Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Tropical Storm NATE Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 081458
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
...NATE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/081458.shtml
----------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm NATE Forecast Discussion
000
WTNT45 KNHC 081458
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NATE HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION
OF 40 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND RECENT STRONGER WIND
REPORTS FROM ELEVATED PEMEX OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE NATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
NATE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IN A
DAY OR SO...NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...THE
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE...AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST GFS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO VIABLE
SCENARIOS BUT HAS NOT BEEN SHIFTED AS FAR AS THE TVCA CONSENSUS.
THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO PERFORM A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP REDUCE
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
NATE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR...IS FORECAST TO
SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 20.0N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.4N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.0N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.8N 92.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 22.5N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.1N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.6N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.0N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/081458.shtml?
000
WTNT35 KNHC 081458
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
...NATE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/081458.shtml
----------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm NATE Forecast Discussion
000
WTNT45 KNHC 081458
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NATE HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION
OF 40 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND RECENT STRONGER WIND
REPORTS FROM ELEVATED PEMEX OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE NATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
NATE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IN A
DAY OR SO...NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...THE
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE...AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST GFS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO VIABLE
SCENARIOS BUT HAS NOT BEEN SHIFTED AS FAR AS THE TVCA CONSENSUS.
THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO PERFORM A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP REDUCE
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
NATE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR...IS FORECAST TO
SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 20.0N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.4N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.0N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.8N 92.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 22.5N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.1N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.6N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.0N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/081458.shtml?
