Re: Neurological Manifestations as marker of H1N1 virulence?
The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal?
Prognostic Factors in Influenza-Associated Encephalopathy
Takashi Nagao
Published: 08/21/2008
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Discussion
An outbreak of encephalopathy suspected to have been caused by influenza infection prompted a national survey of influenza-associated encephalopathy at all hospitals and pediatric clinics in Japan, as well as this analysis of 442 cases. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the prognostic factors of influenza-associated encephalopathy. The mortality rate was as high as 30% without treatment.[1] Therefore, for the administration of intensive care, it is important to identify the factors that affect its prognosis. Using multivariate analysis, we identified several factors that were related to the poor prognosis of this disease.
A severely elevated transaminase level, thrombocytopenia, and hematuria or proteinuria were associated with an unfavorable outcome in influenza-associated encephalopathy.
Although the pathogenesis of this disease is still unclear, several reports[8-10] have suggested that it involves cytokines, such as soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, interleukin-1β (IL-1β), IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), IL-8, and IL-10. Nerve and liver cells may be induced to undergo apoptosis in influenza-associated encephalopathy patients as a consequence of hypercytokinemia, resulting in disseminated intravascular coagulopathy and multiple organ failure.[8,10-13] Studies have reported hemophagocytosis in influenza-associated encephalopathy patients, suggesting the activation of macrophages and microglia cells by hypercytokinemia.[14] A severely elevated transaminase level, thrombocytopenia, and hematuria or proteinuria may be associated with disseminated intravascular coagulopathy, multiple organ failure, and hemophagocytosis resulting from hypercytokinemia induced by this disease.[8,10,11]
We also showed that hyperglycemia is a factor leading to poor prognosis. IL-6 may lead to increased cortisol levels, followed by a pronounced dose-dependent increase in blood
glucose.[15,16] Therefore, we postulated that the systemic hypercytokinemia in influenza-associated encephalopathy causes hyperglycemia and that the glucose levels reflect the degree of pathogenicity.
Hypoglycemia provided a significant P value of <0.05 in univariate analysis. However, this did not result in a significant difference in the multivariate analysis, which was probably because the number of patients with hypoglycemia in multivariate analysis was reduced from 8 to only 2 cases, or 1.1% of patients, because of missing data. Hypoglycemia is a symptom of Reye syndrome with a very poor prognosis.[5,17,18] Medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency is the most common disorder of fatty acid β-oxidation, and occurs acutely in Reye's-like syndrome, which is often provoked by infection.[19] Reye's-like syndrome is similar to influenza-associated encephalopathy in several of its symptoms, such as loss of consciousness, seizures, and increased aminotransferase levels.[1,20] Therefore, we postulated that influenza-associated encephalopathy may include a metabolic disorder, such as medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency.
High-grade fever, particularly ≥41?C, showed a tendency toward being a prognostic factor in the multivariate analysis. Some patients with a poor outcome exhibit a mitochondrial β-oxidation disorder evoked by inactivated carnitine palmitoyltransferase II during high-grade fever in influenza-associated encephalopathy.[21] Analysis of the genotypes and allele compositions of carnitine palmitoyltransferase II have revealed a thermolabile phenotype that occurs more frequently in influenza-associated encephalopathy patients than in healthy subjects.[21] In addition, the use of the nonsalicylate antipyretic drug diclofenac to alleviate fever affected the prognosis of the disease, and the use of mefenamic acid tended to also influence the prognosis, whereas the use of acetaminophen was considered to have little effect. In May 2001, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare banned the use of these antipyretic drugs to alleviate fever in influenza infection based on the data of the Collaborative Study Group on Influenza-Associated Encephalopathy.[1] However, it is still unclear whether these drugs are related to the pathogenesis of influenza-associated encephalopathy. Shiga-like toxin II or Shiga-like toxin II-stimulated cytokines may change the brain penetration of diclofenac sodium and mefenamic acid, and consequently increase the risk of the drugs having central nervous system side effects.[22]
We did not find a significant correlation between the prognosis of influenza-associated encephalopathy and flu vaccination record. A more extensive study is required to reveal whether flu vaccination can improve the prognosis after developing the disease because only 13 patients, or 3.1% of the 442 cases, had been immunized against flu.
The survey of influenza-associated encephalopathy is continuing. However, some parts of the questionnaires have been changed and fewer sites are now included in the survey. These changes were made mainly because the Private Information Protection Law came into effect in Japan in 2003, making it very difficult to obtain individual information. We did not obtain information regarding the therapy for influenza-associated encephalopathy because there were no standardized therapeutic protocols between 1998 and 2002. Recently, it has been reported that certain therapeutic regimens can improve the prognosis of influenza-associated encephalopathy.[6,7] In 2005, therapies such as methylprednisolone pulse, plasma exchange, and hypothermia therapy were proposed by the Collaborative Study Group on Influenza-Associated Encephalopathy, and further studies to improve influenza-associated encephalopathy prognosis via therapy are currently underway.
In conclusion, we identified several factors related to the poor prognosis of influenza-associated encephalopathy. Use of diclofenac sodium was the causal factor of poor prognosis. The other factors seem to reflect systemic hypercytokinemia, which is thought to play a role in the pathogenesis of the disease. However, all of these factors (with the exception of the use of diclofenac sodium) may be secondary to the disease process because they are seen in subjects who are moribund from a number of causes. Although these factors cannot be used to make an early diagnosis, our results have 2 major implications: the prognostic factors that we identified are easy to examine clinically, and these factors are important for the administration of intensive care in cases of influenza-associated encephalopathy.