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New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

FluBossie

Well-known member
New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO
Mon May 11, 2009 9:18pm EDT

GENEVA (Reuters) - The new H1N1 virus shows no signs of sustained person-to-person spread outside of North America and so has not yet tipped over into a pandemic, a top World Health Organization official said on Monday.

Dr. Keiji Fukuda, acting WHO assistant director-general, also told a news briefing it was too early to say whether the swine flu virus would cause a pandemic.

"We remain at phase 5," Fukuda said, referring to the agency's second-highest pandemic alert level. "It is still a confusing situation."

WHO said its laboratories have confirmed 4,379 infections with the new strain.

But the worst impact is still in North America, with 60 deaths. The United States alone has 2,600 cases.

"We know that we are seeing things change on an almost daily basis," Fukuda said.

"We are evaluating the clinical features, we are evaluating the epidemiology and the spread. We will continue to evaluate what is the impact on both people and countries."

In Mexico, millions of children, many of them wearing surgical masks and clutching hand sanitizer, went back to classes for the first time in two weeks.

Schools throughout Mexico were scrubbed from floor to ceiling last week and the 20 million students who returned on Monday were told to follow strict hygiene rules.

"If everyone respects them, we're going to have a safe and healthy return," Education Minister Alonso Lujambio said.

ITCHY MASKS

Although there is no evidence to show masks protect people who have not been infected, many children wore them. "I know it's to protect us but the mask is very uncomfortable. It makes me itchy," said Pamela, a 10-year-old at a school in the capital.

Mexican health officials said the death toll there has risen to 56 as results come in of tests on people who died in recent weeks. Mexico has had a total of 2,059 cases of the swine flu distributed throughout all but three of the country's 32 states, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said.

An international team reported the virus appears to act like a pandemic strain, being more easily passed along than the regular seasonal flu.

Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London and colleagues reported in the journal Science that as many as 23,000 Mexicans were likely infected with the swine flu virus. Continued...


They also found evidence to support the theory that the outbreak originated in the village of La Gloria in the state of Veracruz, which had been the subject of intense speculation.

CHINESE QUARANTINE

Chinese authorities were searching for 150 people who took the same flights as mainland China's first confirmed case of the new flu, state media said.

State television and the Xinhau news agency said the government had tracked down and quarantined about 150 people who flew with the 30-year-old man, first from Tokyo to Beijing and then from Beijing to the Sichuan provincial capital, Chengdu. But another 150 or so were unaccounted for.

The patient himself, a Chinese student in the U.S. state of Missouri, was doing well.

Thai scientists who infected piglets with the new virus said it caused flu-like symptoms in the animals before disappearing, just like many of the human cases.

Late on Monday, public health officials in Cuba reported its first confirmed case of the new flu in a student from Mexico.

Europeans were relaxed about the outbreaks. Italian farm group Coldiretti said that while one in 10 Italians had stopped eating pork despite reassurances the virus is not food-borne, 12 percent were actually buying more pork because prices had fallen since the outbreak.

"They say it's better to prevent than cure but I think the reaction has been alarmist. That is more the fault of the WHO (than the government)," said Sami Husein, 32, a Madrid engineer.

"There have been fewer deaths than for any normal flu, so for now I don't understand how it could be a major problem."

The U.S.-based People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals said it had asked the CDC to release any evidence that would show the outbreak originated on a factory farm.

(Reporting by Alistair Bell and Adriana Barrera in Mexico, Michael Kahn in London, Ben Blanchard in Beijing, Jeff Franks in Havana; Writing by Maggie Fox; Editing by Eric Walsh)

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http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE5480IR20090512?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
 
Re: New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

Ed: The above post (#1) makes for a good Disney Movie - but as fact, flies in the face of this ASSOCIATED PRESS REPORT of May 4, 2009 below: NOTE THE HIGHLIGHTED PARAGRAPH in reference to Hygene, and the wonderful and expected "safe and healthy returns" (outcomes) mentioned above.


