tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Nat Med
. 2021 Jun 29.
doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01437-z. Online ahead of print.
Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19
Marcia C Castro[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Susie Gurzenda[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Cassio M Turra[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sun Kim[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Theresa Andrasfay[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Noreen Goldman[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Brazil has been heavily affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we used data on reported total deaths in 2020 and in January-April 2021 to measure and compare the death toll across states. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e[SUB]0[/SUB]) of 1.3 years, a mortality level not seen since 2014. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 (e[SUB]65[/SUB]) in 2020 was 0.9 years, setting Brazil back to 2012 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 9.1% the female-male gap in e[SUB]0[/SUB]. Among states, Amazonas lost 60.4% of the improvements in e[SUB]0[/SUB] since 2000. In the first 4 months of 2021, COVID-19 deaths represented 107% of the total 2020 figures. Assuming that death rates would have been equal to 2019 all-cause rates in the absence of COVID-19, COVID-19 deaths in 2021 have already reduced e[SUB]0[/SUB] in 2021 by 1.8 years, which is slightly larger than the reduction estimated for 2020 under similar assumptions.
. 2021 Jun 29.
doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01437-z. Online ahead of print.
Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19
Marcia C Castro[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Susie Gurzenda[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Cassio M Turra[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Sun Kim[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Theresa Andrasfay[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Noreen Goldman[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34188224
- DOI: 10.1038/s41591-021-01437-z
Abstract
Brazil has been heavily affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we used data on reported total deaths in 2020 and in January-April 2021 to measure and compare the death toll across states. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e[SUB]0[/SUB]) of 1.3 years, a mortality level not seen since 2014. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 (e[SUB]65[/SUB]) in 2020 was 0.9 years, setting Brazil back to 2012 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 9.1% the female-male gap in e[SUB]0[/SUB]. Among states, Amazonas lost 60.4% of the improvements in e[SUB]0[/SUB] since 2000. In the first 4 months of 2021, COVID-19 deaths represented 107% of the total 2020 figures. Assuming that death rates would have been equal to 2019 all-cause rates in the absence of COVID-19, COVID-19 deaths in 2021 have already reduced e[SUB]0[/SUB] in 2021 by 1.8 years, which is slightly larger than the reduction estimated for 2020 under similar assumptions.