tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Nat Commun
. 2020 Oct 6;11(1):5006.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4.
Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase
Liang Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xavier Didelot[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jing Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Gary Wong[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Yi Shi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenjun Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], George F Gao[SUP] 1 5 [/SUP], Yuhai Bi[SUP] 6 7 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.
. 2020 Oct 6;11(1):5006.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4.
Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase
Liang Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xavier Didelot[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jing Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Gary Wong[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Yi Shi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenjun Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], George F Gao[SUP] 1 5 [/SUP], Yuhai Bi[SUP] 6 7 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33024095
- DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.