Fears of flu rebound as Mexico seeks 'normalcy'
By MARK STEVENSON,
The Associated Press
11:58 p.m. May 4, 2009

MEXICO CITY — Mexico announced a return to "normalcy" on Monday, preparing to reopen businesses and schools even as the virus sickened more than 1,400 people in 20 countries.

World health officials said the global epidemic is still in its early stages, and that a pandemic could be declared in the days to come. But Mexico's president said it was waning at its epicenter, justifying Wednesday's end to a five-day nationwide shutdown he credits for reducing the spread of the new virus.

Already, streets in the capital seemed more lively, with more vehicles and fewer people wearing face masks. Some cafes even reopened ahead of time. President Felipe Calderon said universities and high schools will reopen on Thursday, and younger schoolchildren should report back to school on May 11.
"The school schedule will resume with the guarantee that our educational institutions are in adequate hygienic condition," promised Calderon, who called on parents to join educators in a "collective" cleansing and inspection of schools nationwide.

"This is about going back to normalcy but with everyone taking better care," Calderon said.

Parents and teachers will turn away children who appear sick. The government is spending $15 million for detergent, bleach and soap to clean buildings, in a country where 12 percent of the nearly 250,000 schools – about 30,000 – lack running water or bathrooms.


SNIP -

But other experts said the known cases are almost certainly only a fraction of what's out there, meaning more illnesses could surface once crowds gather again in Mexico.

"It's clear that it's just about everywhere in Mexico. I think now there is considerable person-to-person transmission," Widdowson said. And now that the virus is taking off in the U.S., chances of severe cases could rise as well.

"We've seen in many of the cases in Mexico, there's been sometimes five to seven days of being mildly ill with increasing respiratory distress and then being hospitalized, and then spending five days or a week in hospital, so that's a timeline of two weeks," he said.

SNIP

The WHO was studying whether to raise the pandemic alert to 6, its highest level, which would mean a global outbreak has begun. WHO uses the term pandemic to refer to geographic spread rather than severity. Pandemics aren't necessarily deadly. The past two pandemics – in 1957 and 1968 – were relatively mild.

"We do not know how long we will have until we move to Phase 6," WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said. "We are not there yet. The criteria will be met when we see in another region outside North America, showing very clear evidence of community-level transmission."

Good hygiene can be a challenge in Mexico's crowded schools – a problem illustrated by 10-year-old Carolina Arteaga, who wandered with a plastic cup in downtown Mexico City Monday, begging money from people outside gleaming office towers. She had no surgical mask and no gloves as she eagerly rubbed a few coins together with grubby fingers.

"I forgot it at home," the fourth-grader said when asked why she didn't have her mask.

Carolina will soon be returning to school and says she knows to wash her hands frequently. But because she needs to collect money to help her mother buy food, such instructions probably won't be carried out.

SNIP

Find this article at:
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/may/04/med-swine-flu-050409/?world/mexico&zIndex=93343
 
Re: New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO
Mon May 11, 2009 9:18pm EDT


"We remain at phase 5," Fukuda said, referring to the agency's second-highest pandemic alert level. "It is still a confusing situation."

WHO said its laboratories have confirmed 4,379 infections with the new strain.


http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE5480IR20090512?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
The situation is confusing only to those who read the political nonsense issued by WHO, who is trying to claim that a phase 6 pandemic is phase 5.

They can't even meet their own definition of two contries, so they merge Mexico, United states, and Canada into one North America group, while those in Asia hide the positives and limit testing to "control" the sustained transmission.
 
