as well as swine H1N1, providing additional support for the evolution of 1918 H1N1 from human H1N1 and swine H1N1.