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New H5N1 outbreaks defy logic

AlaskaDenise

In Memoriam
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2007/01/19/200701190036.asp


World health officials are puzzled by the new outbreaks of H5N1 in Asia, saying they are more than a coincidence but not yet the feared epidemic.
"I cannot explain why we are having this outbreak of H5N1 in birds, and also human cases," said Dr David Nabarro, the United Nations coordinator for influenza.

"I do not want to suggest it is a coincidence because that is not an explanation of what occurs in epidemiology. We were expecting more outbreaks in the early months of 2007."

Although influenza usually spikes in humans as temperatures plunge, animals are immune to seasonal weaknesses.

The recent flare-ups, while not as virulent as previous outbreaks, are still worrying as they seem to defy a pattern or logic.

Dr Nabarro, who has been travelling incessantly since starting his job 15 months ago, praised the cooperation shown by regional groupings, particularly Asean.

He said that the groups share information, evaluate the best measures and hold regular meetings to keep members engaged.

"Asean has been very important in getting regional political solidarity around the control of bird flu and finding what works best on control measures," he said.
"I am pleased with the way the regional entities have grabbed hold of it."

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Re: New H5N1 outbreaks defy logic

These outbreks defy logic only if you subscribe to "random mutations" and reassortment.

The outbreaks are quite predictable based on bird migration and recombination.

WHO needs to look at who is giving them advice. They should be able to figure out that the advice is VERY bad.

The Emporer Has No Clothes.
 
Re: New H5N1 outbreaks defy logic

niman said:
These outbreks defy logic only if you subscribe to "random mutations" and reassortment.

The outbreaks are quite predictable based on bird migration and recombination.

WHO needs to look at who is giving them advice. They should be able to figure out that the advice is VERY bad.

The Emporer Has No Clothes.

I am puzzled why Nabarro says outbreaks "defy logic"--even if he does subscribe to random mutation.

Is he in so many words stating that the current outbreaks do not fit a random mutation scenario? If so, WHY do the current outbreaks not fit random mutation theories?

What should "viral behavior" based on random mutations look like compared to what we are seeing?
 
Re: New H5N1 outbreaks defy logic

My reading of his comments was an assertion that the influenza virus in animals does not usually follow a sesonality in its pattern (in the same manner as seen in humans), and yet the H5N1 virus has done so in terms of its outbreaks in Asia. I do not know if this is an accurate interpretation or not.
 
Re: New H5N1 outbreaks defy logic

I don't get the logic in saying that there is no logic here.

If more birds get sick, more humans will be exposed and get AI.

More birds are getting sick because they are in the midst of an AI pandemic. Bird migration and B2B is plausible; weather conditions remain irrelevant.

Hence more humans are getting sick.

What defie logic when talking about AI is when more humans get sick when few birds are sick. And that logic gap leads to an inference of H2H risk, to my understanding, assuming the "more" = logarithmic growth (Dr. T.)

I think the reporter is trying to get the day's "sensational news" award.

J.
 
Re: New H5N1 outbreaks defy logic

When did an epizootic have to occur or more specifically not occur during a specific season? In 1918 the virus emerged as a full blown epidemic not in winter but in early summer. The pandemic started in late summer. Why can't the timing overlap because of either migration and/or new hosts? And I have to ask why can't the two be connected? Humans or their activities may most certainly influence the behavior of the virus.
 
Re: New H5N1 outbreaks defy logic

we saw some
seasonality last year and the year before
in H5N1 already
 
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