Re: New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

for reference


WHO hasn?t seen sustained, person-to-person spread of the
disease outside North America, so the agency?s pandemic alert
will remain at phase 5, the second-highest level, Briand said.
The alert won?t be raised unless there?s evidence of community
spread in another part of the world, she said. http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0&Intro=intro3


Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region
. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html




<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="741"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="446"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="446"><tbody><tr><td>WHO regional offices


<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="400"> <tbody><tr> <td>
WHO_Regions.gif
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> WHO Member States are grouped into six regions. Each region has a regional office. The map shows the WHO regions and the location of the regional offices.
:: Regional Office for Africa
:: Regional Office for the Americas
:: Regional Office for South-East Asia
:: Regional Office for Europe
:: Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
:: Regional Office for the Western Pacific </td> <td height="17" valign="top" width="12">
shim.gif
</td> </tr></tbody></table> </td> <td class="line" align="left" valign="top" width="1">
shim.gif
</td> <td width="10">
shim.gif
</td> <td valign="top" width="142"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="142"> <tbody><tr> <td width="142">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr><tr><td colspan="5"> <!-- include ftr--> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="10" width="741"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Re: New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

for reference


WHO hasn?t seen sustained, person-to-person spread of the
disease outside North America, so the agency?s pandemic alert
will remain at phase 5, the second-highest level, Briand said.
The alert won?t be raised unless there?s evidence of community
spread in another part of the world, she said. http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0&Intro=intro3


Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region . While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html




<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=741><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=446><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=446><TBODY><TR><TD>WHO regional offices


<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=400><TBODY><TR><TD>
WHO_Regions.gif
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>WHO Member States are grouped into six regions. Each region has a regional office. The map shows the WHO regions and the location of the regional offices.
:: Regional Office for Africa
:: Regional Office for the Americas
:: Regional Office for South-East Asia
:: Regional Office for Europe
:: Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
:: Regional Office for the Western Pacific
</TD><TD height=17 vAlign=top width=12>
shim.gif
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=line vAlign=top width=1 align=left>
shim.gif
</TD><TD width=10>
shim.gif
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=142><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=142><TBODY><TR><TD width=142>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=5><!-- include ftr--><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=10 cellPadding=0 width=741><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Neither Spain nor New Zealand are in North America.
 
Re: New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

Neither Spain nor New Zealand are in North America.
NZ MOH today

isolation is continuing to decrease. Exact numbers are unavailable at this time, however, it is estimated to be fewer than 70 cases.

"The fact that the number of confirmed and probable cases have remained stable suggests that our border control and containment measures are proving effective, and I would like to thank all the public health staff, and staff working at the airports who are working around the clock to provide health screening services; advice to travellers; contact tracing and treating suspected cases in the community. There's a huge team working tirelessly around the country to limit the spread of this virus," Dr McGrath said.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=231623&postcount=13
 
Re: New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

NZ MOH today

isolation is continuing to decrease. Exact numbers are unavailable at this time, however, it is estimated to be fewer than 70 cases.

"The fact that the number of confirmed and probable cases have remained stable suggests that our border control and containment measures are proving effective, and I would like to thank all the public health staff, and staff working at the airports who are working around the clock to provide health screening services; advice to travellers; contact tracing and treating suspected cases in the community. There's a huge team working tirelessly around the country to limit the spread of this virus," Dr McGrath said.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=231623&postcount=13
These comments are much like those made in New York, claiming that infections were largely limited to the high school students in Queens and contacts.

The virus didn't suddenly appear. It was circulating in the US prior to detection, and was also circualting elsewhere, before screening picked up.

New Zealand isn't monitoring any non-contact with mild disease who doesn't go to the doctor, or does go to the doctor and doesn't get tested, or doesn't get tested beyong a rapid influenza A test.

The best way to reduce the level of reported swine H1N1 is to not test for swine H1N1 beyond airport screening.

The virus produces mild disease and is easily transmitted, agency proclamations notwithstanding. In the US, the state labs have already thrown in the towel and are focusing on more severe cases.
 
Re: New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

numbers outside America are not climbing yet as they did in USA,Mex.

just wait a few days/weeks, why does it matter ?
 
Re: New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO

The geniuses at WHO have discovered a way to prevent future pandemics: Just keep changing the definitions of all the terms.

Brilliant!

If a pandemic happens and no one declares it, does it really exist? sheesh
 
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