https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2023/02/16/2023.02.15.528772.full.pdf
Evidence for an aquatic origin of influenza virus and the order Articulavirales
ME Petrone, R Parry, JCO Mifsud, K Van Brussel… - bioRxiv, 2023 - biorxiv.org
The emergence of novel disease-causing viruses in mammals is part of the long
evolutionary history of viruses. Tracing these evolutionary histories contextualises virus spill …
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this is ridiculous. Holmes concludes that since influenza-like viruses
infects humans and corals, it must have existed before these host species
diverged in evolution.
But even current very similar viruses with a TMRCA of only some years
frequently infect hosts with a TMRCA of millions of years.
TMRCA = time of the most recent common ancestor
The important question in this sort of analysis -and the most natural question
to be asked in this context- is : what's the TMRCA of the involved genomes ?
Yet Holmes avoids to talk about this.
He does not give an estimate of the TMRCA ,
while TMRCA estimates were so essential and common to his previous
work end papers. Not even when asked at twitter.
Why ?
Is it maybe, because it won't support his theory, which jumps
from a few thousand years of viral evolution -which is all that have-
to 600 million years ?
All the rhetorik in the paper seems to aim at confusing the reader
about this giant leap in numbers. Not specifying them gives a
feeling -at best- of "small" and "big". This makes it easier
to draw unchallenged conclusions.
I think, it's the current scientific system that rewards the
emergence of such extraordinary claims.
But not the figuring out of the truth behind them.
> Articulavirales have evolved over at least 600M years ??
You would hardly have called these 600M-anchestors
"Articulavirales" by current standards.
Or even "virales" ?!?
Take the Wuhan Spiny Eel influenza virus.
Just calling it "influenza B" admits that it emerged
_after- the TMRCA of influenza A and B.
So, _after_ flu separated into A and B infecting
humans and birds. Just some thousand years ago.
