New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI Revised Downward

[JimO]

http://nmhealth.org/flu/documents/WeeklyReportBISN.Eng.10-11.Wk14.pdf

The chart below from the New Mexico Dept. of Health shows a dramatic jump in %ILI in Week 14 in the NM, Chihuahua, TX border region.

 

[gsgs]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

just one hospital

Aguilas de Zaragoza,Juarez

 

[JimO]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

I suspect that the increase could partly be due to the "worried well" flooding the emergency departments and doctors' offices. We'll have to see what data from Weeks 15 and 16 show.

just one hospital

Aguilas de Zaragoza,Juarez

 

[gsgs]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

why do "worried well" got to Aguilas and not Anapra or "B"

is it a local outbreak, maybe
did they change the ILI-criteria
did the increase the hospital

 

[JimO]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

So, the spike in ILI is mostly due to one hospital in Juarez? That is puzzling. They must have had a lot of patients with ILI to bring the whole region's percentage up by a factor of five in one week.

why do "worried well" got to Aguilas and not Anapra or "B"

is it a local outbreak, maybe
did they change the ILI-criteria
did the increase the hospital

 

[gsgs]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

yes, 355, see the border-report

 

[mixin]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Here's the report from Jim's link

 

[JimO]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Thanks Mixin, I'd passed right over that. I guess I'm a Graphophile .

I'm surprised El Paso is not part of the network. Something bizarre must be going on at that one hospital with 64.3% ILI. Either there is a localized outbreak combined with panic (lots of worried well) or there are a lot of sick people in the service area of that one hospital. I suppose it could also be a mistake, but that is doubtful with all the attention the region is currently receiving.

 

[mixin]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Don't feel bad; I just about overlooked the whole thing until I saw Gs make several comments about "one" hospital.

So far, we haven't been able to find that center in Aguilas on the map; but Google shows Aguilas, Ju?rez, Chihuahua, M?xico fairly close to an airport

 

[gsgs]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

in that link from the inauguration they say it's located at 5 places
director : Federico Alberto Castro
no homepage ? no email ? no telefone number ? no address ?

http://translate.google.com/transla...+a+la+Salud%22+aguilas+juarez&hl=en&prmd=ivns

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

in that link from the inauguration they say it's located at 5 places
director : Federico Alberto Castro
no homepage ? no email ? no telefone number ? no address ?

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.xepl.com.mx/completa1.php%3Fs%3Dregion%26i%3D17768&ei=EI-1TaOxJIKEOsTpgaAJ&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CCAQ7gEwAQ&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%2522Centro%2BAvanzado%2Bde%2BAtenci%25C3%25B3n%2BPrimaria%2Ba%2Bla%2BSalud%2522%2Baguilas%2Bjuarez%26hl%3Den%26prmd%3Divns

"The CAAPS Zaragoza is divided into five areas in which there will be offices, cubicles, toilets, pharmacy, waiting room, clinical records, laboratory, X-rays, areas used for healing, inhale and provide midwifery and prenatal care."

The single health care complex apparently has five sections, not five different locations.

Centro Avanzado de Atención Primaria a la Salud (CAAPS) de Águilas de Zaragoza is located in the southeastern part of Juarez.
General map below.

 

[gsgs]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

OK, I was irritated because they had a complex "Sur" (=South) but this probably only meant
that the whole Aguilas hospital complex is for the South of Juarez, while Anapra is for the North.

Now I have telefone number and address !

http://www.seguro-popular.gob.mx/in...n-todo-el-pais&catid=5:comunicados&Itemid=162

who calls them



CAAPS ?GUILAS DE ZARAGOZA
TEZOZOMOC Y TECPANCALTZIN S/N,
COL. ?GUILAS DE ZARAGOZA
6566664918



--------------------------------------------

seems also that they have enumerated all buildings in Juarez,
which I think is a good idea.
Google map search for Tezozomov,Juarez suggests
building 4201 is one of them

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

el Centro de Salud ?B?

Address (in downtown Juarez)

el Centro de Salud ?B?
Av. Ju?rez y Vicente Guerrero s/n
Col Centro
Cd. Ju?rez, Chihuahua, M?xico

Location Map

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Ok I called.

The first person who answered the phone told me that they have a lot of cases.

Then I called the Health Dept of Juarez and I am supposed to call back in 2 hours to speak to the doctor who is handling the influenza situation.

 

[gsgs]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

thank you Sharon.
Will it be broadcasted at sandysprings ?

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

No. That radio station is no longer producing the Infectious Disease Hour.

I am glad that JimO started this thread.

 

[alert]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Just a numerical oddity...If that hospital has increased from 7 ILI cases the week before to 355 the current week, then the number of other illnesses/causes must have decreeased dramatically. That 7 represents 1.1% the previous week, so the total base number is still about 550.

So last week all non-ILI cases in that hospital was about 550, now it's less than 200? An increase in ILI shouldn't affect the total number of non-ILI cases that drastically (although is it possible people want to stay away from a hospital full of coughing patients if they don't have ILI?).

I suspect the 552 count this week for total patients may be incorrect (too low), or as stated above the 355 ILI may be too high, which may be part of the problem. Nevertheless, we know there is some kind of large H1N1 outbreak going on in Juarez....

 

[gsgs]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

they usually have ~250 total patient visits per week, almost no ILI.
Then in week 12 it went up to 298, 22% of them with ILI.
In week 13 it went up to 631 total patients, but only 7 for ILI.
Then in week 14 552 patients and 355 of them ILI.
And no such thing in the other hospitals or CAAPSs.
That's not normal (in April !) and there should be a reason for this
which they should tell to the world.

---------------------------------------------

2011 weekly patients in 3 major hospitals in Juarez
weekatients/ILI-patients


07:226/0,847/2,1224/4
08:226/0,847/0,1146/9
09:244/0,859/1,1134/0
10:275/0,851/0,1134/0
11:?/0,?/0,1000/1
12:298/67,697/6,1132/24
13:631/7,892/1,1122/50
14:552/355,947/2,1095/50

---------------------------------

maybe the outbreak is over, maybe it's not H1N1,maybe it's only children,only one school,
maybe routine screening of travelors with symptoms
we should know - we're still in a pandemic.

 

[alert]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

they usually have <300 total patient visits per week.
Then suddenly in week 12 it went up to >500, 25% of them with ILI.
In week 13 it was still high, >500, but only 7 for ILI.
Then in week 14 >500 and 350 of them ILI.
And no such thing in the other hospitals or CAAPSs.
That's not normal and there should be a reason for this
which they should tell to the world.

Thanks for keeping an eye on this, gsgs.

Do we know if any of the seven deaths in Juarez came from this hospital? It looks like several hundred hospitalizations with few, if any deaths, which seems like a very low hospitalization fatality rate.

And isn't this week 17 by now? It seems like what is being reported reflects the situation 2-3 weeks ago, the result to taking time to collect data.

 

[gsgs]

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

Re: New Mexico Surveillance in Border Region - Dramatic Jump in ILI in Mexico

i corrected the numbers, see above.
The first deaths were at some traffic station in the SE,
I don't know what hospital they were in.

Aguilas started vaccination in early April

week 15 should become either

http://nmhealth.org/flu/documents/WeeklyReportBISN.04.16.11.Eng.10-11.Wk15.pdf
http://nmhealth.org/flu/documents/WeeklyReportBISN.Eng.10-11.Wk15.pdf